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SINGAPORE: I’ve seen it before.
On September 16, 2008, an optimistic Anwar Ibrahim announced that he had had the support of the majority of Malaysian Members of Parliament (MP), six months after he led the opposition to historically crush the parliamentary supermajority of two thirds of the then ruling Barisan Nasional. (BN).
It was Malaysian day. Anwar seemed ready to take over the Malaysian government.
That afternoon, he was moderating a political forum in Kota Kinabalu, attended by some leading opposition politicians. I also witnessed a BN component party in action at the seminar, boldly withdrawing from the ruling coalition in support of Anwar’s move.
The atmosphere was extremely charged, with abundant boisterous exhortations for a new dawn in Malay politics.
However, in the evening, it became clear that this supposed change of loyalty of many BN deputies did not materialize. A gloomy mood descended on the gradually less crowded event.
Malaysians would have to settle for more of the same political setup, with a long-standing, albeit bruised, government sitting in the face of expanded but frustrated opposition.
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ALMOST, BUT NOT VERY THERE
Unfortunately, this and many other equally elusive and quixotic quests for “almost, but not quite” have punctuated Anwar’s long political career.
Anwar had been Mahathir Mohamad’s protégé during the latter’s first term as Prime Minister of Malaysia. Anwar was even promoted to deputy prime minister on a fast track to take over as prime minister.
But that did not happen, as the relationship between the two soured with Mahathir increasingly alarmed by Anwar’s overwhelming ambition.
The stormy relationship between the two men dates back to the 1990s when Mahathir Mohamad (right) fired Anwar Ibrahim as his deputy, and he was jailed on sodomy charges. (Photo: AFP / Mohd Rasfan)
When allegations of wrongdoing surfaced against Anwar in September 1998, he was unceremoniously fired from the cabinet and expelled from the party. He was later jailed on charges of corruption and sodomy.
After the verdict was overturned in 2004 and Anwar was released before the end of his nine-year sentence, he went on to push the opposition coalition to consecutively deny the BN the much-vaunted two-thirds parliamentary majority in the 2008 general election. and 2013, but still failed to get a majority to become Prime Minister.
As he was jailed again in 2015 on another charge of sodomy, he was unable to lead the opposition in the 2018 general election.
He made up for his absence by reconciling with his former political rival Mahathir, who by then had also fallen out with BN and led the rebuilt opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH).
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After PH surprisingly defeated BN in the 2018 elections and formed the government, Anwar was pardoned. He quickly won a parliamentary seat in a by-election, positioning himself once again to succeed Mahathir, the then Malaysian prime minister for the second time.
At least that was Anwar’s understanding, citing a pre-election agreement between the PH parties to that effect.
THE LAST INTERRUPTION IN 2020
In hindsight, Mahathir had no intention of passing the baton for the position of prime minister to Anwar. He often avoided the subject when questioned in public or offered late deadlines.
When Mahathir’s hand was forced at the end of February, they both saw their political fortunes overturn in a matter of days.
A series of movements by Azmin Ali and Muhyiddin Yassin, respectively deputies from the Anwar and Mahathir parties, provoked the change of political allegiance of several deputies of the PH.
Malaysia’s Minister of International Trade and Industry Azmin Ali reacts during a press conference in Putrajaya, Malaysia, on March 11, 2020. (File Photo: REUTERS / Lim Huey Teng)
After a week fraught with suspicion, Muhyiddin was sworn in as Prime Minister.
After being relegated to the opposition again, Mahathir did not relent in his dislike for Anwar. He initially criticized Anwar more vehemently than Muhyiddin, whom he felt had betrayed him.
Even when Mahathir tried in vain to present parliamentary motions of no confidence against Muhyiddin, Mahathir did not seem interested in Muhyiddin being replaced by Anwar.
Mahathir had put forward Shafie Apdal, the former prime minister of Sabah, as a possible candidate for the opposition prime minister in an attempt to marginalize Anwar.
