The image in the Seimas may change after the elections: unexpected partisan maneuvers are possible after a new vote

Ignas Zokas, head of Spinter Research, says in the program that the survey did not show any significant change, even though the leaders are already quite clear.

“It just came to our notice then. They haven’t been around for quite a while. The election campaign itself hasn’t shown revolutionary things so far. We have the poll results and this is a photo from today. This is a public photo showing how is the public’s mood.

It doesn’t have to be converted directly to a dash, and that doesn’t mean it has to be converted to five percent, as it is written in these numbers. All numbers must be interpreted. Of course, the leaders are quite clear, but there are quite a few parties whose performance is not very clear to this day, ”says I. Zokas.

What will we see after the elections

Political scientist Mindaugas Jurkynas pointed out on the show that the poll results may not fully reflect what we will see after the elections.

“I’d like to point out one thing that listeners may have already heard, because I’ve said it more than once. Let’s not forget that opinion polls show only half of the Seimas. Even if these figures were absolutely accurate, it would mean that we only count the 70 members of the Seimas who are elected according to the proportional system, as this is what is most reflected in this poll. The other 71 members of the Seimas, as we know from their country’s mixed system, are elected by single members and perhaps more than 90 percent. one of them requires a second round.

This means that the polls do not cover those districts and, say, the results of a single-member election in two rounds and the results in a multi-member district when voting for the list do not really match. We can remember the last elections to the Seimas, when after the first round the conservatives and the peasants gathered almost the same number of votes, but the second round changed the composition of the Seimas ”, recalls M. Jurkynas.

Who can climb 5 percent?

When Zoko asked which parties are most likely to cross the five percent threshold, at least some have been named.

“Again, that script in this place is very conditional, maybe I should draw a clear dotted line that would not be carved in stone, it is just a reflection of certain moods. We are talking about a lot of parties: the Party of Freedom, Liberty and Justice, the Polish electoral campaign, which traditionally always falls, and again this is also related to the methodology of certain investigations.

Admittedly, they are very compact voters, and when we proportionally cover all of Lithuania, the research on this best result does not show it in practically many companies. It is possible to mention those parties: the center nationalists, the Labor Party of Social Democrats, if we talk about those smaller parties, but they all have potential today.

They cannot be canceled and, under favorable circumstances, could exceed five percent. “

More chances of entering – center left

In the opinion of M. Jurkynas, when asked if it is possible for all of us to choose a different Seimas, he assured that it is still difficult to say which image we will actually see.

“We will deserve the Seimas we have chosen. People will cast votes for those and those they want to see. It is an expression of democracy, so we will have to respect it. I understand that each of us has certain political opinions and it is natural that we vote for one party, and everyone else who is elected does not meet our expectations, our values, the results of our government. You know, that prediction is like the coffee grounds fortune-telling because we don’t know the results of the second round. .

A study is presented, a survey on the second option. You are asked which party you would vote for if you did not vote for your party. This is an image here to help you get some guidance on what could happen in the second round of the election. Freedom and justice are in the first place as a second option, and the peasants are in second place, and the conservatives as a second option are the second to last ”, commented the political scientist in the program.

“I would say that the center-left is more likely to form a coalition based on the polls and the results of the second option than the center-right,” added M. Jurkynas.

“The peasants have more opportunities to form a coalition, because ideologically and even pragmatically, there are actually more political parties closer to them. I would say that if I had to bet today, not tomorrow, but today, I would probably form a center-left coalition, because there is only more and it is easier for them to negotiate, at least looking at the previous elections.

Conservatives can perform unexpected maneuvers

According to him, conservatives can also take some maneuvers to help them stay away from the opposition.

“On the other hand, I would not rule out the healthy desire of the Conservatives to be in the ruling coalition, because being in the opposition for the third time, I think, would raise serious questions about Landsberg’s party and leadership – bringing the party to power.

I would not rule out that there could be various maneuvers, concessions, unexpected invitations to the coalition in the Conservative Party, only to end the opposition, ”said M. Jurkynas.

According to the Spinter Research survey, 5 percent of the cartel is being traversed by 5 political forces. The Union of the Motherland – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) follows in first place, with 14.5% of respondents supporting this party in September, compared with 15.3% in August. Second place in the table is still held by the Lithuanian Union of Greens and Peasants (LVŽS). Since the last poll, its result has increased slightly: in September, this party would be supported by 14.1 percent of those surveyed, in August this number was 13.7 percent.

The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), in third place, also maintains a stable result in public opinion polls. In September, this party was supported by 8.4 percent of those surveyed, in August the result was slightly higher: 8.9 percent of those surveyed would have supported this political force. In fourth place in the table – the Labor Party, according to the September poll data, this party is supported by 7.2 percent of respondents, a month ago, in August, this result was lower – 6, 1 percent.

In the fifth position, the Liberal Movement, has greatly improved its result since the last poll in August, although within the margin of error: 6.7 percent of those polled would vote for this party in September, compared to 4, 2 percent in August.