Washington’s return to the nuclear deal … not so easy



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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that if US President-elect Joe Biden wants to return to the nuclear deal, Iran will immediately return to its obligations in the deal.

Zarif added, in an interview with the newspaper “Iran”, that his country “did not oppose or oppose the negotiation”, but said that “it is possible within the framework of the 1 + 5 group”, that is, after the return of Washington to the nuclear deal, noting that “the United States did want to be a member of the nuclear deal that Trump withdrew, so we are ready to negotiate how the United States joins it.”

Zarif expected better conditions during the term of the next US president, saying: “I hope that the conditions, thank God, the continued resistance and the good conscience of the Iranian people, will be much better.”

Zarif turned to Biden and said: “If Mr. Biden becomes president of the United States and is installed in the White House, he can, by issuing three executive orders, cancel all sanctions and say that the next president of the United States The United States will not be able to cancel these sanctions with just words. “

Commenting on press reports saying that Washington’s return to the Biden era of the nuclear deal will be conditional on Iran’s return first to the nuclear commitments it halted, Zarif said: “What defines the condition is Iran, as he and Group 1 + 4 must accept the return of the United States to the nuclear deal. ” .

This comes at a time when the Israeli Foreign Ministry is working to develop a strategy to initiate contacts on Iran with the Biden administration, in order to try to influence the content of any new nuclear deal that is expected. that Biden tries to reach.

Walla reported that Israel’s Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said during a closed-door briefing to members of the Knesset Foreign and Security Committee: “We don’t want to stay abroad again,” and that Israel must refrain from repeating the mistakes of the past that caused it to remain isolated during the administration of former US President Barak. Obama negotiated the nuclear deal in 2015.

A member of the Knesset quoted Ashkenazi as saying during the meeting that Israel’s Foreign Ministry estimated that the Biden administration would implement the president’s election promise to try to resume the nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew. Ashkenazi said Biden’s advisers also knew there were weaknesses in the 2015 deal and that they should be tried to correct.

Senior Israeli officials said the Foreign Ministry has formed a task force, led by Ashkenazi, that will work on developing a strategy on how Israel can remain in the face of future negotiations between the United States and major countries and between Iran, and how it will influence the Biden administration’s position on the issue and content of the deal.

Israel is concerned about losing all the gains it made on the Iranian record with Trump’s departure from the White House. With only two months in his presidency, Trump has little to show after four years of anti-Iran aggressiveness, says the Washington Post in an article titled: “Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran is about to end in failure.”

He adds that, contrary to the tone of his administration, the reimposition of sanctions did not bring Iran back to the negotiating table for a tougher deal. And the “maximum pressure” campaign has not limited Iran’s influence and interference in its neighborhood. The regime maintains a foothold in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria through representatives and allies whose positions are in some cases stronger now than a few years ago.

“It has become clear that some ideologically driven Trump administration officials view maximum pressure as a strategy for the eventual collapse of the religious system in Tehran. However, they could do little as rounds of mass protests inside Iran were brutally repressed by government forces “. Meanwhile, US maximum pressure tactics have strengthened the militant camp in Iran ahead of next year’s presidential elections.

While the economic sanctions have caused deep pain to the Iranian economy and ordinary Iranians, they have forced Iran’s rulers to restart construction of their enriched uranium reserves, which may now exceed 12 times the level set by the nuclear deal. 2015. Theoretically, Iran is closer to building a nuclear weapon than it used to be. About him when Trump took office.

He adds: “While Biden’s promise is the happiest of the other signatories to the deal, who were angry at Trump’s withdrawal from him, getting back to the way things were can be impossible and complicated by Iranian policies. and Americans … Trump, even if he’s a lame jerk, moves. ” “To rapidly increase US sanctions against Iran and sell advanced weapons to its regional enemies, policies that are difficult for a new president to undo.”

Iran, where President Hassan Rouhani faces stiff opposition from conservatives in elections scheduled for June 2021, is expected to demand a high price to return to the deal, including the immediate lifting of sanctions imposed by the Trump administration and thousands of millions of dollars in compensation. Those are demands that Biden is unlikely to meet, especially given strong opposition from Congress.

Iran has some influence. When Trump took office, Iran had nearly 102 kilograms of enriched uranium, the production of which was limited under the 2015 agreement. The International Atomic Energy Agency said last week that Iran now has more than 2,440 kilograms. “.

Some believe Trump will take further action, including more sabotage and cyber attacks on Iran’s nuclear or missile programs or even military action, which Israel, Egypt and allies in the Gulf are likely to support.

Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a longtime supporter of a tough policy toward Iran, says: “I don’t think the administration is done with the Iran problem … I think people will act. aggressively for the next three months against Iran, knowing that after January there may be a different policy towards Iran. “

If the Iran deal can be reformulated, Iran has said it is open to talks on other issues, especially regional concerns about Iraq and Syria. But Iran has so far refused to put its missile program on the table, which is already subject to separate sanctions by the United States and the United Nations.

The key, as with all major policies in Iran, is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 81. He regards the United States as a country doomed to failure in “political, civil, and moral deterioration.” He accepted the nuclear deal because it promised significant economic benefits from the lifting of sanctions, and now he appears to be analyzing his doubts about the United States confirmed by Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement. But with the change in American leadership, he sees once again the possibility of easing again the economic restrictions imposed by the United States.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment says: “Despite Khamenei’s arrogance, Biden’s presidency represents an opportunity and a challenge for Tehran … the opportunity is an opportunity to improve the country’s dying economy. The challenge is that Tehran will no longer be able to effectively use Trump as an excuse or distraction for its internal repression. ” Its economic failure and its regional aggression “.



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