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PETALING JAYA: Even before the first ballot has been cast in the Sabah elections scheduled for September 26, political experts are already hard at work.
The campaign will be closely monitored and the result will be analyzed over and over again.
The interest is more than superficial. Many are convinced that the result in Sabah will serve as a reference for a bigger battle to come: the 15th general election.
The belief is that the side that wins in Sabah will likely have the upper hand when the country returns to the polls.
Some have even said that whether Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin calls for snap elections will depend on how well Perikatan Nasional (PN) and his allies do in Sabah polls.
But for some analysts who have been aware of the country’s political pulse, this is mere conjecture.
They note that the situation in Sabah and the problems in question are quite different from those in the rest of the country.
A total of 447 candidates from a wide range of parties compete for the 73 seats at stake.
Despite the seemingly mixed pool of hopefuls, the battle is largely between two sides.
The first is the incumbent coalition led by Parti Warisan Sabah, collectively known as Warisan Plus. On his side are parties such as the DAP and PKR, as well as various groups based in Sabah.
Hoping to evict them is Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, a flexible alliance comprising PN, Barisan Nasional and Parti Bersatu Sabah.
In the eyes of the independent political analyst, Dr. Jeniri Amir, it doesn’t matter which side wins the award.
“It will not determine the outcome of the next general election,” he told the Sun yesterday.
“The complexity of so many candidates and parties already sets Sabah apart from the rest of the country.”
“Sabah also faces different problems compared to the peninsula. We cannot have a general generalization, ”added Jeniri.
He noted that for the people of Sabaha, stability and development are important issues.
Illegal immigrants, a declining economy, mega-projects such as the multi-billion dollar ecological development of Ringgit Tanjung Aru, comfortable housing and clean water are of great importance to the people of Sabaha.
However, he was quick to add that under the current circumstances, the PN-led alliance has an advantage.
“Warisan has had a mediocre 26 months in power. It did not provide job opportunities. The general feeling is to look for new leaders ”.
Jeniri also does not believe that Muhyiddin will call snap elections anytime soon, even if PN wins in Sabah.
“I think you have already set yourself when to call elections. Their ratings have improved based on their handling of the Covid pandemic, ”he said.
Sharing the same opinion is analyst Jamari Mohtar, director of media and communications for the independent think tank Emir Research.
He said that Sabah is different from many states on the peninsula and that what happens in Sabah cannot be easily reproduced elsewhere.
On the other hand, he believes that with the substantial number of seats they hold at the federal level, the Sabahans can still be the kingmaker in Putrajaya if there is a narrow margin between the contending sides in the 15th general election.
Jamari also dismissed the idea that Muhyiddin would call early elections if Warisan Plus loses.
“He is more concerned with the best way to manage the Covid problem and the economy now.”
“An early election at this point is a waste of money and a public health risk,” he added.
Read this story in our iPaper: Different ball game
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