What are the scenarios for the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

The continuation of military clashes and their intensification for the third consecutive week between Armenian and Azeri forces around the Nagorno Karabakh region, as well as the failure of the ceasefire from its first day, has opened the door to wide expectations of possible scenarios to which the crisis will lead, based on the history of the events, their development and their current repercussions, and linked to alliances. Regional.

On Monday, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar called for the withdrawal of Armenian separatists from Nagorno-Karabakh, in a phone call with Russia’s Defense Minister, who sponsored a truce announced Saturday in the region, but which will soon was raped.

Akar said: “Azerbaijan cannot wait another 30 years to reach a solution”, referring to the first ceasefire that was reached in 1994 and which led to the freezing of the conflict after a war that left some 30,000 people dead.

The Turkish newspaper “Habr Turk” confirmed that Ankara’s exclusion from the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict is unrealistic, stating that Moscow may deploy its forces in the region under the pretext of chaos, as part of its efforts for Karabakh independence.

The Turkish daily explained that the region has become an indirect war zone that no one can fully control, and the vacuum created by the United States opens the way for Russia to increase its influence, noting that the war that resumed on 27 September has dangerous dimensions in terms of weapons, domestic politics and the situation. Geopolitical.

The ethnic dimension
From Istanbul, Turkish investigator Saeed Al-Hajj believes that “the fact that Azerbaijan and Armenia have not responded to Russian calls for calm and dialogue suggests that the clashes between the two sides will probably continue, especially as Turkey it is totally skewed with Azerbaijan, while Russia and Iran call for a ceasefire. ” In exchange for the almost total absence of the United States and the silence of the European Union. “

Al-Hajj excludes expanding the fighting into open warfare, because this may turn it into a broader regional war, which Russia will not allow due to the geopolitical and economic importance of the region, as well as the intertwining and complexity of the system of alliances in it.

Hajj told Al-Jazeera Net: “At the current stage, Baku is confident of making quick achievements on the ground that can become pressure documents on Armenia in any subsequent political process, because the nature of the mountainous region and its rough roads make it difficult the achievement of a decisive military victory. “

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He added: “It is unlikely that the Minsk group, which is concerned with resolving the conflict in the Karabakh region between Azerbaijan and Armenia, is playing an influential role in resolving the crisis, while Turkey is critical of it and the United Nations in light of its inability to advance the implementation of Security Council resolutions. “

The researcher on Turkish affairs believes that “Turkey is taking advantage of the absence of the United States, and is trying to establish an alternative regional or international framework to contribute to a solution of which it is a part.”

On this basis, Al-Hajj suggested that Turkish-Russian understandings on the Caucasus crisis would emerge, similar to the understandings that were established between the two countries in Syria and Libya in the absence of the United States. Because the two countries have the potential to influence both sides of the conflict.

Consequently, the scenario of maintaining the status quo and moving between periods of calm and escalation is the most likely at present, while events on the ground could lead the two parties to a state of negotiation between the two parties with mediation. Russian or Russian-Turkish in the medium term, according to researcher Saeed Al-Hajj.

The Idlib stage
On September 30, 2020, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu proposed the idea of ​​resolving the Karabakh conflict by the “Syrian way”, by establishing safe corridors and conducting joint patrols in the areas of the proposed demarcation of the lines of separation between the forces.

In the context, the Turkish military expert Ismail Hakki believes that the Russian military base in Armenia (which includes 5,000 troops), can play the role of Hmeimim’s base in Syria and become a guarantor to initiate a peaceful dialogue to resolve the conflict in Karabakh.

Hakki tells Al-Jazeera Net: “Turkey and Russia have the fundamental role to reach a settlement of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, so the only way to reach a settlement in the South Caucasus is through the negotiation, in accordance with United Nations resolutions that demand the restoration of Baku’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, and respect for the rights of Armenians living in the region and the return of refugees, which makes the Idlib scenario is the most likely one for the future agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the foreseeable future.

Armenia is likely to approve of this scenario in the event that the Azerbaijani army continues to take back large areas of the region, amidst the superiority of the Azerbaijani army with Turkish military support.

And he adds: “Among the proposed scenarios are also the targeting of giant Turkish projects, including the railway line (Baku Tbilisi Kars), the electric transmission line (Baku Ceyhan) and the Silk Road plans that Turkey is discussing. with Beijing and Moscow alike, in case of inconvenience from the United States and the instruction to move stones there. ” .