COVID-19 is just one of Trump’s problems: the situation in fluctuating states is becoming critical

Biden has stubbornly led in both the national rankings and the decisive states, while Trump has to defend his position even in those parts of the map where his leadership must be taken for granted, including the traditionally Republicans Iowa and Georgia. In fact, nearly all of the states pollsters consider undecided are the same states the president won in 2016, meaning that Biden has a chance to enter Trump territory.

“I think we’re looking at states that seemed to be guaranteed a year ago and are already fluctuating or almost certainly changing their minds today, which means the president’s opponent is hot on his heels,” said Tim Malloy, analyst at Quinnipiac University. Poll. – Can you expect a surprise in October? Otherwise, you are in danger of falling off the cliff. “

The sympathy of Trump’s voters was clouded by the coronavirus pandemic, followed by an economic recession and race riots across the country, and their attempts to rectify the campaign were unsuccessful. As soon as you get out of a crisis, you get fresh criticism right here for your comments about dead American soldiers or suspicions that you didn’t pay all your taxes, according to the New York Times.

“An avalanche of controversy has led the president to a corner in the Midwest where he has made a lot of promises,” Malloy said.

The average of the state polls in the three most indecisive Midwest states where Trump won in 2016. – In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, testifies that Biden leads by more than 5 points. Biden also leads the country by almost 7 points.

At the same time, Biden and Trump are fighting shoulder to shoulder in states like North Carolina, Arizona and Florida. Word spread last week that Biden had caught up with Trump in Iowa, Georgia and Ohio. D. Trumpas won all of these states in 2016.

“Any strong presidential debate is an opportunity to turn the tables,” said Whit Ayres, the GOP poll, on Wednesday. “You’re trying to persuade people who don’t support you yet to reach out to you, but last night’s debate failed.”

D. It will be difficult for Trump to win reelection without earning at least some of the sympathy of educated suburban voters. However, the president’s fighting stance, refusal to condemn the white supremacist group, and inability to ensure a peaceful transition in the event of defeat destroyed any chance of doing so. Even one of his debate advisers, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, noted that Trump’s performance was “too good.”

Trump campaign spokesperson Hogan Gidley and White House spokeswoman Alyssa Farah said Wednesday morning that Trump’s response – “is clear” – to a call to condemn white supremacists amounts to a conviction.

“How many times, in what other ways does he have to say this?” Gidley asked.

Wh. Ayres said it is difficult for the current president to talk about change, although that is what the voters want.

“Only one in five voters believe that the country is moving in the right direction and this creates a powerful argument for change,” he said. – The promise of change for Donald Trump worked in 2016. elections. The promise of change works for Joe Biden today. Nothing has changed in recent months to change this fundamental dynamic. “

The Trump campaign continues to show self-confidence, even after a widely criticized debate Tuesday night. Trump told reporters Wednesday that “based on almost every poll I have seen, we have won the debate” and boasted on Twitter that the debate had garnered “the highest cable television ratings in history.” .

Voter ratings dynamics for D. Trump are now worse than 2016. Four years ago, on the same day in Ohio, he was leading by 2 points, and today he is 3.3 points behind. In Georgia, he dropped from plus 5 points to minus 1.2 points, and in Iowa, his 5-point lead became a tie.

Doubts in Iowa

Iowa, a state where D. Trump 2016 won by 9 points, indicates that the strengths of both candidates are practically equal. D. Short led Iowa by 6 points five months ago. Now you have completely stopped advertising in this state; its advertising spending has been suspended this week. Meanwhile, Biden discovered the favor of voters over 65 and began advertising on television.

“The fact that Trump didn’t show up here for four weeks is kind of a blink, since Iowa was a supportive state,” said Jeff Link, an Iowa-based Democratic strategist. – Voters 65 and older are currently the most active, paying more attention to COVID. They are more cautious and I think they are more inclined to think that we have left the quarantine too soon. After a coronavirus diagnosis, it becomes difficult to imagine how the president could still travel the country during the campaign, as remote voting is already underway in some states.

Trump also stopped spending money on advertising in Ohio, saving $ 2.7 million last week, despite Biden already leading the country with 3 points. Tim Murtaugh, Trump’s communications director, said the lack of publicity was a “sign of strength” and Trump’s visits to Dayton and Toledo last week said the state was still in his favor.

“If Trump loses Ohio, I have no idea how Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will win,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Ohio has been the best of all these states lately.”