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KUALA LUMPUR: It has been four months since I first highlighted the underrated success of Malaysia’s COVID-19 response.
During that time, which includes the end of the first motion control order (MCO), only 25 deaths and around 3,300 infections were recorded.
The number of infections rose to 9,354 on September 1, with fewer than 20 new daily cases in the past two weeks and just three deaths since late July.
Simply put, Malaysia has quietly continued its cunning management. Very few observers have given it due recognition.
A key aspect of Malaysia’s continued success has been its cautious and evidence-based approach to easing restrictions, supported by advice from domestic and foreign experts.
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He has listened to the World Health Organization (WHO) and increased the sophistication of his public health interventions, as he watches the resurgence of infections in countries determined to restore normality to pre-COVID.
Businesses and schools reopened under strict operating procedures that require temperature controls, social distancing, provision of disinfectants, and check-in.
Testing has been expanded and tracking applications unified. Masks became mandatory in closed public spaces.
Text alerts and law enforcement activities have continued to reinforce the need for vigilance.
It also benefits from decades of experience responding to unexpected virus outbreaks and managing endemic diseases like dengue, for which surveillance by governments and citizens is a feature of everyday life.
Shoppers wearing masks walk in front of a shopping mall in Kuala Lumpur on May 28, 2020 (Photo: AFP / Mohd Rasfan)
Malaysia’s recent decision to extend its Recovery MCO (RMCO) until the end of 2020 is the latest example of its pragmatic approach. The government won’t rush to reopen as long as new groups continue to be unearthed and a small minority of residents flaunt the rules.
He highlighted the WHO’s expectations of a protracted pandemic and the risk of outbreaks of “super-spreaders” by taking a safety-first approach.
The announcement has been met with little fuss among Malaysians, greeted by medical experts and economists divided over the economic fallout.
As an economist, I have serious concerns with the popular health versus economic characterization of responses to the pandemic and have previously argued that complementarity is a better goal.
Economists who advocate a full reopening not only fatally minimize the economic consequences of a health catastrophe and ignore human behavior, but also ignore the statistics showing the economic recovery in Malaysia.
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THE MALAYSIA ECONOMY IS RECOVERING RAPIDLY
Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 17.1% in the second quarter of 2020, its worst quarterly performance since the Asian financial crisis. It provides a terrifying but fully expected headline, given that about 55 percent of the economy crashed during April and only gradually reopened thereafter.
But the monthly figures are cause for optimism: April (-28.6%), May (-19.5%) and June (-3.2%) roughly follow Malaysia’s progressive lifting of various OLS measures; with two thirds of June under the RMCO agreements.
Surprisingly, Malaysia’s industrial production index for June was down just 0.4 percent year-on-year despite strict operating procedures, labor shortages in growing sectors (such as medical supplies), and the falling world economy. free.
Trade also had its worst quarterly decline (15.1%) since the global financial crisis, but the rebound in June and July was strong. Exports increased 5.3% year-on-year, while imports fell 7.2%.
The Petronas Twin Towers are displayed amid skyscrapers in Kuala Lumpur. (File photo: AFP)
Delayed trade from previous months may explain some of the recent momentum, but Malaysia’s growing trade surplus is indicative of its resilience vis-à-vis its trading partners.
The labor market is also showing signs of recovery after unemployment rose nearly 2 percent to 5.3 percent in May.
It is too early to declare the peak for May, despite unemployment falling to 4.9 percent in June along with slight improvements in the participation rate and overall employment levels.
Early results under RMCO’s “new normal” look promising and do not immediately support calls for a further reopening. After all, if the economy can operate near normal today, why risk further relaxation?
However, the counterargument that low infection numbers completely eliminate the need for restrictions and that the economy would fare even better without the security device remains popular.
THE COUNTERFACTUAL CATASTROPHIC
A greater appreciation of the interrelationships between health and the economy can inform this debate.
Malaysia’s 17.1% overall GDP loss was roughly the same as Italy’s (-17.3%). Italy suffered a devastating outbreak earlier, recording 34,800 more deaths than Malaysia during that three-month period.
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It may seem crude to put a value on lives lost, but policymakers do so when considering road safety, social impact assessments, and insurance appraisals. There is no Malaysian or International Standard Value of a Statistical Life (VSL), and those used in developed countries range from US $ 2 million to US $ 10 million.
Using a VSL of US $ 5 million as an illustration, 34,800 deaths equate to more than US $ 174 billion, or nearly double Malaysia’s first quarter GDP. The hypothetical benefit of lives saved (200% of GDP) dwarfs the 17.1% lost.
Government policies must keep citizens vigilant in what may prove to be a long battle against COVID-19. Examples around the world suggest that Malaysia’s safe approach to withholding the RMCO is prudent.
The resurgence of emerging infections in Europe exemplifies concerns with lockdown fatigue and the dangers of unqualified tourism.
The Australian experience highlights how quickly the virus can spread in a community that has not fully embraced “new normal” behaviors.
Vietnam demonstrates the dangers of enthusiastically promoting domestic tourism.
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AirAsia passengers walk to the check-in counter at Kuala Lumpur International Airport 2 in Sepang, Malaysia, on April 29, 2020 (Photo: AFP / Mohd Rasfan)
It is in this context that the RMCO arguably serves its greatest purpose: to provide an ever-present reminder that behaviors, such as social distancing, personal hygiene, wearing masks, limiting and recording movements, and transfer of online activities must remain.
It imposes penalties on those who do not comply, including companies that might otherwise revert to risky practices to save costs and increase turnover.
It limits international travel to essential and safer activities and allows foreign nationals to stay (and in some cases re-enter) and contribute to Malaysia’s recovery.
The Malaysian government takes its public health responsibilities seriously. “The government will continue to strive to curb the spread of the pandemic and urge people to embrace the new normal, including adherence to standard operating procedures (SOPs) stipulated in their daily lives,” Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said earlier in June. August.
ARRANGEMENTS CAN BE TUNED
This is not an argument that RMCO’s setup has been refined and should remain indefinitely, although confidence would benefit from clearer guidance on what measures should remain for the foreseeable future.
An important feature of Malaysia’s reopening has been its deliberative dynamism; carefully adjusted as circumstances change and after standard operating procedures have been developed.
Activities such as live entertainment, clubs and crowds at sporting events remain banned, while partial reopens have been achieved abroad under strict regulations.
These are arguably less risky than unrestricted interstate travel, which has played a prominent role in overcast events both in Malaysia and globally.
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Even then, interstate travel with a single destination for essential reasons can be managed with low risk.
Measures that prioritize security (quarantine and testing), duration (long-term purposes), and criticality (work / medical / family) rather than travel bans based on specific borders can help to open the travel envelope carefully. .
Looking ahead, critics have rightly asked whether support will be extended alongside the RMCO, particularly for sectors that remain closed or face bleak prospects as long as the pandemic persists.
As the RMCO provides the legal foundations that support the health response, the stimulus measures and the next budget prop up the economy.
A couple wearing protective masks talk to each other at the Kuala Lumpur Tower, amid the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia on July 2, 2020 (Photo: Reuters / Lim Huey Teng).
Without detailed information on the implementation of stimulus measures, it is difficult to determine how much of the June / July recovery depended on government support.
As Malaysians celebrate “Rumah Merdeka,” the pandemic-friendly version of Independence Day, their collective sacrifices and achievements to date deserve a quiet celebration and further recognition.
But as humble and resilient people and their underrated political and bureaucratic leadership acknowledge, the battle is far from won.
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Stewart Nixon is a Research Fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University and a Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Malaya.
