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Of the 177 candidates, Vilnius residents will elect 13 of their representatives in single-member constituencies. The portal tv3.lt invites you to know in which districts the most intriguing battles will take place and where the winner of the elections is already clear from the day.
Doomed to win?
Lithuanian politicians are very popular in two electoral districts of Vilnius: the candidate of the Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS), Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis and the candidate of the Union of the Lithuanian Christian Homeland-Democrat (TS- LKD), member of the Seimas Ingrida Šimonytė.
It is true that politicians will not compete with each other, but with a group of other better or less known candidates. In the Antakalnis district, I. Šimonytė will fight against the candidate of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), the political scientist Liutauras Gudžinskas, the president of the National Association, the philosopher Vytautas Radžvilas and 11 other candidates.
Virgis Valentinavičius, associate professor at Mykolas Romeris University, has no doubt that I. Šimonytė will win in his constituency, because the constituency of Antakalnis is historically favorable to conservatives.
“Historically, it was the district of Andrius Kubilius. When the time came, he graciously gave it to I. Šimonyte. There, the result is clear,” said V. Valentinavičius on tv3.lt.
At that time, S. Skvernelis challenged two members of the Seimas in the Pilaitė-Karoliniškės constituency: the Liberal Movement candidate Eugenijus Gentvilas and the TS-LKD candidate Radvile Morkūnaitė-Mikulėnienė, and 10 other candidates.
However, V. Valentinavičius is reluctant to state unequivocally that the Prime Minister will be the undisputed winner in this constituency. An associate professor at MRU notes that voter votes are much more fragmented in sleeping areas. Furthermore, according to V. Valentinavičius, S. Skvernelis has his sincere rhetoric.
“Looking at the attacks of Mr. Skvernell’s political collision, as it was in the Seimas, it’s a couple of such cases and the question of whether he will go to the second round.” anger, hatred and criticism “, considered the interlocutor.
V. Valentinavičius also notes that the pandemic, which helped raise the ratings of the Government and S. Skvernelis in the spring, is still continuing and is beginning to upset voters.
“Managing the pandemic in the fall is very chaotic, sporadic and inconsistent compared to the spring. And it could have serious repercussions, turning against the Government and S. Skvernel. I would not dare to unambiguously predict the automatic victory of S. Skvernelis at Karoliniškės, “said V. Valentinavičius.
Reputation can put a foot on the ground
A fierce battle, the winner of which is really difficult to predict, awaits the residents of Vilnius in the Old Town-Žvėrynas district, where 15 candidates challenge each other. Among them are the current members of the Seimas: Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, spokesperson for the Liberal Movement, Mykolas Majauskas, candidate of the TS-LKD, and Dovilė Šakalienė, candidate of the LSDP.
According to V. Valentinavičius, D. Šakalienė has much less chance of winning the first round than his other two opponents, because the Old Town-Žvėrynas district is not a voter of the Social Democrats. However, this is where V. Čmilyte-Nielsen and M. Majauskas can be hampered by reputational problems.
„V. Čmilytė-Nielsen and M. Majauskas are a complicated combination. Lately the old town has been quite conservative, they have easily won there. But M. Majauskas had reputation problems, we will see if it will affect his result
V. Čmilytė-Nielsen also has a hump in his party and corruption cases with MG Baltic. But the party leadership of V. Čmilytė-Nielsen has shown that it is capable of improving the reputation and image of the party. Her public profile turned out to be stronger than the party’s bad reputation. The surprise that such a young person took such a decisive initiative and had a significant impact on the image of the party in a very short time, ”said V. Valentinavičius.
Competition doesn’t matter
However, the candidates themselves are in no rush to calculate which competitors they must face in the Seimas elections. That’s what Mr. Majauskas says right now, he doesn’t think about his opponents, he pays more attention to working with the voters.
“I don’t really think about that today, I try to focus on working with the communities, reporting on the work done and listening to the expectations of the population. I really don’t think it can be the first or the second round, “M. Majauskas told tv3.lt.
At that point, V. Čmilytė-Nielsen admits that she sees herself and M. Majauskas in the second round, but does not rule out the possibility that the situation will change.
“The members of the Seimas, who are apparently the brightest candidates in this constituency, and M. Majauskas, as the winner of the last elections, are one of the most serious candidates. I think he is objective because he is the person with the highest level of ability. of the three mentioned. [kandidatų].
But again, it is difficult to predict, much will depend on our participation in the debate and in the last month, how we will be able to get our message across, ”said V. Čmilytė-Nielsen on tv3.lt.
Doubts of the success of the old politicians
In the Fabijoniškės constituency, the current members of the Seimas will be Gediminas Kirkilas, Chairman of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party, Aistė Gedvilienė, Conservative, and Andrius Mazuronis, Member of the Labor Party. A total of 15 candidates in the constituency.
V. Valentinavičius would be very surprised if the old political wolf G. Kirkilas managed to secure a victory in this constituency.
