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Not surprisingly, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Deputy Gebran Bassil, came out with the positions he announced. What he said comes in a context of “escalation” from his first conference after the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, in which he opened a door open to many possibilities when he said what he wanted to say, that it is not possible to return to his regional government project as did its predecessors, in a clear message to Haret Hreik. A path that continued until reaching its maximum limits yesterday, which puts “Basilio – the project” in danger of being canceled beyond the political, if he crosses the red lines.
However, more important than talking about his seriousness, he was preceded by a group of things, among which the following stand out:
1 – The demonstration of confrontation that came to coincide with the words of Basil in his last appearance, “What you try”, although the slogan was “We are all Republican Guard”, which was notable in that the orange activists “corrected” Ain al-Tineh as the main focus of corruption. Here it is necessary to admit, far from the logic of numbers, that the brother-in-law has managed to show on the street a force that can be trusted to support his political positions.
2 – On the eve of the Prime Minister-designate’s visit to the Baabda Palace, and after a long day of leaks on Hezbollah’s position, I expect a pending settlement at the inflection point in the form, even though the matter is related to the 15-year “murderous” custom of establishing it, in preparation for its legalization when the time comes.
Here, the phone call between President Macron and Bassil, and between the latter and Adeeb, who since his assignment has refused to make any contact with political parties, which is what the Free Patriotic Movement alluded to more than once in Critical terms, it was remarkable.
3- After the first package of sanctions by the United States, which hit the first presidential “rival”, and also his first archrival, amid leaks about the inclusion of his name without specifying a date to announce it. It is striking in this regard that he did not address this issue from near or far, despite his accusation of “inciting” to impose it in accordance with the “Magnitsky” law during the farewell visit of the former US ambassador.
But what is the highlight of what the former minister said and the points on which he focused, on which it was clear that he was different from Hezbollah in particular? The following main points can be mentioned here:
1- On the issue of borders, Deputy Bassil went far in his position in two parallel lines. He considered on the issue of demarcation that the Lebanese interest is a priority. What required the response from both parties that the issue is a national principle, and the second line was their assertion that the Lebanese are not willing to abandon Resolution 1701. Consequently, Lebanon will once again be the starting point of guerrilla operations from their land, in a clear response to what Ismail Haniyeh launched with Hezbollah coverage.
2 – On the issue of the Triangle, I categorically rejected it, knowing that the belief that prevailed in the past among supporters of the Free Patriotic Movement was based on the theory of the role of the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, to restore the powers of the Christian president after stripping them of the Taif Agreement.
A development that can be understood in light of the suspicion of what is happening under the table of negotiations to form the government, which appears to be a French “cupola” to achieve a bilateral consensus between the Future Movement and the Shiite duo. , by giving Hariri a basic role in the negotiations, which in practice means appointing Christian ministers, which is what cannot be accepted or taken for granted due to its connection to the restoration of Christian rights.
The most dangerous thing in this regard is that there is a message that reached the Christian forces that it is necessary to unite around the initiative of Patriarch Al-Rahi, otherwise the Christians will not be at the table next April when the time comes. of a new settlement.
3- His disclosure of the beginning of the return of Hezbollah militants from Syria, and was preceded by former MP Faris Saeed, where the information says that around 2,500 people have returned to Lebanon, apparently as a result of Israeli-Russian pressure on the Syrian regime to end Iranian influence.
Here it is necessary to mention the circulation of information about the trips of some of these returnees to Africa.
In any case, it has become clear from a simple social media analysis that the orange rulers have grown angrier against Hizbullah as a result of its role in bringing the pact to what it has achieved. Therefore, given the changes that are taking place in the region regarding the Free Patriotic Movement, it has become imperative to reposition it and demarcate the dividing lines between the Pact and the Resistance Party, unlike the positions launched during the visit to Nueva York last September. Perhaps in the rest of the age, it can protect Christian interests that are in great danger after they endured. The weight of the confrontation on Haret Hreik and the blows that it entails, without repercussions.
Is it time to abandon the third side of the presidential agreement? Or is it “sold” to buy time on the eve of the presidential elections? Or are you waiting for a US float towards a presidential project that has been completed internally? Will his new posts in Washington, which wants actions rather than words, which has become more difficult for Minister Basil to present, will intercede for him?
Whatever it is, the American position is more than serious, and from today until January, the date of Trump’s departure, should he lose the White House, there is enough time to achieve much of what the successor administration needs, regardless. of your identity.
