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Second is the Corona pandemic crisis, the fallout of which has undermined Donald Trump’s chances of renewing his term. It was no coincidence that a medical advisory committee had been formed to handle the Corona crisis, before the names of candidates for key positions in the new administration were announced.
Third, there are the needs to energize the economy, as another urgent test given that the former president improved economic indicators during his term, before his mismanagement of the pandemic crisis undermined them.
Fourth, there is the reestablishment of the United States’ role as a leading position in the Western alliance, especially within “NATO” in which trust has been broken. This is a priority that requires closing political gaps with European partners by once again recognizing the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as returning to the international organizations from which it withdrew as an organization. Global health, but some of the setbacks will not be easy, such as the nuclear agreement with Iran, which began to be calculated in advance by raising the ceiling of the negotiations.
Fifth, there is an urgent consideration of the future of the American empire, looming on the turbulent horizon, the possibility of a decline in its position in a new international order that rises from under the rubble of the pandemic, in favor of the rise of the influence of China with its economic weight and Russia with its strategic weight.
Then comes the whole Middle East, with its crises and conflicts, unless accidental emergencies lead to changes in priorities, as happened after the September 11 incident in the George W. Bush administration, or what happened after the storms of the “Arab Spring” under Barack Obama. .
The impressions overwhelmed Joe Biden. From any objective point of view, Biden is not a shadow of Obama. Vice President, these are human natures and different times. He indicated that meaning himself in his second and final debate with Trump. In the main composition, Obama’s information on the Middle East was limited and his rhetoric was missionary, sympathetic to the Islamic world against the background of his family roots without translating his sympathy into concrete and influential policies and positions in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Biden, by contrast, is an expert and is familiar with what was happening in the Middle East from his position at the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the United States Senate for many years prior to his tenure as vice president. He is sympathetic to the Hebrew state and sees himself as a Zionist, like many leaders of the Democratic Party.
There is another fundamental difference between Trump and Biden, in the degree of Zionism to which they belong. The first, a copy of the Zionism of Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremist settlers, and the second, is closer to the Zionism of Shimon Peres and the founders of the Jewish state.
As broad as Biden’s strategic outlook, he’s more dangerous than dumb Trump. Whatever Trump has accomplished for the Jewish state, he will preserve and confirm it, without neglecting the supposed Palestinian partner. Talks about “the two-state solution” and “postponing controversial issues to negotiations under the auspices of the United States” are expected to regain prominence, as if rotating and consuming time. On the other hand, talks in defense of democracy and human rights will have more echo in the diplomatic rooms, and skirmishes and pressure may occur with traditional allies of the United States, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The new US administration is not willing to review its strategic relations with the three countries, but will use the record of freedoms and human rights to reorder the accounts of power in the region.
I hope we review the American experience during the Obama era, when the winds of change blew through Egypt in January 2011. Biden, with veteran leaders in the White House, did not tend to remove Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, while Obama, along with With a group of young people gathered around him, he made a choice. Change. With a pragmatic mindset, the two teams worked together to employ the stormy accidents in accordance with America’s interests and strategies to redraw the maps of the region, into division and division. They bet on the “Muslim Brotherhood” group, which is the most organized and present on the street and at the same time the most prepared to conclude understandings that preserve US interests and recognize Israel. Neither the Obama administration was a Brotherhood, nor was his deputy Biden a member of the international “Brotherhood” organization! They are strategic perceptions before and after all, far from all circulating credulity.
The circumstances are different now. New American approaches to the record of human rights and freedoms in Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, driven by Western human rights groups, research centers, and academia, will certainly come under pressure, which was not the same. impact on the Trump administration, which did not care to any degree about that record. The best possible Egyptian option to counteract the anticipated pressures is to improve the record by opening the public space to the natural diversity of society and releasing pre-trial detainees, without their having been involved in acts of violence and terrorism. As the record of human rights and freedoms improves, Egypt will acquire true immunity that unifies its general will.
As for the other two countries, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the equations are more complicated. In strategic terms, both are indispensable allies of the United States. The first, by virtue of the fact that it is the second military force of “NATO”. And the second, by virtue of its strategic location in the Gulf region and its oil wealth.
The Turkish problem goes beyond what is attributed to the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in terms of restrictions on freedoms and evidence of corruption agreements that he brought together with the former US president, to become involved with weapons in the Libyan crises , Syria and Iraq, and the conflict over gas in the eastern Mediterranean with other allied countries such as Egypt, France, Greece and Cyprus.
If the United States removes the protective covering from the Turkish incursion, the equations will be different. Under potential pressure, Turkey may agitate to transfer its alliances to Moscow, and this is a final pressure card in the power plays, if the Biden administration aligned itself with French positions as an entry point to unify the western camp again. The Saudi problem materializes in its fear of reestablishing the Iranian nuclear agreement and confusing its regional accounts, as well as its fear of threatening Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, if Biden reopens the file of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. . All scenarios and possibilities are available, but are temporarily postponed under pressure from the multitude of pesky priorities.
* Egyptian writer and journalist
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