As Sabah heads to the polls on September 26, what is at stake for the main political blocs?

KUALA LUMPUR: The Sabah state election has been shaping up to be a wrestling match for all, with multi-corner contests in each of Borneo’s 73 state seats.

The president of the Electoral Commission (EC), Abdul Ghani Salleh, announced that a total of 447 candidates from 16 parties, including 56 independents, are running for this election, and the vote will take place next Saturday (September 26).

Certain districts have stood out as hot seats, either because of the disputed names or, in the case of Bengkoka and Inanam, because of the number of candidates who came forward. The first has 11 while the second has 10.

Political developments at the federal level, beginning with the February “Sheraton Movement”, the fall of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government and the installation of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government led by the Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) Muhyiddin Yassin , have also spread to Sabah and led to the September elections.

After the total acquittal of the former Minister of State, Musa Aman, and the discharge of 46 criminal charges related to corruption and money laundering, he announced on July 29 that he had a simple majority to form a new multi-party government for the state. and that he would seek an audience with Sabah. the head of state Juhar Mahiruddin.

However, the governor of Sabah agreed to dissolve the Sabah state assembly after the incumbent Chief Minister, Shafie Apdal, met with him on the morning of July 30, anticipating the attempted takeover of Musa and thus preparing the scenario for this September 26.

The Sabah political scene has always been a crowded affair. For this state election, there are three political forces to consider, including the current Warisan + alliance, the state opposition Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) alliance comprised of PN, Barisan Nasional (BN) and other state parties, as well as the indigenous Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS).

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FEDERAL INCUMBENTS, STATE OPPOSITION

Political parties that were on opposing sides two years ago are now together within a Venn diagram of coalitions, with PN, BN and Muafakat Nasional (MN) working to win these state elections.

These include Bersatu, the United Malaysia National Organization (UMNO), the Malaysian China Association (MCA), the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), as well as former and current BN partners such as Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR).

This opposition alliance, which holds power at the federal level, does not exactly go to the polls at a disadvantage.

Political analyst and senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs Oh Ei Sun noted that as federal incumbents, the GRS alliance can channel a great deal of resources into the fight.

“UMNO still has a great level of support (in Sabah),” he said. The party, which previously led Malaysia’s federal government, had a 30-year history of presence in Sabah.

Nonetheless, the federal coalition is plagued with some downsides, including infighting that has made headlines even before the nomination.

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“There seems to be a lot of infighting between UMNO and Bersatu, PBS and other parts of Kadazan, that’s the main drawback,” noted Dr. Oh.

As it stood, Sabah Bersatu and BN were supposed to make a joint announcement to present their candidates on September 10, but this event was abandoned.

Instead, Sabah BN submitted its list of candidates that same day. He left out the chief architect of the polls, Mr. Musa, and appointed another former Sabah chief minister and former federal minister, Salleh Said Keruak, as one of the candidates.

Both Bersatu and BN leaders have also openly discussed the choice of the chief minister candidate.

Likewise, two local parties of the PN alliance, STAR and PBS, are in disagreement, facing each other on six seats.

STAR leader and federal deputy minister Jeffrey Kitingan had previously announced that they would withdraw from the PN if they were not given 15 seats to compete. He later backed out after being given eight seats to compete, while PBS took the rest.

However, it has emerged that several independent candidates competing for the seats where PBS is also located are endorsed by or aligned with STAR, as reported by MalayMail on September 13.

INCUMBING ADVANTAGE FOR WARISAN +

Under the name Warisan +, this bloc comprises the state-centered Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) led by Mr. Shafie in a partnership with the United Progressive Kinabalu Organization (UPKO) and the national parties PH Democratic Action Party ( DAP), Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah).

There have also been infighting, although not as obvious as Bersatu-BN, manifested in the form of seat allocations between Warisan and PKR, which is led by Anwar Ibrahim.

In his candidate announcement on September 10, Shafie announced that his allies DAP and Amanah would contest the Warisan ship logo, while UPKO and PKR would use their respective party logos.

“I think for the governing (state) coalition, the main advantage is that they are the incumbents, and Shafie is a charismatic figure,” said Dr. Oh.

He added that there was resentment on the part of the Sabahan population towards “political frogs”, state assemblymen who had partied and who were seen as the main cause of the fall of the Warisan + government.

“During the last two years of the Warisan government, it would appear that there is at least less corruption in the government,” he added.

However, in addition to the infighting, Dr. Oh added that Mr. Shafie had also been painted by BN as the one who opened Sabah to illegal immigrants, conveniently forgetting the fact that it was the old ruling coalition that has been instrumental. to initiate the entry of foreigners to the state.

“This has taken its toll on Warisan in the KDM seats,” he added, referring to the voter-dominated seats of the descendants of Kadazan, Dusun and Murut.

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ALLIANCE PARTI CINTA SABAH

Led by former federal foreign minister Anifah Aman, PCS has emerged as a “third force” in state politics, running one candidate for each of the 73 states..

Political science professor Mohammed Raheezal Shah Abdul Karim explained that there were only a number of well-known state politicians fighting under the PCS, such as Mr. Ansari Abdullah, who previously led PKR in Sabah.

“Apart from them, most of the Sabahans are not very well known. They may be well-known figures within their own districts or communities, but I can only speculate, ”said Universiti Teknologi Mara Sabah professor.

Aside from Warisan, other Sabah-based parties are dominated by certain ethnic groups, Mohammed Raheezal said. As such, Anifah is trying to project its party as more balanced or plural in terms of ethnic composition, he added.

“Also, unlike other Sabah-based parties, including Warisan, which only compete in selective electoral districts, Anifah is trying to send out a bold statement by running candidates in all seats,” he explained.

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Essentially, PCS, along with other fringe parties in the fray, hoped to emulate the same achievement as Dr. Jeffrey’s STAR in the last election, Mohammed Raheezal said.

“In 2018, STAR contested 18 seats and managed to secure two due to divided votes. After 2018, this has given other smaller parties the motivation that the days of single-party or single-coalition dominance are over, ”he told CNA.

“Looking at STAR, it gives them new hope that it might be possible to win a seat or two, even if it’s just by a majority vote, and be the kingmaker,” he said.

WINS, BUT DON’T WIN “TOO BIG”

In both GRS and Warisan +, Dr. Oh noted that each side had partners who expected the leading party not to win too comfortably.

“There are many infighting on both sides of the political divide, in Sabah and at the national level. On the GRS side, it seems that UMNO and Bersatu are fighting to win supremacy and the prime minister, and that is happening in Sabah, ”he explained.

Mr. Muhyiddin, Dr. Oh explained, would like to see both Bersatu and UMNO win, but not “too big” for the latter, as this would further embolden UMNO and overshadow Bersatu.

“A big UMNO victory would accelerate UMNO’s demand for a general election as soon as possible,” he noted.

On the other hand, there was a passive, but powerful conflict between Mr. Shafie and Mr. Anwar, as initially, PKR intended to run in some of the seats that Warisan is also looking at.

“Anwar would also like to see Shafie win, but not too big of a margin either. A victory for Shafie would potentially propel him into running for the post of prime minister, a position Anwar has coveted for so many years, ”said Dr. Oh.