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Suddenly, Russian forces stepped into the middle of the “Iranian Corridor” (the overland highway) connecting Tehran with the Mediterranean, according to an unannounced agreement concluded in the last two days with Iranian militias deployed in the Syrian city of Albu Kamal. , and decided to establish military points for them on the Syrian-Iraqi border. .
The arrival of the Russians to the borders with Iraq is considered the first of its kind in years, and it is a development that has several military dimensions, linked to the symbolism that Albukamal represents for the Iranians, since it is the most prominent stronghold for them in eastern Syria, and the station that mediates its overland route, which is considered Tehran’s most prominent expansion project to connect it with Damascus. And the Mediterranean coasts through Iraq by land.
Iranian and Iraqi forces and groups supporting the Assad regime are deployed in a large area in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, especially between the border towns of Albu Kamal and Al-Mayadeen, and since last year, Iran has recorded images satellite building the Imam Ali base, which includes department stores and a secret tunnel.
Publication and regulations
Although the agreement was not officially announced by the Russians or the Iranians, informed sources confirmed in statements to Al-Hurra that its provisions have become a fait accompli on the ground, as forces belonging to the Fifth Corps were deployed yesterday, supported by Russia, in the village of Al-Hiri, located on the Syrian-Iraqi border is five kilometers deep.
The sources, who asked not to be identified, explained that the agreement provides for the withdrawal of the “Harakat al-Nujaba” militia, the Lebanese “Hezbollah” and the “Iraqi Hezbollah” from the village of Al-Hiri, provided it is replaced by the “Fifth Corps”, in addition to the Russian police. To carry out patrols from time to time.
Under the agreement, Iranian militias that control al-Bukamal will hand over military headquarters to Russian forces within the city, which is their first station since Iranian control of the region, in 2017, following battles that fought against ISIS.
Sources indicate that the forces of the “Fifth Corps”, during their deployment in the village of Al-Heri, traveled in Russian vehicles and flew the flags of Moscow, and their number was not high, but estimated in the dozens, as long as their deployment In the next few days he will focus on three points within the village of Al-Heri and its surroundings.
Syria shares borders with Iraq that extend for about 600 kilometers, more than half of which are in Anbar governorate, and includes the Al-Qaim crossing on the Iraqi side, which is known as the Albu Kamal crossing. on the Syrian side.
Since 2017 and until now, the Iranian militias stationed between Albu Kamal and the city of Al-Mayadeen have not been spared from Israeli bombings, in addition to air strikes carried out by the international coalition, led by the United States of America, in attacks that killed dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guards, as documented. Local networks and the “Syrian Observatory for Human Rights”, several times.
Preventive actions
The Russians moved on more than one axis in the Deir Ezzor camp in eastern Syria, before the aforementioned agreement was reached. In the last three days, Albukamal has witnessed several meetings between Russian officers and Iranian militia leaders, in order to coordinate the new deployment in the region for both parties.
Parallel to their meeting with the leaders of the Iranian militia, the Russian officers met with the notables and sheiks of the clans of the city of Mayadin and the villages that connect it to Al-Bukamal. Air in it.
The sources add that, during their meeting, the Russians spoke of their intention to fully control the region, either in terms of bombing or ISIS attacks from time to time, without providing any clarification on the relationship they would have with the Iranians who are found widely dispersed in the region.
The aforementioned meeting was reported by the Assad regime news agency (SANA) in a report it published on 16 this month, stating that it focused on “asking Americans and Turks to leave Syrian lands, to return them to authority. of the Syrian state. “
On more than one front
Throughout the last years of the war in Syria, the interests of Russia and Iran have intersected on more than one front. The common supporter on the ground is the Syrian regime and its president, Bashar al-Assad, and the enemy is the opposition military factions and, more recently, ISIS.
But the scenario after nine years seems to be different, and it is no longer the same as before, because the Russians are facing a difficult equation, in the context of their great rapprochement with Israel on the one hand, and at the same time their ongoing relationship. with Tehran, which shares the Assad regime with them.
And considering that the Albu Kamal agreement is a remarkable advance, and it comes at a time that precedes the arrival of the new American administration, but according to the general reality of the Syrian scenario, it is considered a first step in the broader movements. the Russians have been working on, for almost two weeks, from eastern Syria to the south, west and north.
