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As the Prime Minister wrote, although there would be inaccuracies in the statistics, quarantine decisions are made according to two different criteria.
“As soon as the Government, experts and the Association of Municipalities of Lithuania began to argue that the accelerated situation in some municipalities could be assessed by lower quarantine restrictions applied locally, records were added with red exclamations that there are not so many active cases of COVID in one municipality or another.
Therefore, decisions will be made based on erroneous statistics, because, for example, the mother-in-law of the deputy director of the municipal administration is still included, although at work she works for entrepreneurs who return in support for tests, since this is’ marketing indirect’).
Since Statistics Lithuania acquired the right to receive all the data necessary to publish the full COVID19 statistics, for more than a month each report has been accompanied by red alerts that the data is currently being processed and will be updated in the near future.
This happened today, when tens of thousands of people suddenly recovered “miraculously”, as statisticians simply entered a statistical estimate of how many cases can actually be considered reasonably relevant, even if human recovery is not correctly recorded. It’s not as accurate a figure as it would be if all healing cases were recorded correctly, but it’s definitely closer to the truth than the whole mountain that has been creeping up on since last fall.
Someone saw some kind of ambition in him and even linked this, albeit large, but still incorrect data, to the quarantine decisions. I just want to emphasize this once again: quarantine decisions (and consequently the coloring of a country or parts of a country with a specific color) are influenced by only two parameters that have nothing to do with the issue at hand:
– Number of NEW boxes 100 t. population; Y
– Percentage of positive responses to the tests carried out.
Today, under both parameters, we are in the middle of the red scenario (C), although we were only at the beginning ten days ago. I hope that the easing of the restrictions will do its part (and it will if both customers and service providers and vendors follow a voice of security and common sense, because we do not protect the authorities with all the instructions there, but we we protect ourselves and our loved ones) and they continue to move in the same direction, in the downward direction of the proportion of new cases and positive tests.
Well, I thank the statisticians for their work in combining the tangled data threads, ”wrote the Prime Minister.
As soon as the Government, experts and the Association of Municipalities of Lithuania began to argue that in some municipalities …
Posted by Ingrida Šimonytė in 2021 Thursday February 11
The number of patients decreased 6 times
The news portal tv3.lt recalls that when the Department of Statistics opened more COVID-19 data this Thursday, it was clear that the statistical number (last 28 days) of patients is 6 times less than the previously announced one. As a result, Minister Arūnas Dulkys also points the finger at the work of the responsible institutions.
After reviewing the statistics, it became clear that currently the statistical number of sick people in Lithuania reaches almost 12 thousand, when there are 62 thousand of those people. 586 people.
According to the Lithuanian Statistics Department (LSD), a declared patient is a person for whom a case of disease has been confirmed, but the disease card has not yet been closed, the end of the disease has not been confirmed by a doctor . A statistical patient is a person for whom disease has been confirmed in the last 28 days.
Why is there such a difference? As Jonas Bačelis, an analyst at LSD Data, explained, it all depends on when the reported cases and the sick are statistically compared.
“It just came to our attention then. At some point earlier in the year, maybe he was twice as small. I don’t even know what that relationship says. It’s smaller, maybe it’s natural,” he said.
According to J. Bačel, this number of patients is more statistical, it is not used anywhere for government decisions.
“It just helps guide how many sick people are walking right now. (…) But the question is, how many people have not been tested and are sick. So look at the number of patients in a peculiar way with a grain of salt, “he told a news conference.
487 cases
Last day 487 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed, 19 people died from the infectious disease and the total number of deaths is 3,013.
Last day, 1,679 people recovered from COVID-19.
Incidence of coronavirus infection in the last 14 days 100 thousand. the population reaches 298 cases.
In Lithuania, since the start of the pandemic, COVID-19 has affected 189 thousand 58 people.
Statistically recovered and currently 171 thousand are alive. 777 people (declared: 120 thousand 287 people), statistically 11 thousand are currently ill. 96 people (declared: 62 thousand 586 people).
The Department of Statistics announced that on Thursday it began the publication of data according to the new methodology. The number of patients was divided between the declared number of patients and the statistical number of patients.
Last day, 4,204 people received the first dose of the vaccine and 1,486 people received the second dose.
In Lithuania, the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine vaccinated a total of 84,000 people. 150 people, both doses – 51 thousand. 844 people.
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