2016 and 2020 Ratings of the winners of the Seimas elections: political scientists have explained why the difference is so great

According to Ainė Ramonaitė, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI) of Vilnius University, the situation in the 2016 Seimas elections was extraordinary.

“Then the peasants were like a new party that joined the wave unexpectedly. Apparently, even they themselves did not expect to win such a victory and the enthusiasm of the people was incredibly high. It’s even a bit misleading, because we did a post-election poll that year and about 30 percent. people said that they voted in the first round for the peasants, which is impossible because they did not get as many votes in the first round “, Delphi said prof. A. Ramonaitė.

LVŽS rating in 2016 from September to December, grew up to 12.8 percentage points. You can see the results of this survey here.

According to the VU TSPMI professor, this also happened because the peasants at that time did not have a clear ideology clearly defined on the political spectrum.

“Nobody honestly knew who that party was here. There were actually some pretty paradoxical things: some thought it was further to the left, others thought it was more correct. They all saw what they wanted at that party because it wasn’t so clear yet. At that At the time, all the other parties, believing in joining the coalition, also did not attack in any way, they condemned that party. Others praised and wanted to be friends, just as there were no enemies for this party at that time. Of course, after things They changed, the image of the party became clearer, but at that time there was such a situation ”, pointed out A. Ramonaitė.

It was supported by Professor Šarūnas Liekis from Vytautas Magnus University (VMU). According to him, in 2016. the high ranking of peasants after the elections was also determined by the novelty factor.

“They had a much higher level of confidence. “The pillow they created in the beginning allowed them to stick well enough for practically the entire period, and actually they now have the same confidence credit as the conservatives,” the political scientist said.

Conservatives view voters very positively or very negatively

Speaking about the current ratings of the latest winners of the Seimas elections, TS-LKD, political scientists unanimously emphasize that this party receives very different evaluations from the entire electorate.

As demonstrated in 2020. According to a poll conducted by Spinter Research from December 10-20, the Conservative welcomes 16.8 percent. surveyed.

“Especially the Union of the Fatherland has had its very bright image since ancient times. There is nothing new for people to somehow suddenly change the opinion they had about this holiday. As you know, Homeland Union is still the party that divides the voters they like and don’t like. If a person who didn’t like him now suddenly starts to like that party just because he won the election, it would be quite strange, “said A. Ramonaitė, professor at VU TSPMI.

In turn, the political scientist Š. Liekis also stressed that sustained voter support for the party could start to crumble when they have to make a variety of decisions during pandemics and crises.

“The managers, because they are at their minimum, their support reflects the number of their supporters, everyone else does not support them much, they are in a dangerous situation, because without that pillow, with problems (crisis management – aut.p.) they will start to fall below their potential number of voters. In other words, they will start to lose their electorate “, – a professor from Vytautas Magnus University spoke about the possible risks for the TS-LKD party.

When the Social Democrats solve internal problems, their voter can choose the LVŽS

Š. At the same time, Liekis pointed this out in 2016. The Social Democrats also faced problems, and part of their voters were able to vote for the LVŽS.

“They (campesinos – aut.p.) then had less attention, they were not attacked. Conservatives and Social Democrats crossed paths and the peasants managed to emerge successfully. Now the task was much more difficult for them than in 2016, ”Š said. Liekis.

However, as the VMU professor predicts, it will be difficult for the Social Democrats to regain the confidence of the electorate.

“So far, it seems to me that Socdems will not be able to successfully return to the left position from which they have deviated. His electorate will go to the peasants, ”said the political scientist.

He also pointed out that precisely because of the ability to gather voters from other parties, the peasants also achieved good results in this Seimas election.

“The end result, since they didn’t put a lot of effort into the fights, it’s very good. They barely won the elections with virtually no effort. If the Polish electoral campaign had passed (poster of 5% of the Seimas elections – aut.p.), they would have formed the Government ”, said prof. Š. Liekis.

In leading candidate rankings, the situation is reversed

Although the peasant party ranking after 2016 The number of winning elections in 2016 was significantly higher than that of the current ruling conservatives, but the latter’s candidate for prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, is now evaluated more favorably than in 2016 Saulius Skvernelis, who intended to become Prime Minister, was considered.

According to A. Ramonaitė, such a situation could have been caused by the fact that I. Šimonytė may receive more support from the voters who support her than the TS-LKD itself: voters value her more favorably as a personality.

“We see that in the case of Šimonytė. If we look at how many votes Šimonytė received when he ran for president and how much the party usually raises, Šimonytė’s personal result is still much better,” said the VU TSPMI professor.

I. Šimonytė, who has already become Prime Minister, is immediately favored by 36.6% immediately after the elections. of respondents, and in September their rating reached 17 percent. Meanwhile, in 2016. In September, S. Skvernel was received by 5.4 percent. In the survey conducted between the first and second rounds, S. Skvernel’s popularity rating reached 13.4 percent.

It is true that in the survey conducted after the elections and its rating increased significantly, to 30.3 percent, but after a month it fell again.

Abu Delphi the political scientists interviewed highlighted that this is not a surprising trend, since the population tends to support the clearer contenders.

“People often choose among those who are the clearest contenders; let’s say that when it became clear after the elections that Šimonytė will be the prime minister, it is the people who see that she would be the most suitable.” Unless they are very determined not to see her as prime minister, ”said A. Ramonaitė.

Professor at VMU Š. Liekis.

“Lithuanians are rational. As they see no alternative, if they ask who could be prime minister, they realize that there is no other alternative. It is a purely rationalist approach,” added the political scientist.

Finally, VU TSPMI professor A. Ramonaitė emphasized that I. Šimonytė’s better rating was also related to the fact that this policy also had a better “starting point”: voters who knew her well and rated the candidate more favorably before the Seimas elections.

“In September, before the elections, we can see that the starting point of how much the rating has risen is different. If Skvernelis from 5 percent. The starting position of Šimonytė was already better in September,” added A. Ramonaitė.