“He has never won a single constituency. He was a photocopier on the entire list. Because the party list is so desperate in terms of polls and content, G. Kirkilas’s prospects and reputation are the same as his list.” said the MRU associate professor.
In the victory district, V. Valentinavičius does not predict another experienced politician – the candidate of the party “Freedom and Justice” Artūras Zuokas. In the Šeškinė-Šnipiškės district, you will try your luck with 12 more candidates. Among them are the member of the Seimas, the Social Democrat Rasa Budbergytė, the former adviser to President Dalia Grybauskaitė, the conservative Mindaugas Lingė, the Vice Chancellor of the Government and the peasant candidate Lukas Savickas.
‘A. Zuokas, it must be remembered, has not won anything in Vilnius for a long time. Despite all the old legends about his creativity, orange bikes and other things. A. Zuokas was first defeated in his fortress – in the Old City district – then the little-known candidate TS-LKD Mantas Adomėnas, when A. Zuokas was almost at the peak of his fame ”, noted V. Valentinavičius.
Scattered voices
Extremely colorful candidates will compete in the Naujamiestis-Naujininkai district. One of them is the candidate of the center nationalist party, Astra Genovaitė Astrauskienė, a Lithuanian language teacher who painted a fragment of the “Freedom Hill” monument.
Also competing in this district will be the candidate of the Liberal Movement, the Olympian Virgilijus Alekna, the member of the TS-LKD Žygimantas Pavilionis, the candidate of the LSDP, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Antanas Valionis and the candidate of the Freedom Party, Tomas Vytautas Raskevičius . There are a total of 13 candidates in this constituency.
According to V. Valentinavičius, the Naujamiestis-Naujininkai constituency is very specific, so it can be difficult for candidates to get many votes.
“If all Vilnius is dominated by conservatives and liberals, then the newcomers are the furthest from this domain. This is the county where someone else is most likely to win. The support and opportunities of each individual candidate are very rare.
In this constituency, people who have won 15, 18 or 20 percent will advance to the second round. of all votes. There, the fragmentation of the votes of the voters will be very great. It is impossible to predict who will advance to the second round, ”said the MRU associate professor.
It gained popularity during the pandemic.
The Covid-19 pandemic has helped increase its audience ratings and popularity not only among politicians, but also among doctors and other professionals. One of them is the LSDP candidate, director of the Center for Communicable Diseases and AIDS, Professor Saulius Čaplinskas. He will face 14 other candidates in the Lazdynai district, including VU TSPMI political scientist, peasant candidate Valentinas Beržiūnas and event host, performer, former member of the Seimas, Freedom Party candidate, Donalda Meiželytė.
V. Valentinavičius admits that S. Čaplinskas is one of those people that Covid-19 helped to more clearly enter the public space and form his image as an authorized specialist. Therefore, according to the MRU associate professor, the professor has a good chance of winning the first round in his constituency.
„S. Chaplinsky is not a politically proven horse and the possibilities for prediction are always limited. <...> He seems like a serious expert who has commented with authority on the circumstances and handling of the pandemic. His opinion was not always in favor of government policy on the pandemic. He is one of those experts who, in my opinion, gained a lot of notoriety during the pandemic and is universally recognized as a licensed and competent expert, ”said V. Valentinavičius.
The remaining counties
A total of 15 candidates will compete in the Žirmūnai district. Among them are members of the Seimas Kęstutis Glaveckas, a candidate of the Liberal Movement, and Paulė Kuzmickienė, a conservative, as well as Rūta Janutienė, a candidate of the Lithuanian Party – All, and Povilas Gylys, a candidate of the Central-nationalist party.
In the Justiniškės-Viršuliškės district, 13 candidates will try their luck. Among them, the members of the Seimas are the social worker Juozas Bernatonis, the conservative Paulius Saudargas and the peasant Virginija Vingrienė. Also – member of LLRA-KŠS, Deputy Mayor of Vilnius Edita Tamošiūnaitė.
12 candidates meet in Naujoji Vilnia district. There will be a battle between the deputy of the Seimas, the conservative Monika Navickienė and the Chancellor of the Government, the peasant candidate Algirdas Stončaitis.
In the Paneriai-Girgiškės constituency, the electoral battle will take place between the current members of the Seimas, the Social Democrat Linas Balsys, the Lithuanian party, all members Rimas Andrikis, the conservative Agnė Bilotaitė and the employee Artūras Skardžius. A total of 13 candidates in the constituency.
Former members of the Seimas Vytautas Gapšys from Lithuania and the liberal Arminas Lydeka, a member of the Freedom Party Gediminas Jaunius, members of the conservative Dainius Kreivys from the Seimas and the peasant Asta Kubilienė will meet in the electoral district of Verkiai. A total of 13 candidates will compete in the constituency.
13 candidates will fight in the Pašilaičiai district. Among them: member of Seimas, conservative Vytautas Kernagis, VU professor, political scientist Raimundas Lopata, former member of Seimas, social worker Algimantas Matulevičius, deputy mayor of Vilnius, member of the Freedom Party Vytautas Mitalas.
The Seimas elections will be held on October 11.
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