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CLAREMONT, California: Concerns have been raised in recent weeks that the incoming Joe Biden administration will come under pressure to take a tough stance against China given the bipartisan national consensus that China has become an adversary of states. United.
This competitive dynamic between the two countries is rooted in concerns about maritime disputes, human rights, political ideology and business practices, but has also included other dimensions: military rivalry, as well as concerns about the Belt and Road and 5G technologies.
While the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has highlighted many of these concerns in his administration, some of these points of contention have developed over decades and are not new.
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States around the world, particularly nations in Asia and the Pacific, fear this will fuel an unhealthy zero-sum competition in which they will be forced to choose between Washington and Beijing.
Many world leaders wonder if President-elect Biden can stabilize relations between the United States and China in the future as their rivalry intensifies.
Will the United States move away from engagement and cooperation and toward increased competition, possibly even containment?
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DEMONSTRATE WILLINGNESS TO WORK TOGETHER
While some facets of the Biden administration’s China policy will be firm, such as security and technology issues, my assessment is that the overall tone of the new White House toward China will improve.
Biden understands the importance of the US-China relationship and has framed it in positive terms. “If we can get this relationship right with a genuine new model, the possibilities are limitless,” he once said.
If so, we are likely to see efforts to foster partnerships with Beijing, foster mutual respect, and resume high-level communications between the two countries and their leaders.
Joe Biden met with China’s Xi Jinping in Los Angeles in 2012 when they were both vice presidents. (Photo: AFP)
For example, the two leaders are likely to communicate with each other to set the parameters for the new relationship between the United States and China. The two have shared a good personal relationship in the past.
During the Barack Obama administration, Xi referred to Biden as “an old friend of China.”
Strengthening the relationship at that level of leadership will allow both parties to candidly communicate their red lines and outline areas of potential collaboration as well as areas of strategic competence.
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Biden may also strive to resurrect the annual US-China economic and strategic dialogues initiated by the Bush and Obama administrations to address shared challenges, as well as areas of disagreement.
A small but important way to build more trust is to reopen American society to Chinese students, academics, and businesses. Re-welcoming Chinese seeking to study, work and immigrate to the United States will be an important step in fostering cordial and respectful relationships.
Taking into account China’s concern for Taiwan may be another important step. Biden can communicate that he will observe China’s core interests in Taiwan by placing select quotas on US arms sales to Taipei, ceasing high-profile visits by administration officials, and limiting US transit visas to visiting Taiwanese government leaders. the Americas.
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MULTILATERALLY ENGAGE CHINA IN AREAS OF MUTUAL INTEREST
Engaging partners in international efforts to combat global ills has been Biden’s repeated goal while in the US presidential election campaign, which could reap benefits by providing platforms for the US to further engage. China.
One of the first steps expected by the Biden administration will be to rejoin the World Health Organization and find ways to work with Xi in the fight against COVID-19 and other global health measures.
FILE PHOTO: The headquarters of the World Health Organization (WHO) is displayed during the World Health Assembly (WHA) following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 18 2020. REUTERS / Denis Balibouse
Another area where Biden and Xi can promise cooperation is climate change. Both leaders recognize that joint efforts by their countries are necessary to advance this global issue.
As part of this, one of Biden’s first actions as president will be to rejoin the Paris climate agreement, an act that will draw internal criticism as some in the United States view the agreement as a flawed agreement.
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Although controversial in the US, we also know that Biden’s team will seek to work with China (along with other permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany and the EU) to sign a new treaty with Iran to contain its nuclear program. .
Within Asia-Pacific, engaging China through ASEAN-led multilateral networks could socialize the country with norms of international behavior, particularly in regards to disputes in the South China Sea.
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NUANCING “THE QUAD”
Efforts must be renewed to avoid a direct collision between Washington and Beijing. To this end, Biden should seek to reduce the overtly anti-China signaling of “the Quad,” the Australia-Japan-India-United States partnership aimed at supporting a free and open Indo-Pacific.
While this four-country collaboration has important goals and needs to be enhanced in the years to come, it need not be publicly antagonistic or create a loss of public reputation for Beijing.
Canberra, Tokyo, New Delhi and Washington must do more to maintain cordiality and identify areas of cooperation with Beijing.
Overall, policymakers in China can be encouraged by Biden’s commitment to finding ways to partner with Beijing on common areas of concern such as climate change, COVID-19 measures and public health, global financial risk, non proliferation, academic exchanges, and Iran’s burgeoning nuclear program.
File photo of the national flags of the United States and China. (File Photo: REUTERS / Damir Sagolj)
It’s worth saying that it’s no secret that the incoming Biden administration’s focus on human rights is concerning to China, which interprets these words as a license for what they see as foreign activism and interference in sensitive internal affairs, including in Hong Kong and the treatment of Uighur and Christian Muslims in China.
This sharp difference in values between Washington and Beijing is clearly an issue that both sides will undoubtedly grapple with in the coming years.
However, while human rights are an important pillar of Biden’s beliefs, he is not likely to let the issue alter the entire relationship.
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BUT CHINA MUST ALSO PLAY BALL
But China must also want a productive relationship and avoid taking aggressive actions that will elicit more reactions in Washington. In a quid-pro-quo relationship, China must take steps to show goodwill in exchange for concessions that Biden can make.
For his part, Xi can reduce China’s bellicose conduct in the Himalayas, the East and South Seas of China and lessen its aggressive military exercises near Taiwan.
Beijing may also convey to Washington its desire to work with the new Biden administration on ways to address the North Korean nuclear crisis.
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POTENTIAL FOR A NEW US-CHINA RELATIONSHIP
Clearly, there are many areas of distrust and disagreement between Washington and Beijing spanning maritime disputes, contested political models, tariffs and trade, technology transfer, and intellectual property.
However, in an era of increasingly intense competition, Biden’s assumption of power in January 2021 carries the potential to turn a new leaf on U.S.-China ties and establish a mutual understanding of fundamental interests that stabilizes the relationship.
These efforts would go a long way toward rebuilding respect between the two countries and laying the foundations for a positive and peaceful collective future for Asia and the Pacific.
Ted Gover writes on foreign policy and is Director of the Tribal Administration Program at Claremont Graduate University.
