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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrats have the privilege of emerging from 14 U.S. Senate races with full control of Congress in Tuesday’s election, but the final results of at least five of those races may not be available for days. and, in some cases, months.
With President Donald Trump’s public disapproval weighing on Republicans across the country, voters will decide whether to end the political careers of conflicting Republican senators, including Trump ally Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and moderate Susan Collins of Maine, among others.
In total, 12 Republican-held and two Democrat-held seats are at stake, according to a Reuters analysis of three nonpartisan US election forecasters: the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Cook’s Political Report and Inside. Elections.
“There are dogfights all over the country,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in Congress, said at a campaign stop. He described the possibility of Republicans holding onto the Senate majority as a “50-50 proposal.”
Those odds seem optimistic, according to all three forecasters.
They predicted that Democrats could emerge with up to 55 of the 100 Senate seats, giving them a majority for the first time in a decade in both the Senate and the 435-seat House of Representatives, where they are expected to retain control.
Democrats hope to usher in a new political era in Washington if their presidential candidate Joe Biden also wins.
Although it is likely not to reach a 60-vote obstruction-proof majority, control of the Democratic Senate would greatly aid Biden’s legislative agenda or help hamper a second Trump term.
To win a majority, Democrats need to win just three Republican seats if Biden is elected president and Senator Kamala Harris exercises the Senate vote as vice president. Republicans now have a majority of 53 to 47 seats.
Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado is seen as the most vulnerable of more than half a dozen first-term rulers in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Montana and North Carolina. Democrats Doug Jones and Gary Peters are also on the defensive in Alabama and Michigan, respectively.
EXPECTED DELAYS IN RESULTS
The results of some contests are likely not known until after Election Day, due to the unprecedented volume of ballots mailed this year and the possible second round of elections in four races, according to analysts and election officials. state.
Delayed results could occur in Arizona and Maine, where Democrats are heavily favored to swap Republican seats. With races getting tighter in North Carolina and Iowa, analysts say Colorado could be the best chance for Democrats to show a victory on Election Night.
The final results of a four-way contest in Maine between Collins, Democrat Sara Gideon and two independent candidates could take up to two weeks, a state official said. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote on election night, the contest will be forced into automatic second round rounds.
Two elections for a pair of Senate seats in Georgia could face a similar fate, except that the second round elections would be delayed until January 5.
Democrat Mark Kelly could be poised to oust Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona. But county officials have up to 20 days to review the election results. McSally’s failed 2018 election contest against Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema took six days to produce a winner.
In Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters could be vulnerable to a setback from Republican John James, state election officials are warning that final results may not be available until Friday.
The outcome of the close races in Montana and South Carolina may not be known until Wednesday, according to state and Democratic Party election officials.
In the race for the United States Senate in Montana, Republican incumbent Steve Daines is side by side with Governor Steve Bullock. In South Carolina, Graham, a three-term Republican, faces an unprecedented challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison.
If Democrats emerge from the election with control of the Senate, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to let nothing stand in their way.
“We have a moral imperative for the American people to do a lot if we get a majority,” Schumer said. “There is nothing off the table.”
(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by Scott Malone and Howard Goller)
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