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KUALA LUMPUR: In the midst of an intense campaign in the final days of Sabah’s state elections on Wednesday (September 23), it was not the proceedings in East Malaysia that caught the public’s attention.
In Kuala Lumpur, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim declared that he had “strong and convincing” support from the majority of members of Parliament to form a new government.
He was scheduled to meet with the king on Tuesday, but the royal hearing was postponed because the king was unwell and had to be hospitalized.
At his press conference, Anwar said that the government led by Muhyiddin Yassin has indeed fallen, but the latter dismissed his claim as a mere accusation. “Until proven otherwise, the Perikatan Nasional government is still standing firm and I am the legal prime minister,” Muhyiddin said.
Here are some of the possible scenarios for how Anwar’s claim could affect the Malaysian political scene:
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF A PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY OF ANWAR?
Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said this was not the first time Anwar had announced such takeover attempts, pointing to earlier attempts after the 2008 and 2014 general elections.
“Anwar is not unheard of for all these stunts, so people are still wondering if this is another ‘crying wolf’ pose. Like Jerry Maguire’s ‘show me the money,’ people ask ‘show me most,’ “he said.
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Similarly, Professor Dr. Ahmad Martadha Mohamed, who heads the Governance and Integrity Group at the School of Law, Government and International Studies at Universti Utara Malaysia, noted that when Mr. Anwar made the announcement, none of his allies Politicians from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition were present.
His press conference was not attended by allies such as the Democratic Action Party (DAP), Parti Amanah Negara and Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan), he said.
“The people next to him were his wife, Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, and PKR Secretary General Saifuddin Nasution. It’s more like a political stunt or trick, similar to 2014 when he made a similar announcement, but nothing materialized.” said Dr. Ahmad Martadha.
HOW WILL ANWAR’S CLAIMS AFFECT THE SABAH SURVEYS?
Regarding Anwar’s announcement affecting the outcome of the state elections this Saturday in Sabah, Dr. Oh said that if Anwar had a majority, it would be better if Warisan Chairman Shafie Apdal reaffirmed his support for Anwar.
“In the ‘kingmaker’ seats, which are mainly Kadazandusun-Murut seats, I think they are still somewhat hesitant between restoring Sabah’s rights on the one hand and development on the other if the federal parties are not voted on.” .
“So if the federal party is aligned with Shafie and Shafie reaffirms their support for Anwar, then that’s fine, they will vote for Shafie’s side, be it UPKO or Warisan and so on.
“So it depends on Shafie’s decision,” Dr. Oh said.
UPKO refers to the United Progressive Kinabalu Organization, a state political party in the Warisan Plus coalition.
Voting for the Sabah state elections falls on September 26, 2020 (Photo: Bernama)
Overall, for Sabah and Sarawak, Professor Ahmad Martadha said, Anwar’s announcement is likely not to have much of an impact, as both states generally prioritize the well-being of their own population.
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“In Sabah, a lot of people are voting based on local parties and local issues,” said the Kedah-based political analyst, explaining that issues such as illegal immigration to the state had been a hot topic for the past 20 years in politics. of Sabah. , along with other topics such as native land titles and infrastructure development.
“Similarly, Sarawak and GPS (the ruling political coalition Gabungan Parti Sarawak) will play it safe as they are now part of the federal government and have benefited from being in the Perikatan Nasional coalition,” said Professor Ahmad Martadha, referring to to ministerial positions held by GPS deputies, as well as oil royalty payments.
“Unless you are sure the federal government is losing support, they will still consider supporting whoever can ensure their interests are protected,” he added.
WHAT OPTIONS DOES THE KING HAVE?
Both analysts explained that Malaysian King Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah has two options to proceed, if Mr. Anwar really demonstrated that he has a convincing majority to form the next government.
The Prime Minister of Malaysia, Muhyiddin Yassin, and the leader of the opposition, Anwar Ibrahim. (Photos: Bernama, Reuters / Lim Huey Teng)
“If the king grants Anwar an audience and is convinced by the majority of Anwar and others, he has two options. One is to appoint Mr. Anwar as prime minister, as he did with Muhyiddin, ”said Dr. Oh, referring to Muhyiddin’s appointment as the country’s top leader after the fall of the PH government earlier this year.
“Or be like the governor of Sabah and, following Muhyiddin’s advice, dissolve parliament and allow new elections,” he added.
WHERE IS MAHATHIR IN ALL OF THIS?
The absence of former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and his newly formed Pejuang party was not a surprise, said Professor Ahmad Martadha.
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“It is understandable, because both Tun Dr Mahathir and Anwar have belittled each other in the past. The dispute has been around for a long time, so it is no secret that Dr. Mahathir disagrees with Anwar’s team, ”he said.
Dr. Oh said that if Mr. Anwar really had a large majority, the former prime minister would have to “face reality.”
“He will have to decide, in a sense, between his disdain for Anwar to become prime minister or his hatred for UMNO and PAS for being corrupt and extremist.”
“In any case, it only has five members, it’s not much,” Dr. Oh noted.
