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COMMENTARY Pakatan Harapan will win big, perhaps beyond a two-thirds majority in the next General Election if he steps back now, puts himself back together, gathers all his forces and reorganizes.
After all, polls already show that people’s support for Harapan is still at its highest and is the preferred coalition to be the government.
Forget about forming a federal government for now. Think big, think long term. Even if Tun Mahathir’s motion of confidence in Parliament succeeds, it would remain a fragile and weak government, living in constant fear, you never know when another unscrupulous frog would sell its soul.
Harapan could better serve our country by being an offensive opposition than, without a comfortable majority, being a defensive government.
Harapan has already taken advantage of the three most important political inflows which, next time, will provide them with a more secure and stable government with GE15.
First, Harapan now already has a collection of leaders who have learned the trade and acquired the experience, knowledge, and insight to lead a federal government.
Getting the governing government to check and balance is paramount to the functioning of any democracy. Then any deviation from so-called “back door” ministers of good governance and good judgment will quickly become apparent to them.
Secondly, members of the Harapan coalition may be united by ethnicity, but by convictions, principles and political principles, they are so incompatible with each other that their ambiguity is very strong.
You can already see them fighting and voraciously fighting for lucrative positions of power from JKKKs, councils to GLC and even having to create special envoy positions with ministerial ranks.
Third, very soon, Bersatu, Umno and PAS will begin to fight each other for the same voter base that has been charging and convicting itself for decades.
No one can bluff and always escape. Not this time. This internal fight effect will only reduce PN. Umno will be uprooted, PAS will be decimated and Bersatu will evaporate.
This will force them to reinvent themselves and, hopefully, they will later serve as an alternative coalition again.
Perikatan Nasional (PN) has already started to supply a generous supply of shells, some as comical as “Doraemon”, “air suam”, weight in kilometers “, 500 countries and Tik Tok.
The lack of revival of the economy, the looting of national resources, high unemployment and the effects of abuses of power and misappropriations will soon begin to work.
The BN government under Najib had already emptied our coffers. PN will now have to scrape the bottom hole. Old habits take time to die.
With Umno back in power and kleptocrats heading ministries and GLCs, it’s only a matter of time before reports of misappropriations proliferate.
The snowball has started with the case of RM30 million in the Ministry of Health. God only knows how many more colonies under the table have already taken their momentum. The RM35 food basket for RM100 is another fiasco.
Long before this parliament “dies sinusoidally”, PH will already have multiple warehouses full of exposures to uproot the PN forever.
Without parliamentary scrutiny, no one will know how the RM250 Billion Covid-19 stimulus package was actually spent and how much, if any, it dissipated. It is a time bomb waiting to explode. With the economy at large, our masses can be very unforgiving.
The political divide between PH and PN is divided almost equally. Therefore, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin must buy as many unscrupulous zero integrity frogs as he can to strengthen his position and that of the PN. Still, the government will remain very fragile, weak, and vulnerable.
Those who follow my Facebook and my conversations during the GE13 campaign period, GE14, will remember that I had prophesied, that even if the PH comes to power, it might not last more than 3 years.
The reason I gave is repeated below. But he kept defending that the PH does it. It is a process that must pass before politics in Malaysia finally matures.
First, PH leaders would have no experience in the federal government. Two, they will take time to dismantle deeply rooted corrupt systems in place. Three, some members of the coalition will be new, so they must learn to work as a team. Four, they would require giant efforts to take off BN’s civil service. Five, quickly initiate meaningful reforms on the basis of which they would come to power.
I drew this parallel from the history of India in the 70’s. I was with Delhi University and somewhat involved with the student union. It was the moment when the Indira Gandhi Congress lost power for the first time since independence. People were restless, in oblivion, asking what would happen to the country. No one can lead the country except Congress, people calculate.
The courts found Indira Gandhi guilty of electoral malpractice and corruption when she was challenged by her Rae Barely seat. He quickly imposed the government by emergency and imprisoned all the main opposition leaders.
The country protested. Mounting that public anger, two years later, Morarji Desai, a former congressional leader, led a new coalition called the Janata Party (which would later become BJP) to take power and became prime minister. It lasted only 28 months.
My prophecy was fulfilled. GE14 went exactly as planned. The situation when PH took power was almost the same. People never knew the government without BN. I relived that part of Indian history, the same circumstances. It was repeated here. The resemblance was surprising.
The Janata Party (JP) brought down the government of Congress that had governed since independence. PH also brought down BN, which ruled since independence. JP was a multi-front coalition, two of which was a separatist party from the mother party, Congress.
PH was also a coalition that included two separatist parties from its parent party, BN. JP quickly sought reforms and an anti-corruption agenda. PH too.
JP remained weak due to continuous internal struggles and ideological differences, PH too. The Janata Party fell in 28 months, the PH lost power in 22 months. But what happens next is the point I’m trying to make with this piece.
When it came back together later, the Janata Party (later BJP) from their short spell government experience had become much smarter and wiser. From then on, there was no going back.
Two major coalitions were formed and subsequent national general elections were held between them. Powers rotated between them and both contributed immensely to the development of India, making today the rising economic giant on the world stage.
Hopefully, PH leaders have also learned their lesson and become calmer, smarter, wiser, and less hungry for the jobs.
Fortunately, by the time PH returns to power again, perhaps GE15, they will appreciate real talents more than just rewarding party supporters for positions and power. Then the PH will rule well for a long time, letting the PN components take care of their karma.
Thieves, religious fanatics, and kleptocrats would be swept up in the annals of history.
Hopefully, each citizen would be treated equally and the factors of race and religion would be buried forever. This time, the separation of powers must work.
SARAJUN HODA is a social activist with Aliran and former Vice President of Bersih 2.0.
The views expressed here are those of the author / contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.
