[ad_1]
Antoine Hajj wrote in “The Middle East”:
A year ago, interest in Europe was focused on concluding an agreement that would allow Britain to exit the European Union in an orderly manner, which means that a “Brexit” would amount to an amicable divorce. Prime Minister Boris Johnson fought a bitter battle within the Conservative Party to remove Theresa May, then assume leadership of the party and become Prime Minister. After that, he fought an uphill negotiating battle with the Union to amend the exit agreement, succeeding in doing so and persuading British MPs to ratify it and securing his country’s exit from the continental bloc late last year.
Everyone thought that the train had taken the right path and that the transition phase that would shape 2020 would lead to a major trade agreement between London and Brussels that would lay the foundations for a different relationship on both sides of the English Channel. However, the year enters its final two months and matters are suspended, so there are no clear prospects for the shape of the relationship between the two parties after the effects of the European systems that have governed ties for the past come to an end. the current year.
Conditions from here, and counter-conditions from there, a dispute over fishing, and a return to the forefront of the border issue between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, which belongs to the European Union …
All of this and others raise the question of where Britain is heading in its economic relationship with the European Union.
After rounds of negotiations between the two teams led by French diplomat Michel Barnier on the European side and Minister David Frost on the British side, the “clash” did not result in anything tangible.
As German Chancellor Angela Merkel pushes for an agreement, backed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the British newspaper “The Guardian” reports on European officials who believe Boris Johnson is awaiting election results Presidential elections on November 3. November). Evan Rodgers, who was Britain’s representative at the European Union headquarters in Brussels between 2013 and 2017, believes the British prime minister will likely risk a no-deal if his pro-Brexit friend Donald Trump defeats. to his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.
Rogers adds that several European officials believe Johnson will conclude from Trump’s victory, if it happens, that “history runs in his favor” and that his right-wing ally remains in the White House. Therefore, you probably think that you can conclude a fast and large trade deal with the European Union, while the Biden administration will prioritize rebuilding relations with the Union that were damaged in the Trump era for several reasons, the most important of which are business relationships.
Beyond that, there is a belief that Biden and the pillars of his party do not have much admiration for Johnson and his team, believing that Britain’s departure from the European Union has weakened not only the latter but the West in general. Consequently, a Democratic administration in the White House will tend to strengthen Washington’s relationship with Berlin and Paris, as well as with the Union leadership in Brussels, at the expense of London.
Freedom of decision?
Johnson, his team and the entire British public who chose to support Brexit in the June 2016 referendum by the David Cameron government applauded leaving the continental union and restoring freedom of economic and, to some extent, political decision. In their minds a long history of uniqueness and distinction of the European continent in countries that do not celebrate Independence Day because they were not obeyed.
And here is Boris Johnson, encouraged by “Brexit” supporters, insisting that Britain will flourish, whatever the form of relationship with the European Union. On October 16, the man spoke about his people when he said the UK could enter 2021 without an agreement on a future relationship. He asked the British not to panic and accepted this possibility with confidence and optimism.
The only certainty, whether London and Brussels reach an agreement or not, is that the economic relationship between the two parties will change in depth. Instead of the fully open trade that has characterized that relationship since the adoption of the European Union’s single market in 1993, the UK is moving towards trade links burdened by barriers. This is vital for many UK companies and their people. A few days ago, a group of industrial companies from the United Kingdom and the European Union demanded to conclude an agreement that preserves the effectiveness of supply chains and logistics services, in order to keep factories running smoothly.
The automotive industry is a good example here. In 2019, Great Britain produced 1.3 million cars, of which more than one million were exported, and of one million about 600,000 to countries of the European Union. How will exports to these countries now occur if customs duties are imposed? Rather, how will manufacturing continue, which relies heavily on parts that Britain imports commission-free, currently from the Union countries? Will foreign automakers stay in Britain in this case, or will they close their doors and go to other countries?
British negotiator David Frost has repeatedly understood that British cars to be exported to the European Union will not be exempt from tariffs and tariff barriers, and therefore this vital industry will face many difficulties from 2021.
The size of the problem becomes more apparent if we base it on general business activity in countries that have always relied on trade and exports, and the European Union countries are seen as the UK’s first trading partner.
Disconnection prospects
From here it seems astonishing, in a world where economic ties are increasingly intertwined and intertwined, that a country tends to disengage and renounce its membership in a club that has achieved, despite difficulties, many successes. There are those who hope that the British will realize after a few years that they must demand the establishment of free trade relations with the European Union, similar to the relations of Switzerland and Norway with it, that is, on the terms of Brussels, otherwise Great Britain will suffer economically great suffering.
There is no doubt here that the unity of the United Kingdom will be at stake if the economic adventure falters, and the first to claim independence will be Scotland, and perhaps in parallel with the return of the riots to Northern Ireland over the issue of borders. with Ireland …
Will we see London review its accounts after a few years in the direction of knocking on the European door again?
A question answered by the future in between, which is another investigation that has another time.
[ad_2]
