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Far from those who will be freed by the US ballot box on November 3 to lead the United States, Iran will face tough decisions anyway, and any deal it signs will be more difficult than before.
According to an analysis published by Foreign Affairs by researcher Muhammad Ayatollah Tabar, many are expecting a new round of shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington after the US presidential elections next month.
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has expressed his confidence, in case of his re-election, that he will be able to conclude a new agreement with Iran, while the presidential candidate, Joe Biden, said that if he is elected he will return to the previous nuclear agreement.
This means that whoever is in the White House, a return to negotiations and understandings with Iran will be a reality, but this time it will face a tough deal, as Washington damaged Tehran after withdrawing from the nuclear deal and practicing the maximum pressure sanctions policy, which reduced the Iranian economy by about 7. percent, and the value of the currency fell.
The analysis indicates that US sanctions have provided “decisive influence” to Washington, and in the event of an agreement, Tehran’s concessions will be more.
The second Trump administration, if successful in the election, will increase the pressure with little incentive to reach a deal, and Biden will ease sanctions in exchange for more restrictions on nuclear activities.
Does the nuclear deal fall?
Aside from the US side, there are factors that can lead to the downfall of the nuclear deal and make reaching a mutually satisfactory deal very difficult.
An analysis published by The Guardian newspaper said that “Iran’s conservatives who assume most leadership positions” make it difficult to return to the nuclear deal, especially if a hardline president wins the upcoming presidential election in 2021.
Analysis by the newspaper’s diplomatic affairs editor, Patrick Wintour, indicated that reformists in Iran have been severely affected, especially after the deal was not continued.
What Trump did was like “blow up the whole negotiating room.” Therefore, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif justified the US withdrawal from the agreement and the economic pressures that followed.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, although one of the supporters of the agreement, is led by internal calls to strengthen relations with China.
The analysis shows that even with Biden winning the election, he will take office at the end of January, which means that the reformers have little time left to persuade the Iranian interior to return to the path of dialogue with the West.
But Biden’s success may be like a ray of hope for Iranians, and it will contribute at least to changing the general atmosphere of society there.
In 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the international nuclear deal with Iran, as Trump deemed it insufficient to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb and to end its “destabilizing” behavior in the Middle East.
He then reimposed all the U.S. sanctions that were lifted in 2015 while tightening them.
The Trump administration announced that its goal is to weaken Iran so that it “changes its position” in the region and negotiates a “better deal.”
But as the Republican billionaire’s first term nears the end of the billionaire’s first term, the Trump administration has made no progress on either front, according to an AFP report.
