In the ranking of parties before the elections, he noticed a “black horse”: there may be surprises

“These ratings are a little different from ours in the sense that when respondents were interviewed, they were given a list of how they would appear on the ballot and all parties were rated. We also see the ratings of those who intend to participate in the elections ”, says the political scientist in Delfi Day.

According to her, approximately 7 parties can exceed 5% during the Seimas elections. barrier, but there may be surprises.

“The main competitors remain the parties that have long dominated the top of the rankings: the Conservatives and the ‘peasants.’ But we also see that the Social Democrats can seem quite close, “he explains.

“The question is about the ‘workers’: if they will be resurrected or if that resurrection will be minimal. There is also such a” black horse “in the” Freedom and Justice “party, which, according to the latest audience ratings, seems to be able to rise 5% barrier ”, says the political scientist.

According to R. Urbonaitė, it is worrying that voter turnout could fall this year, as several tens of thousands of people are in self-isolation and a significant number of voters may not come simply to protect themselves against the coronavirus.

“On election day we will probably have 30 thousand. people who are in self-isolation. We see a very small number of people who send applications to vote at home, and even finding information about it is not easy enough ”, he emphasizes.

According to R. Urbonaitė, some parties may benefit from low electoral turnout.

“This situation can be favorable for those parties whose voter is sufficiently disciplined or loyal. These are the great parties. Less activity can be beneficial for Lithuania’s Polish electoral campaign, the Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS), which is a niche but also has its own loyal and disciplined voter, ”explains the political scientist.

In his opinion, we will probably not have the same Seimas, but there will be no new “saviors”: “Even the ruling majority will continue to change, but we can have a similar Seimas due to the fact that although there are significantly more candidates, more parties, in these. elections, we will probably not see bright new “rescuers” who would significantly change the face of Seimas. The question is how the number of seats won will be distributed and who will be able to agree on a ruling majority. This question is still worth a million today. “

R. Urbonaitė emphasizes that a great change does not work, therefore it is good that the electoral poster has not been stifled.

“It is not a good thing in itself for us to bring more parties to the Seimas, to fragment it more. We can create an even more unstable situation and have more crises; the formation of coalitions would become even more complicated and there would be even more chaos in the Seimas,” says in the program “Delfi diena”.

According to a survey conducted by the Baltijos tyrimai company from September 17 to 27, commissioned by the Elta news agency, the Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS) has the highest support from voters: 21.2%, the second Union of the Fatherland: Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD)) – 16.3 percent, in third place the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) – 12.8 percent. More than 5 percent. The Liberal Movement (8.3%), the Labor Party (8.1%), Freedom and Justice (7.3%) and the Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign-Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS, 5 0.3 per hundred).