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As the world continues its marathon race to besiege the Corona virus by tightening the shutdown at times and imposing strict precautionary measures at other times, American researchers have devised a simple way to find out the probability that an event guest is infected. with the emerging Corona virus, based on a mathematical equation presented on the Internet that has received great popularity.
If there are ten people at the same table, the risk that at least one of those present will be infected with the virus is 32% in Paris, 18% in Washington and 58% in Prague, for example.
Crown – expressive
Simple equation
This mathematical equation is simple and is based on real-time data on the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic presented in an easy-to-read manner on a website that has been gaining increasing success since its inception in July at the initiative of researchers from the Georgia Technical Institute in the United States whose methodology was approved in an article published in the journal. The prestigious “Nature”.
The website “Covid-19 Risk”, available in English, fell victim to its success on Thursday due to the large number of visits it received, and messages appeared saying that sometimes an error occurred.
Researchers also assess the likelihood of risk based on the official total of cases counted each day at a given site. The model also takes into account that the actual number of infections is five to ten times greater than the total number of positive diagnostic tests. A user can base one of these two assumptions (5 or 10 times) on his calculations.
Ten times greater
The percentages reported above are based on the assumption that the risk is ten times greater.
The user can also choose the size of the event while specifying the number of people expected to participate in it, be it 10, 25, 50 or one hundred, up to 5,000.
The site takes a strict approach, according to its founder, Joshua Weitz, as a person is supposed to remain contagious for ten days, while other researchers believe that this period ranges from 5 to 6 days, although viral deposits remain later. .
The approved model also does not take into account that the person infected with the virus will probably stay at home and will not participate in the event after symptoms appear, since its authors base on the fact that most infections are caused by people who have no symptoms to a great or absolute degree, or who are unaware of their infection.
“We hope that this information will deter people from organizing big events,” said Joshua Weitz.
The intensive care unit for the treatment of Corona patients in Texas – France Press
Millions of victims worldwide
In addition, a Reuters statistic showed that more than 52.45 million people were infected with the emerging coronavirus worldwide, while the total deaths from the virus reached 1 million 289 thousand and 498 cases.
HIV infections have been recorded in more than 210 countries and regions since the first cases were discovered in China in December 2019.
The United States ranks first in terms of number of deaths, with a total number of deaths reaching 241,809, while the number of confirmed injuries reached 104,18639, followed by India with 128,121 deaths, 8683916 injuries, then Brazil with the number of deaths 163,373 and their confirmed injury 5,748,375, followed by France with deaths amounting to 42,960 and total cases 1,898,710.
