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Yerevan – Tuesday’s handover of Armenia, the last of Azerbaijan’s three regions, under the ceasefire agreement in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, raises questions about the future of the latter.
The handover of the Lachin region on Tuesday was the last step in ending the first phase of the Russian-sponsored peace process, following six-week clashes between the two South Caucasus countries.
However, the resolution of the dispute over the unilaterally proclaimed Karabakh Republic, which separated from Azerbaijan after a war in the 1990s, remains elusive.
Armenia had promised that Azerbaijan would hand over three territories that formed a buffer zone surrounding Karabakh as part of a ceasefire agreement signed on November 9.
On Tuesday, the Lachin region was handed over to the Kalbajar region on November 25 and the Agdam region on November 20.
Shortly after midnight, an Azerbaijani military convoy entered the region, which has been under the control of Armenian forces since a war in the 1990s that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of displaced people.
A group of about 10 soldiers, who participated in a brief ceremony, entered the courtyard of an official city building, hoisting the Azerbaijani flag over it.
Baku had regained four other similar provinces within six weeks of the fierce fighting that broke out in late September.
All of these regions have been outside of Azerbaijan’s control since the war ended in 1994.
Thus, tens of thousands of Azeris who were forced to leave these areas thirty years ago can return to them, even if Baku first considers the need to carry out demining operations and rehabilitate infrastructure.
Armenian separatists still control most of the Karabakh territory. The inhabitants of the region who fled the recent battles began to return, knowing that their number is estimated at ninety thousand people, who make up about sixty percent of the population.
And Russia, which has deployed around 2,000 peacekeepers to Karabakh, announced that it had assisted the return of more than 26,000 people so far.
For its part, Azerbaijan, which is rich in oil, has promised to make significant investments to rebuild the regions to which it returned.
But the future of Karabakh remains unclear, especially since the region is completely dependent on financial support from Armenia, and its economy has now been greatly weakened.
Likewise, it is not clear how to coordinate between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the separatist authorities in Karabakh.
“The agreement that Moscow obtained … is ambiguous in several aspects, such as the mandate of the Russian peacekeepers and the organization of the life of the civilian population, whether Armenian or Azeri,” said Olesya Vartanian, an analyst at International Crisis Group.
“If this confusion persists, it could be a source of tension,” he added.
The ceasefire agreement did not address the more complex issue of a long-term future for Karabakh.
For decades, the negotiations were sponsored by France, Russia and the United States within the framework of the Minsk Group, which in the 1990s was tasked with finding a permanent solution to the crisis, but did not lead to a tangible result. .
Russia played a key role in ending the recent battles, confirming its regional position despite the Turkish escalation, which was evident in organizational reports that revealed the transfer of mercenaries from Ankara that fueled conflict in the separatist region.
The ceasefire agreement also showed the growing influence of Turkey, an ally of Baku, which will establish a “focal point” with Russia to ensure respect for the truce.
An agreement was signed after talks on technical arrangements for the establishment and operational principles of a joint Turkish-Russian center.
And the Turkish Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday that Turkey had signed an agreement with Russia to establish a joint center whose mission would be to monitor the ceasefire in the Nagorno Karabakh region.
“An agreement was signed after talks on technical arrangements for the establishment of a joint Turkish-Russian center and its operating principles,” the ministry wrote on Twitter.
“The necessary efforts have been made so that the center is operational as soon as possible,” he added.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan questioned the credibility of the “Minsk Group” and asked last week to exclude France from mediation after the French Senate voted on a text requesting “recognition” of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Observers believe that the new existing situation may facilitate the reactivation of the negotiations, especially since the handover of the seven regions eliminated one of the main points of contention between Baku and Yerevan.
But mistrust in the region remains high, with decades of hostility hard to overcome.
