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Lithuanian and Belarusian experts note that the only economically realistic option is the transportation of petroleum products through Russia. However, even this is possible only if Russia agrees to cover the resulting losses.
What Mr. Lukashenko said and what has actually been done
On August 28, Lukashenko ordered the government to find ways to shift trade flows from Lithuanian ports to transportation hubs in other countries.
Then we will see how they will live. 30 percent The Lithuanian budget consists of our cargo flows through Lithuania. What else is needed? Prisprogo. Therefore, we will put them in their place, “he said.
In fact, the situation is different, writes tut.by. Swedbank CEO According to calculations by economist Nerijus Mačiulis, the Belarusian expert accounted for about 0.03 percent through the port of Klaipeda. Lithuanian budget. He was also seconded by the Chief Executive Officer of Luminor Bank. the economist Sigismund Mauricas.
“Total exports of transport services from Lithuania to Belarus (including road transport) in 2019 amounted to 380 million LTL. EUR, that is, about 0.8 percent. gross domestic product ”, says the expert.
The experts noted that Mr. Lukashenko confused the Lithuanian budget with the transit services of the Klaipeda port. The proportion of Belarusians in it was around 30.5 percent. (14.1 million tons from 46.3 million tons) of the total cargo flow in the Lithuanian port in 2019.
It will be difficult to change Klaipeda for something else
The Belarusian news portal tut.by notes that products from Belaruskalij (BKK), Grodno Azot and Gomel Chemical Plant travel from Belarus via Klaipeda. In addition, Belarusian producers of potash fertilizers have invested heavily in the infrastructure of the Lithuanian port.
In April 2013, Belaruskalij for 30 million. dollars bought 30 percent. Bulk Cargo Terminal, one of the terminal operators in Klaipeda.
In 2015, the Belarusian Potassium Company became the main shareholder of Fermitara, one of the port brokerage firms. This allows Belarusians to save on freight transport and obtain other benefits.
“We work in a unified environment, which includes the manufacturers, the seller, the freight services, the agent, the broker, as well as the Belarusian and Lithuanian railways,” tyt.by, shortly after the transaction, said BKK representatives .
In 2019, the Bulk Cargo Terminal transported 10 million. tons, 98 percent. of which – cargo Belaruskanalij. Not only that, it was planned to expand to 16 million. tons per year.
According to Belarusian media sources, the issue of the transfer of cargoes of potassium fertilizer products from the port of Klaipeda “was not seriously considered by anyone”.
“Klaipeda is the nearest port, the fastest and cheapest transfer, own warehouses, ship dispatch. According to these indicators, Russia is losing. There are also doubts that the possibilities available to Russia would allow the transfer of the entire flow of cargo from Belarus. Even if it were allowed, in Russia there is Uralkali, one of Belaruskalij’s main competitors. Working together for them is not the best prospect, new risks are emerging, “a source told the Belarusian portal tut.by.
The fight for oil derivatives
What is being seriously debated is the offshoring of Belarusian oil exports. Belarus exports between 10 and 11 million. tons of petroleum products a year, including about 6 million. tons – through the Baltic ports. In 2020, it is planned to increase exports through Lithuania by 1.4 million. tons to 2 million. tons, because “the direction of Lithuania has become quite interesting for Belarus.”
On September 7, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that Russia and Belarus had begun coordinating the two countries’ ability to transfer Belarusian oil production flows from Baltic ports to Russia.
In 2017, that idea was raised by Moscow itself. Vladimir Putin has even proposed to force Belarusian oil refineries to use the infrastructure offered by Russia. However, Minsk objected, arguing that long-term contracts have been concluded with Lithuania and Latvia.
In fact, the Belarusians carried the test loads. In January 2018, 37 thousand people were transported through the Ust Luga terminal in the Leningrad region. tons of Belarusian gasoline. However, according to market participants, profitability through the Russian terminal was about $ 10 per ton lower than that obtained by Belarus for cargo transportation through the Baltic countries. And this despite the 50% applied by the Russian railways. discounts for cargo transportation. At that time, the transportation of petroleum products through Russian territory from Belarus ended.
According to Infoline-Analitiki, the transport of petroleum products from Ust Luga now costs 1.15 thousand. Russian rubles (about 12.3 euros) per ton, and in Klaipeda – 5.7 euros.
According to market participants, the export of Belarusian petroleum products through Russian territory is only possible with the political agreement of these countries.
“I have made it clear: if they offer the same conditions that we have in the Baltic countries, it will be the same for us,” Lukashenko explained in Sochi on September 14.
“It just came to our attention then. It will be useless for the Russians to work in the Baltic. However, if Ust Luga somehow made up the difference, then everything is possible. However, we have to look a little further: Belarus returns to to be united with Russia. After all, more recently (to encourage diversification) the supply of alternative oil was organized through Klaipeda itself, “said the source tut.by.
Darius Šilenskis, director of Klaipėdos Nafta, expressed doubts to the BNS news agency about whether it would be beneficial for Belarus to redirect its cargo transit to other ports.
The director of a Belarusian oil refinery that exports products from a refinery for export says the company is working to diversify its services.
“KN (AB Klaipėdos Nafta) is already planning to start loading a new product next year – bitumen and is looking for other handling options. This is important to define the strategy of the company and to maintain a “portfolio” of services so that there is no dominance of a client or a load. What it will be like in the future depends on many components, and in the current context, when the strong east wind blows, the rope that we are balancing moves, but we hope that the appropriate decisions will help to maintain the balance ”, said Darius Šilenskis, Director by KN.
The transport inspection procedure has been strengthened
Another threat to the Baltic states could be the restriction of transit flows through Belarus. Lukashenko said the “borders were closed”, probably referring to the transit of goods from Lithuania and Poland to Russia or China.
Last week, after a strong statement by the Belarusian dictator, rumors were actively spread that Belarus would supposedly no longer allow carriers from the Baltic states. However, there is currently no basis for this information. Romas Austinskas, president of the Lithuanian Transport Association, said that only the inspection procedure, which now takes longer, is fundamentally changing.
“I just spoke with the president of a sister association in Belarus, he said that nothing has changed, there is no official document that there will be restrictions or that there will be special attention to the Baltic countries,” Romas Austinskas told BNS on September 10.
A week later, he said the carriers had felt a “more vigilant inspection”: “We feel the problem that there has been a clear increase in inspections on the Belarusian side.” The attached documents look very exaggerated. Any deficiency in the signature of a customs representative, for example, in a declaration or stamp that was never present when everything is done electronically. In that case, they will carry out a physical control of the merchandise, order the unloading, the loading, and order the carrier to pay for it, which will take time.
On the night of September 17, Alexander Lukashenko spoke at an event about “closing the borders with Lithuania and Poland.” Subsequently, the Belarusian State Border Guard Committee circulated a report that enhanced border control was being carried out with the mobilization of tactical reserves.
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