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An hour ago
In the middle of last week, the President of Parliament, Nabih Berri, announced a framework agreement to start negotiations between Lebanon and “Israel” on the demarcation of land and maritime borders between them, under the auspices of the United Nations and mediated by the United States, stressing that this is not a final agreement and that the Lebanese army will undertake negotiations under the auspices of the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun and any next government.
The file of negotiations between Lebanon and the enemy state was opened in 2010, and intermittent contacts continued for about ten years, until the two parties agreed, through US mediation, a framework agreement on 7/9/2020 defining the bases to begin negotiations on the 14th of this month, under the flag of nations. United Nations Agency at the headquarters of the International Emergency Force “UNIFIL” in the Lebanese border city of Naqoura.
Many questions have been raised about the motives and objectives that led the United States, and behind it, “Israel” to accelerate the start of negotiations, about a month before the date of the US presidential elections, and in the middle of a fierce Coronavirus pandemic, which struck both countries and led to political and security unrest and economic losses. Perhaps the most prominent reasons and objectives are eight:
* First, the failure of pressure by the United States to force Lebanon to adopt a plan proposed by its envoy, Frederick Hof, in 2012 to divide the disputed maritime area and its 860 square kilometer area on the grounds that the part of Lebanon would be 500 kilometers and “Israel” 360 kilometers, but Lebanon rejected the plan because the entire area mentioned is entirely within its territorial waters.
* Second, the failure of the Israeli military attacks over the last ten years, especially the 2006 war, to induce Lebanon to change its stance by rejecting the ambitions and pressures of “Israel”.
* Third, “Israel” undertook oil and gas exploration in the Palestinian territorial waters adjacent to the southern borders of Lebanon, established facilities to reverse production, and threatened to extend exploration operations to the Lebanese Exclusive Economic Zone, thereby which led Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah to declare a firm position with the intention of the resistance to respond forcefully. Overwhelming Israeli aggression, which means the destruction of naval facilities installed by the enemy.
* Fourth, the enemy’s commitment, after completing the establishment of its offshore oil facilities, to conclude an agreement with Cyprus, Greece and Egypt, to establish a maritime pipeline to transport gas to Greece, and then to Italy to supply European countries with this strategic material, which requires the total protection of their marine facilities, and which Resolving the dispute over the demarcation of the border with Lebanon to avoid the destruction of their facilities by Hezbollah.
* Fifth, the Zionist enemy ensured Hezbollah’s increased capabilities, as its precision missiles were able to hit the Israeli rear with its vital facilities such as ports, airports, factories, and military bases. In this context, it is worth highlighting a statement by Security Minister Benny Gantz, warning about the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s military capabilities and the need not to underestimate them.
* Sixth, the enemy warned that Lebanon has been suffering since the beginning of this year an economic collapse and political upheaval, which will negatively affect its negotiating position and provide Israel with a rare opportunity to exploit it in the context of its continued attempts to seize a large area of Lebanese territorial waters, where huge amounts of Gas and oil.
The agreement – the framework, simply defining the basis on which the negotiations will take place. So far nothing has been achieved in terms of the content and demarcation of land and sea borders
* Seventh, Israel realizes that Donald Trump is the best and strongest American president who supported, financed and armed it with unparalleled generosity, but his stay in the White House is not guaranteed, as he may lose to his rival Democrat Joe Biden, so you better take advantage of his presence in the White House and exploit his lust. Staying in it tempting him to achieve foreign “victories” to use in presidential elections, and that Lebanon is one of the places available – she thinks – to achieve a “guaranteed victory”. From here it is possible to explain the intervention of the Trump administration with Lebanese officials to persuade them to accept a negotiating framework that appears to take into account the interests of their country.
Eighth, it is difficult for the ruling system in Lebanon, amid the economic and financial collapse in the country, to reject an offer to start initial negotiations with “Israel” according to a framework that takes into account the conditions of Lebanon. and that it may lead to it being able to undertake oil and gas exploration in an area rich in them, with Knowing that the negotiations may drag on, and the current balance of forces in favor of the United States’ opponents in the region may lean more towards favor of the parties in the axis of resistance, which would lead to strengthening Lebanon’s negotiating position vis-à-vis “Israel”.
However, the announcement of the framework agreement by President Berri, an ally of Hezbollah, led the party’s opponents to criticize Berri, on the one hand, and to warn about the repercussions of the agreement on Lebanon’s rights in their occupied lands, on the other, as follows:
Berri was criticized for using the term “Israel” instead of the enemy or the Zionist entity, suggesting, in the opinion of critics, that the Speaker of Parliament has become complacent about his aggression. In fact, Berri revealed the fundamentals of the agreement, the framework that includes several parties, including Israel, so it is not reasonable to include hostile terms against one of them.
Critics have referred to a statement by Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz on reaching “direct negotiations” with Lebanon, which contradicts the fact that Lebanon is still in a state of war with “Israel” and considers it an enemy. of Palestine. The fact is that the framework agreement that Berri announced refers to indirect and not direct negotiations.
Other critics have pointed out that the framework of the agreement refers to the negotiation of disputes over maritime borders, while the disagreements are also related to the land border. At the event, Berri highlighted the intransigence in the negotiations between land and sea borders, knowing that the announced agreement included a reference to the April Understanding and to Resolution 1701 of the 2006 Security Council, which are originally and separately related to borders. land, and the points on which Lebanon is reserved, as it is Lebanese territory. “Israel” still occupies it, and Lebanon continues to insist on ending its occupation.
– However, the most prominent observations and questions focused on the question of Hezbollah’s commitment to respond to the last two Israeli attacks, prompting the emergence of resistance martyrs. Will Hezbollah implement its promise and promise, after the start of the indirect negotiations, which will lead to disruption? Or will he refrain from that, indicating the existence of an “agreement” with the United States for the negotiations to be successful? Hezbollah leaders emphasized that it is not part of the negotiations, that the resistance is still in a state of war with the enemy, and that Sayyid Nasrallah’s promise to respond to Israeli attacks remains valid and binding, and that it will be implemented in when the leadership deems appropriate.
In short, the framework agreement is limited to defining the basis for the negotiations. So far nothing has been achieved in terms of content and no limits have been reached in terms of its demarcation on land or sea. Preparing for the negotiations took more than ten years, and observers and observers are not waiting for it to produce positive results in the foreseeable future, and certainly not before Trump leaves the White House.
Lebanese writer
