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PETALING JAYA: Umno and PAS will be the biggest winners if Dr. Mahathir Mohamad manages to move a parliamentary motion of no confidence in Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, two speakers say.
“The Malaysian terrain is now not in favor of PH, who did not make the best of his 22 months in power with internal struggles. So if there is a vote of no confidence, Muhyiddin may lose but Pakatan Harapan will not win, ”said Azmi Hassan of the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
If the motion fails, it would be the beginning of the end of Mahathir’s long political career, he said.
He and Awang Azman Pawi of the Malaysian Universiti agreed that if the prime minister lost his majority in the Dewan Rakyat and was forced to call early elections, the two parties most likely to win would be Umno and PAS, who will likely compete as equipment.
“PPBM, which is outside of PH, will be in the middle of nowhere, and PH will be without a Malaysian party,” they said.
Mahathir has filed a notice of a confidence motion against Muhyiddin to be presented when the Dewan Rakyat meets on May 18. However, the motion is unlikely to be debated and voted on, as government affairs take precedence over all other motions or private members. ‘invoices.
Azmi said the earliest the motion could be debated would be July, “by then Muhyiddin would have solidified his support.”
He said many people did not want a general election to be called amid the Covid-19 crisis, which has almost completely stopped the economy.
“So I think there will be almost certain support from Umno, PAS and GPS for Muhyiddin” if the motion is voted on.
Awang Azman said that Muhyiddin, as prime minister, was in a good position to strengthen his position.
“But if Mahathir’s motion succeeds in any way, Muhyiddin will lose because Umno and PAS will probably join the components of Barisan Nasional and other parts less PPBM.”
“PH is unlikely to win a quick election, they don’t have strong Malaysian grassroots support,” he said.
He said that if Muhyiddin could prove he had the numbers in Parliament, it would mean that he was the dominant leader in PPBM and that would give him a big advantage in party polls.
Analysts said the problems of the Mahathir faction added to the uncertainty in Kedah, where Mahathir’s son Mukhriz is kissing menteri.
Mukhriz was speculated to be losing support among PPBM assembly members in the state, after most party leaders chose to side with their president Muhyiddin to form a new coalition with Umno and PAS.
PAS has 15 seats in the 36-member assembly, while Umno has two. There are 19 assembly members who participated in a Pakatan Harapan ticket in the 2018 elections: seven from PKR, six from PPBM, four from Amanah and two from DAP.
Azmi said that if Mukhriz were overthrown, it would affect Mahathir’s influence on PPBM, but it would not be a “coup de grace”.
“It will influence those on the fence about supporting Muhyiddin,” he said.
Awang Azman said that if Mukhriz were replaced as a menteri kiss, it would be as good as a “declaration of war” by Muhyiddin against Mahathir.
“I think the talk of change in Kedah aims to put pressure on Mukhriz and Mahathir, especially before the PPBM elections,” he said.
Mukhriz is contesting the presidency, while Mahathir is not contesting for the post of party president.
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