The arrival of Russian forces on the Syrian and Iraqi borders had been preceded by Russian movements in the framework of patrols on the “Bravo” line that separates Assad’s forces from Israeli forces in the Golan, as well as visits by Russian officers in the As-Suwayda governorate, in order to reach a “settlement” agreement, the details of which are unclear. until now.
In northern Syria, the Russians have moved for the past two weeks into areas controlled by Kurdish forces in the Raqqa countryside, in an attempt to enter Ain Issa, which is threatened by “National Army” factions and Turkey.
What do the Russians want?
A political analyst specializing in Russian affairs, Raed Jabr, says that Moscow is rushing to put field arrangements on the Syrian map, in order to form a fait accompli before the new American administration, anticipating its unpredictable steps and what it will do. In Syria.
Speaking to Al-Hurra, Gabr added that Russian movements are taking place in eastern Syria with the Iranians, the southwest with Israel, and in the north with the Turkish side on one side and with the Kurdish component on the other side. , adding that “Russia is urging full-field arrangements on more than one front.”
Regarding Iran, the Moscow-based political analyst believes that what Russia has worked to achieve in reaching the Syrian-Iraqi borders comes in the context of its messages to the United States and other parties that it is capable of controlling the Iranian presence, especially in the contact areas and sensitive areas in the east and southwest with the Golan.
The deployment of the Russians in Al-Bukamal and on the borders with Iraq, according to Jabr, as part of the preventive measures with the US side, in case the dialogue on the Iranian presence in Syria is opened, in the next stage.
A two-sided equation
For his part, the military expert, Brigadier General Ahmed Rahal, indicates that the Russians have an equation that they are currently trying to reconcile between the parties, and while the first part is related to the Russian consensus on the one hand and the American side- Israeli, the other side is the Iranian-Russian conflict.
Rahal clarifies in statements to Al-Hurra that Russia does not want to reach the collision stage, in the sense that it presents itself as the one who has the advantage in Syria and, therefore, can alleviate the concerns of the United States and Israel.
Rahal, a resident of Istanbul, believes that the arrival of the Russians at the Syrian-Iraqi borders is a Russian message that it is present in the region, and the Iranians are not deviating from it.
But the step taken by Moscow may not be absorbed by the Americans and Israelis, according to the military expert, “because they know that the Russian presence within an entire field of Iranian forces and militias is a point of a difficult number, which cannot have no benefit. “
On the other side of the equation, the military expert considered that Russia feels completely immersed in the Syrian quagmire, and that it is unable to find a solution, and at the same time does not have the advantage.
He says: “Iran continues to confirm that it is the closest to the Syrian regime, and that the latter is the closest to Moscow. In the military equations, we see that the Iranians are imposing their order and sending messages that their word also resonates in Syria”.
Fit more
Many Iranian-backed militias loyal to the Syrian regime are scattered in eastern Syria.
Especially in the city of Al-Bukamal, whose inhabitants did not return to only a small percentage, after the recent military operations against the organization “ISIS”, in 2017.
Among the most prominent Iranian militias are: “Fatemiyoun” and “Zainabiyoun”, which are widespread in the vicinity of the cities of Al-Mayadeen and Albu Kamal, in addition to the militias affiliated with the Iraqi “Hezbollah” and “Harakat al- Nujaba “, which are spread over various bases and locations on the western banks of the Euphrates River. .
What is surprising about the Russian movement in eastern Syria is that it is carried out by militias that also support it, such as the “Fifth Corps” and the “Jerusalem Brigade”, which are currently involved in military operations in the Deir Ezzor desert and the Homs desert against the remaining cells of the “ISIS” organization.
Wael Alwan, a researcher at the “Bridges of Studies” center, links the arrival of the Russians to the Syrian-Iraqi borders with the full narrative of the Russian movements in southern Syria, in order to “readjust the Iranian presence.”
Speaking to the Al-Hurra website, he said: “I am convinced that Russia is not working to expel Iran from Syria or limit its influence to the extent that it controls its provocative Israeli presence,” adding: “In the east From Syria there is an Iranian presence attacked by Israel and it needs some restraint. “
The Russians’ goals to control the Iranian presence are not limited to the Israelis, but their eyes are on the cells of the “ISIS” organization. The Syrian researcher explains: “Russia wants to control the problem north of Albu Kamal and the area west of Deir ez-Zor, in order to completely cut off communication from ISIS as well.”
