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KUALA LUMPUR – Having set all-time highs in daily coronavirus cases for two days in a row this week, whispers of an impending lockdown in Malaysia, similar to that implemented for three months earlier this year, have increased.
However, public health experts, economists and leading politicians do not believe that a repeat of the lockdown, which has devastated the local economy, is a good solution to the current wave of infections.
Instead, experts say more specific motion control is the way to go.
On Tuesday (October 6), Malaysia recorded 691 new infections and four deaths, including a one-year-old girl in Sabah. The figure was a jump from 432 cases on Monday, which at the time was an all-time high.
Most of the country’s recent new cases were related to a prison in Kedah and Sabah, which held state elections late last month. The two states accounted for 616 of the 691 cases reported Tuesday.
Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin predicted on Tuesday that the number of positive cases will continue to rise in the coming days, but said the government is not considering a Movement Control Order (MCO) due to the livelihoods of 15 million Malaysians in the workforce.
Tan Sri Muhyiddin has repeatedly said that the Malaysian economy bled more than RM2 billion (S $ 653 million) a day during the lockdown period and also warned that the banking and financial system was on the verge of collapse before the bills were lifted. restrictions in June.
Bank Islam chief economist Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told The Straits Times: “I think we have learned that the first round of MCO had a devastating impact on the economy.
“I think we now have more clarity compared to the first round of MCO, when everything was unprecedented in many ways. In that sense, if the government decides to become more strict with regard to human mobility, it will be very focused and localized. ”
Unemployment in Malaysia soared from 3.3 percent before the pandemic to 5.3 percent in May, at the height of the shutdown. The number of unemployed went from just over 500,000 people to 826,000 in the span of three months.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) also fell 17.1 percent during the second quarter of the year.
Muhyiddin announced a series of measures to bring relief to Malaysians during the shutdown. The key measure was a six-month credit moratorium that ended in September. The administration has resisted calls for a general extension of the moratorium, instead allowing banks to offer specific extensions to those who are unemployed or struggling with their finances.
Public health experts also advocate a specific approach without a total lockdown.
“A full-fledged MCO for the entire country may not necessarily slow the spread of new cases, as cases are, for the moment, concentrated in Kedah (Tembok group) and Sabah,” said Malaya University epidemiologist Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud to The Straits Times. .
“Due to the high economic cost of MCO 2.0, I assume that the government will do its best not to apply a full MCO and will turn to TEMCO (Directed Motion Control) when necessary. This is likely to continue as long as the community transmits it. it can be mitigated with aggressive contact tracing and isolation or quarantine, “said Professor Awang.
However, he cautioned that the window of opportunity to contain the spread is small and rapidly closing.
“We have to stop the spread of the infection outside the prison walls in Kedah, so a full effort in contact tracing between prison staff and their contacts is necessary,” he said, noting that the next few weeks are crucial for the country in the face of the new wave.
The head of the Malaysian Public Health Physicians Association, Dr. Zainal Ariffin Omar, said: “Although the cases are high, these involve prison and illegal immigrants. This should not be of concern.”
He noted that the high number of cases in Sabah can be addressed through active detection and contact tracing, which helped authorities contain a large group in Kedah before the pandemic.
Dr. Zainal also said the government should stop blaming the public for the recent increase.
“Cut down on the rhetoric, don’t blame the people and stop sweeping under the rug,” he said, urging the government to admit the poor management of Sabah’s state elections and the uproar it caused.
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