Survey: 52% expect house prices to rise



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Tadas Povilauskas, economist at the SEB bank. Photo by Judita Grigelytė (VŽ).

House price expectations of the Lithuanian population rose further in the third quarter and almost returned to the level of a year ago, according to a survey commissioned by SEB Bank.

In September, the market and public opinion research company Baltijos tyrimai carried out a representative survey of the Lithuanian population on behalf of SEB bankas. A total of 1,041 residents between the ages of 15 and 74 were interviewed. age, in 119 areas of the country.

In September, 52% of those surveyed thought the price of housing in the next 12 months. increase, 15% expect to house pigs, 26% expect no change and the remaining 7% have no opinion on the matter. The value of the SEB Bank House Price Expectations Index, calculated as the difference between the percentages of those who predict house prices and prices, was 37 points. In June, the difference was 29 points, compared to 40 points a year ago.

The lowest point of expectations was reached in March, when only 19% of respondents thought housing would become more expensive throughout the year, and up to 40% of respondents thought housing would be cheaper.

“Such a shift in the population’s optimism about house prices was greater than could be expected in June. Expectations rose as the situation in many sectors of the Lithuanian economy improved in the third quarter, the situation in the labor market and people’s incomes stabilized, and house prices hardly fell even during the most recent months. difficult spring. The population that predicts that housing will become more expensive in the next twelve months is the one that has increased the most in the Vilnius region, but in other regions of the country the population has remained more cautious ”, says Tadas Povilauskas, an economist at SEB bank.

In September, 64% of respondents in the Vilnius region said that the price of housing in Lithuania would increase in the coming years, and only 11% responded that the price would decrease. That proportion of those who think that housing will become more expensive in the Vilnius region significantly exceeded the level of the third quarter of last year, when 55% of respondents predicted an increase in house prices.

In the Kaunas region, in September, 46% of those surveyed thought that housing would become more expensive, one fifth, that it would be cheaper.

In the Klaipeda region, 32% of respondents said that housing will become more expensive in the next twelve months, and that 23% of respondents thought that real estate would become cheaper.

According to the SEB economist, the population’s expectations regarding house prices in Lithuania are likely to be slightly worse in the fourth quarter than in September; The economic situation in Lithuania is very likely to be weaker than in the third quarter and the rapidly growing number of COVID-19 will have the biggest impact.

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