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NEW YORK (Reuters) – With two days to go, Democrat Joe Biden has dominant national leadership over President Donald Trump amid deep voter concerns about the coronavirus pandemic, but Trump keeps his hopes alive by staying competitive in the undecided states that could decide the White House race.
Biden’s national leadership over the Republican president has been relatively stable in recent months as the public health crisis persists. It is ahead 51% to 43% in the latest Reuters / Ipsos poll conducted October 27-29.
But Trump is still close to Biden on enough state battlefields to give him the 270 state Electoral College votes needed to win a second term. Reuters / Ipsos polls show the race remains a game changer in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.
Trump is also down five points in Pennsylvania and nine points in Michigan and Wisconsin, three other states that helped give him an Electoral College victory in 2016 over Democrat Hillary Clinton, who won the popular vote.
But even without Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump can win again if he keeps all the other states he won in 2016.
Trump’s deficit in the polls has been fueled in part by an erosion in support from two large parts of his 2016 winning coalition, whites without college degrees and older Americans, and by public disapproval of his handling of the pandemic. , which has become the dominant. problem in the race.
Biden and Trump have taken completely different approaches to managing COVID-19, which has killed more than 227,000 people in the United States and cost millions more their jobs. Trump has repeatedly downplayed the threat and promised it will end soon, while Biden has promised to prioritize stricter efforts to contain it.
More than three-quarters of American adults say they are personally concerned about the health crisis, and nearly 60% disapprove of the way Trump has responded, Reuters / Ipsos polls show.
Biden scores higher than Trump on his ability to handle the pandemic, and about 30% of Americans say his vote this year is largely due to his perception of who would be better to handle the crisis.
ECONOMIC CONCERNS
While Trump still has a slight edge over Biden on who would run the economy better, that has become less of a concern for many voters during the pandemic. Only 21% of likely voters said they are mostly looking for a president who is strong on the economy and job creation.
Trump has been unable to escape blame for the economic slowdown and job losses caused by the pandemic. Nearly half of likely voters in three of the state’s largest battlefields – Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – blame continued school and business closures on “poor leadership and the political decisions of President Trump.”
Trump’s response to the pandemic has hurt him with older Americans, who are most at risk of contracting the virus. Polls show Biden’s 4-point lead among voters who are at least 55 years old, a group Trump won by 14 points in 2016.
Trump’s lead with non-college whites, another large component of his winning coalition in 2016, has also narrowed this year. The latest polls show that Trump leads among non-college whites by 18 percentage points, up from 30 points in 2016.
Biden has also been successful in cutting Trump’s support from college-educated white women, suburban men, and independents. Reuters / Ipsos polls this month showed Biden won 27 points over white college women, while Clinton won them by 15 points in 2016. Biden also leads by 18 points among independent voters, whom Trump beat by 7 points. in 2016.
Biden now leads with the suburban men by 12 points. In March, they supported Trump by 1 point.
“Trump has never tried to expand his appeal in any way, and that has been true throughout his presidency and not just the campaign,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant.
“His theory was that he didn’t need to expand his base because independents who voted for him over Hillary would also vote for him over any liberal Democrat,” he said.
That theory was more difficult to realize against Biden, who ran as a moderate in the crowded Democratic presidential primaries against more liberal candidates.
More than a month ago, nearly nine out of 10 Biden supporters and nine out of 10 Trump supporters said they were “completely sure” they would not change their minds. The latest Reuters / Ipsos poll shows that only 6% of likely voters currently do not endorse a candidate from a major party. Four years ago, the number of equally undecided voters was three times higher.
(Reporting by Chris Kahn in New York and John Whitesides in Washington; Edited by Ross Colvin and Alistair Bell)
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