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When the Nagorno-Karabakh clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan begin, Moscow’s demands often bring the two sides to the negotiating table.
This time, however, calls from Russia to end the violence that began Sunday went unheard. This was partly due to Turkey’s rise as a regional power. This has already shifted the balance of fragility in this part of the Caucasus, according to the Financial Times.
READ ALSO: Why is Nagorno-Karabakh so important for Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Ankara’s support for neighboring Azerbaijan and militant rhetoric have fueled the worst violence in Nagorno-Karabakh since 2016 and created a major problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin, challenging Moscow’s regional hegemony.
VIDEO: Armenia and Azerbaijan blame each other for firing in remote Karabakh territory: casualties increase
Turkey’s growing influence
Russia has traditionally tried to remain neutral in this conflict and regards both countries as its allies. However, with a Russian military base in Armenia, the states have signed a defense pact under which they agree to provide assistance in the event of an attack by an external force. And Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan has strengthened Baku and weakened Moscow’s influence over Azerbaijani leaders, FT writes.
“Turkey’s growing involvement in the South Caucasus through Azerbaijan is a fact that Russia does not like. Russian and Turkish interests intersect here more than anywhere else.” Putin and Erdogan have never been true allies and they never will be, “Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow research center, told the Financial Times.
“They focus on their parallel interests and minimize the importance of the differences so that they do not lead to a direct conflict between Russia and Turkey,” he added.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attacked the Armenian leaders after the outbreak of violence and offered his full support to Azerbaijan.
AFP / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Kalnų Karabacho separastistai
“This indicates a major shift in Turkish politics,” said regional expert Thomas de Waal. “Turkey has always offered political support to Azerbaijan, but said that the conflict must be resolved peacefully … There was a political balance when neither side received more support than the other … Suddenly, one of the key players in the region now supports Azerbaijan. “
Turkey considers Azerbaijan a “fraternal country” with which it maintains cultural, linguistic and ethnic ties. The countries have close economic ties, especially in the field of energy.
NATO and the European Union have called on both sides to conclude a ceasefire. A gas pipeline runs through Azerbaijan to transport gas to Europe. In the eyes of Brussels, this is an important alternative to Russia’s gas supply.
On Tuesday, continuing the fighting, Armenia announced that a Turkish F-16 fighter, which had arrived from Azerbaijani territory, had shot down its Su-25 military aircraft. Ankara and Baku have denied such information.
Moscow will limit itself to diplomacy
Russia’s desire to please both sides of the conflict and Turkey’s position mean that Moscow is likely to use diplomatic means rather than an aggressive military response, writes the Financial Times.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin
The Russia-Armenia Defense Pact does not cover Nagorno-Karabakh, so Yerevan could request the deployment of forces only if an attack is carried out in the undisputed territory of Armenia.
“We are likely to see an unusually soft foreign policy response from Moscow,” Richard Giragosyan, director of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies, told the newspaper.
Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat who is now in charge of the Istanbul-based Edam Research Center, said Turkey and Russia will work to resolve the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh without compromising bilateral relations.
However, he warned of the risks if the fighting spread to places like the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, bordering Armenia. Under the 1921 treaty, Ankara promised to defend it.
“If the conflict spreads to other parties, especially Nakhichevan, it will cause a much more complicated episode between Turkey and Russia,” Ulgen told the Financial Times.
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