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The answer is not easy, and his chances cannot be confiscated on the grounds that “Biden was already in the deal, and therefore will come back to him.” The truth is that the damage caused by Trump can be permanent or long-term, and the damage caused by him cannot be compensated, even if the new decision makers were the ones who signed the old agreement (Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his Chancellor on the one hand, and Biden on the one hand). The most difficult and complicated part, in the current equation, is the Iranian part. In Iran, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for the Rouhani-Zarif duo to re-convince within its multiple dimensions (the institution of the supreme leader – the Shura Council – the Revolutionary Guard and the military establishment – civil society and the press – and even within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself) that the old agreement will be able to preserve the national interest of Iran. There is a real national consensus in Iran, including even the forces opposed to the regime, that the Islamic Republic has fulfilled its obligations under the agreement, it has fulfilled its obligations, and that its political and strategic performance has not been perfect. However, despite all the guarantees and written and documented commitments that he managed to obtain to preserve his rights, what was achieved was crossed out with a stroke of the pen by the US president. So what guarantees that this will not be repeated? And if the United Nations, the European Union, Russia and China, the international charters, norms and laws, all of them, could not preserve Iran’s right or stop Donald Trump’s hostile policy towards it, how can you trust in a new agreement with Washington?
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard were skeptical from the outset about the usefulness of the agreement with the United States. Khamenei expressed this publicly, when he said that the United States cannot be trusted, but decided, in the end, to listen to Rouhani-Zarif and give them the opportunity to complete the deal, which they emphasized is in the vital interest of the Iranian nation and necessary for its economy and progress. Khamenei gave them the green light, on the basis of “Well, do what you see in Iran’s interest, and we’ll see what happens.” At the same time, he controlled the Institution of the Revolutionary Guards and stopped its influential leaders, who saw that what Rouhani is doing: Zarif transgressed the red lines. And the principles on which the Islamic Republic was built. Khamenei, in his decision, took into account the social pressures to conclude an agreement that is an urgent need to open horizons, emerge from the current crises and integrate into the global economy, saying to the Iranian interior in all its spectra: possible for the sake of Iran’s national interest. Seriously, and we will be patient and flexible, and we will not put obstacles “. And this is what really happened. Iran, with its diplomacy and the acumen of its negotiators, managed to reach a balanced agreement, and all the Iranian people witnessed this, and that ideological considerations did not prevent the regime from acting with wisdom and realism. No one within Iran can blame the regime for the Islamic revolution, or accuse it of political ossification or neglecting the interest of the people because of revolutionary ideological considerations.
How can Tehran trust a new deal with Washington?
But now the picture is clearer and everything is. The Supreme Leader’s doubts were correct, and all those who thought well of the United States within Iran were wrong, and thought that they had managed to overcome the difficult past, and thus they turned a new page. It became clear to everyone that the problem was not with Iran, but with the other side, the American, which refuses to accept a minimum of respectful relationship. Trump, and the parties he expresses (which are many, begin with the Christian right and do not end with the hawks of war in the military-industrial complex) will not accept a deal that he considers a guarantee of continuity and stability of the regime of the Revolution Islamic In the eyes of all these parties, the existing regime must be overthrown, or at the very least, radically changed, for Iran to return to what it was during the reign of Shah Reza Pahlavi, an obedient follower of the American master. Only then could reconciliation with him be possible, in other words: a historic retaliation for America’s defeat in Iran in 1979.
So what to do? The Iranian leadership does not have many options. Even if Biden wins, he should be treated with greater caution, or in other words, not relying on the belief that problems with America can really be solved. As for what might happen on the ground, it is up to Biden to initiate the dialogue, to go back somehow to the nuclear deal itself, or something new that is very close to it. The Iranian official is also expected to respond to the request for a resumption of the dialogue, but will set more conditions, and demand additional compensation and guarantees. This does not deny that Biden and his Democratic Party, with their Machiavellianism and political opportunism, can exploit the situation he inherited from Trump, namely tough sanctions with their devastating impact on the Iranian economy, to pressure Tehran to join the new negotiations, which is in a weaker situation. The matter, then, may take years and years to bear fruit, during which time Iran will continue to apply the same strategy in the region. It is true that he groans under the weight of the suffocating financial siege imposed on him, but the idea of getting back to a quick agreement with Biden, on the same terms as always, is not an acceptable political option. Meanwhile, the positions of the revolutionary wing within Iran were in fact strengthened, at the expense of the moderates, due to Trump and his aggressiveness (and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani contributed to this). Next year, 2021, Iran will elect a new president to succeed Rouhani, and then perhaps we will see a return to the current Ahmadinejad, or something similar, to assume the presidency.
If this means anything to the US side, it is that Biden will have to enter into long rounds of negotiations with Congress, to persuade it to revive the nuclear deal, which is not easy, despite parliamentary elections that may result in a victory. democratic. Iran is expected, this time, to insist on a formal and binding treaty, which will be ratified by Congress (which did not happen in the 2015 agreement), so it would not be easy for any American president to get out of it in the future. . Given the power and influence of the Zionist lobby, congressional approval with its two wings of a deal with Iran is highly unlikely.
Trump was successful in his effort. Not only did he remove the United States from the entire agreement, but he also eliminated the opportunity to go back to the future agreement itself, or any agreement with actual content.
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