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A sigh of relief ran through Europe when it became clear that Joe Biden would replace Donald Trump in the White House. New leadership in the US would mean that after four years of disruption of the transatlantic relationship, an era of constructive cooperation on bilateral and global affairs is approaching.
But in recent weeks, that earlier sense of relief had given way to nervousness as the American political scene sank to new depths of dysfunction.
America’s democratic institutions have withstood attacks the likes of which have never been seen since the Civil War. The sacking of the US Capitol on January 6, broadcast live to a stunned world, will not be soon forgotten.
The hatred and disdain for democracy exhibited by the insurgents will not disappear with the departure of Trump. Millions of Trump supporters across the country will hold the false belief that the election was stolen.
Trump has left American society deeply wounded and Europe with a constant sense of nervousness and concern for the future of his former ally.
Much has changed since early December, when the European Commission published a document outlining its vision for renewed cooperation between the European Union and the United States.
“With a change of administration in the US, a more assertive Europe and the need to design a post-crown world”, EU leaders saw a “once in a generation opportunity to design a new transatlantic agenda for cooperation global”.
Hopes were high. Biden and his impressive team of advisers have made it clear that they will reach out to friends and allies to address pressing global challenges such as climate change, threats to public health and the rise of China.
But while European governments and institutions will remain ready to respond to America’s call, they should not assume that navigation is smooth. The winds have changed.
A survey of 11 EU member states commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) shows that European attitudes towards the United States have changed substantially during the Trump era.
The majority of respondents in EU member states believe that the US political system is broken, that Europe cannot rely on the US for its defense, that China will be more powerful than the US within. decade and that Europe should not take sides in a conflict between the two.
Across all countries surveyed, 51% do not believe the US can overcome its internal divisions and invest to address key global issues that concern the future of Europe. Although, of course, there are differences between countries, they are small.
Even in the UK, with its “special relationship” with the United States, 81% of those surveyed believe that the American political system is completely or somewhat broken. Only in Hungary and Poland do the majority believe otherwise.
Furthermore, while other polls show that attitudes towards China have hardened across Europe, 60% of Europeans would prefer the EU to stay out of the Sino-US rivalry.
Only 22% of those surveyed in the ECFR survey think Europe should back the United States, while 6% think it should side with China. Attitudes toward the US are much more reserved than in the past, and confidence in Europe’s ability to shape its own future has increased (whether that perspective reflects reality is another matter).
This clear shift in European attitudes could not come at a worse time. In a world of changing power relations, cooperation between the United States and the EU is urgently needed.
European nervousness
There is no way for either party to prevail in the face of global challenges by acting on its own. The transatlantic link is the foundation on which the broader global cooperative networks must rest.
But the nervousness of Europeans after recent events in the United States cannot simply go away. It will remain, which implies at least some impact on diplomacy and policy-making.
The immediate risk is that US political turmoil will reinforce those who are already calling for Europe to make its own way, build new barriers, or withdraw from the world.
If Europe’s traditional and natural ally is no longer trustworthy, what other option is there? That is the question that now hangs over European policy and strategy debates.
Biden, of course, will be greeted with almost universal glee in most of Europe. But it will take much longer to resolve the question of whether Trump was a historical aberration or a harbinger of things to come.
As such, the shift in European public opinion will pose an ongoing challenge to American and European leaders alike.
The Biden administration must do everything possible to restore trust in American society and policymaking; and European leaders must convince a skeptical national audience that they must support measures to restore transatlantic ties.
The ECFR survey suggests that European leaders have a lot of work ahead of them. But failure is not an option. With new leadership in Washington, DC, now is the time to ensure that the nightmare of the past four years is never repeated.
Carl Bildt is a former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden. © Project Syndicate 2021.
The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