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A BOMB
At the end of last month, Anwar dropped another political bombshell just days before Sabah’s state elections, in which his PKR party joined Shafie and re-announced its alleged support of more deputies and command of the parliamentary majority.
By now, the popular expectation that Anwar will realize his “takeover” claim has largely dissipated. But that did not deter Anwar, who went ahead with his majority bid, betting largely on growing discord between Muhyiddin’s Bersatu party and the UMNO, the main component of the ruling coalition.
Yet even at this juncture, where Anwar and Mahathir’s political aspirations to overthrow the Muhyiddin government found common ground, Mahathir continued to refuse to support Anwar.
Instead, he appeared to have backed Tengku Razaleigh, a UMNO veteran and even former rival, to take over as Prime Minister.
Malaysian politician Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah speaks to members of the media after a meeting at the United Malaysia National Organization (UMNO) headquarters in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 26, 2020. REUTERS / Lim Huey Teng
NEVER GIVE UP
Anwar has amply demonstrated his political tenacity over the years, going from one failure, albeit almost within earshot of eventual success, to one with renewed vitality.
He also exhibited other leadership traits, which should be viewed positively in a healthy modern democracy.
On the one hand, Anwar practices an inclusive politics. His PH coalition, for example, consists of his own Malaysian-based but multiracial PKR, the China-based but equally multiracial DAP, and also the moderately religious Amanah party, which spun off from the avowedly Islamist PAS party.
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Even PAS, during its previously more moderate phase, was a component party of PH’s predecessor coalition.
Anwar recognizes the primacy of the Malays in Malaysian politics, but is open to working towards a more needs-based model of socio-economic distribution that would usher in greater community harmony.
Anwar has also adopted a progressive streak during his long years in politics. For example, the background to his momentous clash with Mahathir was the 1998 Asian financial crisis, in which the Malaysian economy went into a tailspin.
Anwar, who then chaired the development committee of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was inclined to accept the IMF loan package, which would have required drastic structural reforms with deep budget cuts and strict measures against corruption and corruption. cronyism. all in an effort to make Malaysia’s economy more market-friendly.
Malaysian politician Anwar Ibrahim arrives for a meeting in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, on February 29, 2020. (File Photo: REUTERS / Lim Huey Teng)
Mahathir thought otherwise, rejecting the IMF package but prioritizing corporate bailouts and currency controls.
ONE MAN FOR ALL VOTERS
If Anwar is ever to assume the leadership role, he cannot count on his opposition credentials, but he must show that he is someone who can represent all voters.
This will not be easy. These are not normal times in Malaysia. The country is sharply divided between a conservative, racially and religiously centered majority on the one hand, and a more liberal and progressive minority on the other.
Conservatives, widely represented in the current ruling coalition, view Anwar’s inclusive and progressive character as an affront to his monolithic political outlook for the country, and are reluctant to support him.
Liberals, who attest to a more open and tolerant society, shudder at Anwar’s staunchly religious past. So your support for him, while considerable, is reluctant and even hinges on his inability to find an equally charismatic leader for his progressive cause.
Conservatives and liberals alike worry that it may hug their respective side for short-term political expediency, only to expel them when the dust has settled.
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Anwar can win both sides. He is a charismatic national icon. I attended his talk in February just days before the Sheraton move, which catapulted Muhyiddin to power.
As on the numerous previous occasions when I was able to hear him in person, Anwar is indeed a persuasive, even fascinating speaker, capable of articulating his progressive ideas and quoting profusely from leading liberal thinkers of our time.
I couldn’t help but comment to my friend who was next to me that with such progressive ideals, Anwar would make an excellent prime minister.
My friend replied:
This is a liberal audience. Of course I would say such liberal things. Have you heard him speak to a conservative audience?
Indeed, Anwar would have to perform an intricate balancing act as he once again treads the fine line to a highly coveted prime ministerial post.
Oh Ei Sun is a Senior Research Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
