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PETALING JAYA: One analyst says Pakatan Harapan will have its hands full trying to retain its conventional base of supporters in the next general election.
Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said PH will be busy putting out fires to retain the votes of his supporters, some of whom have become disillusioned with the old government coalition.
PH should not fantasize about winning over conservative Malaysian voters, he said. In the 2018 general elections, Umno and PAS accounted for more than 75% of the Malaysian votes, but a split of votes between the two parties led to the victory of Pakatan Harapan.
“Umno and PAS deployed many candidates in the same electoral districts, but in total they obtained more than 75% of the Malaysian votes,” he told FMT.
Heading into the next general election, there is less support for PH, he said, attributing it to a sense of futility among supporters having seen elected representatives defect to form “backdoor governments.”
Oh said there is a growing awareness that it would be almost impossible for PH to win with an absolute majority in the next general election as the ruling Malaysian-centric parties come together as an electoral front.
“A new leadership can do a good thing to retain some of PH’s mainstream supporters who are disgusted by their previously elected traitors and the grandiose but empty promises made, especially by Anwar (Ibrahim).
“But such new leadership would still have little appeal to the overwhelming majority of conservative voters who evidently still prefer the traditional distribution of pamphlets in exchange for votes.”
He also dismissed the insistence of the PKR secretary general, Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, that opposition leader Anwar could still produce the figures to get Putrajaya back, saying this can only be done through “very attractive offers”.
“If they still intend to change the deputies of Umno, then very attractive offers must be made quickly, ranging from immunities to positions of power. Otherwise, it’s back to licking PH’s own wounds, ”he said.
Amanah President Mohamad Sabu had acknowledged that the opposition faced an uphill task in gaining voter support in the upcoming general elections, saying that some had given up voting for their elected representatives.
But Saifuddin maintained that Anwar still had the numbers to change the government, saying this could be done through legal statements or in the Dewan Rakyat.
Another analyst, Awang Azman Pawi from Universiti Malaya, said PKR had better ranks and strengthened grassroots support to do its best in the upcoming elections.
He told the FMT that each general election has its key issues on the battlefield, and that the legitimacy of the current government is a key issue that will be addressed.
“There are also issues about the impact of Covid-19 on education and on managing the economy during this pandemic, including issues such as loan default, lack of job opportunities, unemployment, and business closures.
“So PH has more real problems in which to mount its electoral campaign and not just the perception of regaining the support of the people, especially with various parts of the community reeling from the economic and social effects of the pandemic,” he said.
