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In its last days, the month of October witnessed an intense exchange of messages between the countries active in the Syrian archive, especially Russia and Turkey, sharing on the ground the geographies of several regions, mainly Idlib in the northwest, and al East, where they control the Syrian Democratic Forces (Qasd), supported by the international coalition, led by the United States of America.
The messages that were exchanged were not oral or within political statements as usual, but with fire, since the details were written by air strikes from fighter planes on the one hand, and on the other with mortars and artillery shells, what which had a special effect, especially in the region of “Ain Issa”, which is the administrative capital. And the political (Kurdish) “self-administration” in northeast Syria.
Ain Issa, in the northern countryside of Raqqa, had witnessed, in recent days, an unusual bombardment by the “National Army” and the Turkish army, which occurred after Assad and Russian forces suddenly began to withdraw. , at the rate of two daily convoys, which opened the door to discussion. Ankara is working on preparations to gnaw on new areas of “Qasd” in the eastern Euphrates, after months of hibernation on the fronts, which had completely changed over a year ago, during the start of Operation Peace Fountain by part of the Turkish army.
Ankara still expresses its intention to eliminate any danger along its southern border with Syria and, despite its control over the space between the cities of Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, it is “not satisfied” with this alone, that it is something that Turkish military and political officials confirm between the period. And the other.
Analysts agree that Turkey is moving along its borders with a “long-winded” strategy, which has been applied in the “Euphrates Shield” and Operation Olive Branch, and more recently, Operation Fountain of Peace, which is yet to be completed, and which Ankara can complete along the strip. The border, at any time and when circumstances permit, after receiving the green light from other international powers active in the region, led by Washington.
Reasons may drive Ankara to war
Years ago, and based on the data witnessed in the Syrian countryside, military operations by Ankara or other active states could not be carried out without preparatory movements for them, which recently appeared in eastern Syria, as the army Turkish repeatedly announced the massacre of members of the “Syrian forces”. Democracy, since they launched infiltration operations towards the “Euphrates Shield” and “Olive Branch” regions, which is considered by Ankara as a threat that threatens its interests and its “national security”.
This coincided with statements by the spokesman for the Turkish presidency, Ibrahim Kalin, in early October, in which he said that the two agreements concluded by Turkey with Russia and the United States in eastern Syria include the phrase “Turkey reserves the right to self-defense and intervene against any terrorist entity “. Noting that “this clause gives Turkey the right to defend itself and intervene in the region if its territory or presence in that country, whether in terms of soldiers, civilian employees, humanitarian workers or others, is attacked by terrorist organizations.”
A spokesman for the Turkish presidency stated: “Turkey has the right to intervene at any time against the PKK or an ISIS-affiliated entity in Syria, Iraq or elsewhere, and there may be interference at any time.”
The researcher on Kurdish affairs, Badr Mulla Rashid, in an interview with the Al-Hurra website, does not rule out the occurrence of a new military operation in the eastern Euphrates by Turkey, for several reasons, the first of which is the increase in tension between the Turkish and Russian sides in various local and regional files, in addition to the occurrence of Tension between Turkey and the European Union, especially France, which has advisers within the international coalition forces in northeast Syria .
And the researcher adds that Turkey, to this day, has demands from the Russian and American side to implement the Erdogan-Mike Pence Agreement, and then the Sochi agreement between “Erdogan” and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, which rotates around stopping the “Fountain of Peace” operation in exchange for the withdrawal of the “People’s Protection Units” (Imad Qasd). Al-Askari) at a distance of 30 kilometers south of the Turkish-Syrian border.
Turkey says the aforementioned agreement has yet to be implemented and makes it a pretext for any anticipated military operations in the region.
According to the Kurdish researcher, “the delay in reaching an agreement between the Kurdish National Council and the parties of the Kurdish National Alliance, led by the PYD, also casts a shadow over the possibility of the United States stopping the desire of the Turkish side to implement and expand. its operations east of the Euphrates. “
It has become known that one of the most important demands of the United States and the Kurdish National Council is the departure of non-Syrians from the ranks of the Popular Protection Units and the administrative apparatus east of the Euphrates.
“Balance of critical moments”
Ankara is not alone in the forefront of the scene east of the Euphrates today with its military maneuvers. There are other powers that cannot allow a new stage for the region, except with their approval, especially America, which had recently clashed with Russia on the ground, while the latter was conducting military patrols for it. To access oil wells.
Russia recently tried to win the “SDF” to its side to expand its influence in the region and achieve a fait accompli that could put pressure on Washington, but failed. Syria was with their approval and it came because of the American withdrawal.
The limit placed by the “SDF” against Moscow and the lack of a full response, pushed the latter, according to analysts, to another path, which would soften the position of the former, to move to Ankara, which hinted at an anticipated military operation, in in the event that the terms of the “Sochi” agreement were not met.
Qamishli-based Kurdish researcher Shavan Ibrahim linked the occurrence of any military operation by Turkey in the east of the Euphrates with the extension of the implementation of the “Sochi” agreement, signed in November 2019 between Turkey and Russia.
The investigator told Al-Hurra that Russia realizes that its most dangerous card for the future of the SDF is the withdrawal of Ain Issa, which means that “areas like Tal Rifaat, Meng, Tal Tamer and Darbasiyah will be under the threat of the Turkish threat “.
What is the importance of “Ain Issa”?
The city of Ain Issa is the political and administrative capital of the Autonomous Administration in northeast Syria, and its fall is the big blow for this project, according to Shafan Ibrahim.
The researcher explains: “At present, the presence of the Autonomous Administration has moved to Raqqa, but political, administrative and economic deliberations are still carried out under the name of Ain Issa”, noting that “it is not easy to change the capital or headquarters in times of war. “
Ain Issa is only 55 kilometers from Raqqa city to the northwest, and before 2011 it was an administrative district in the Tal Abyad area of Raqqa governorate, which would later be annexed to the “Ain Al-Arab” area. (Kobani).
And in the event that Ain Issa is controlled by the National Army and the Turkish factions, researcher Shafan Ibrahim points out that “the political project of the Autonomous Administration will be in its final stages, especially because it lost previous points and key areas that they are pillars and carriers of it. “
And beyond the village to the border strip with Turkey from Ras al-Ain to al-Darbasiyah and al-Malikiyah in the Far East, the Kurdish researcher hopes it will remain unchanged until “the new US policy on the region and its seriousness in preserving it, especially because it represents a knot. The most important land and river transportation in the entire region, and the oil and gas transportation route. “
Ibrahim believes that the current borders remain a “fragile security”, although they have not been modified for almost seven months, and turning their maps into static needs requires more agreements and more serious designations, and subsequent changes in local government structures, and the restoration of security, military and political structures, whether for “Self-Administration” or clarifying the fate of Afrin, Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, in terms of: Will it become totally dependent on Turkey, according to the Resulting compatibility with Russia, or its return to its current people, which means the existence of new deep lines of relationship between the Kurds and Turkey?
Endless skirmishes
The “Syrian Democratic Forces” deal with the Turkish military skirmishes in their regions, as it announces that it responds to the bombings on a daily basis, and opens the door to the next stage from the angle of the new American position, which will be formed after the results of the presidential elections.
Riad Dirar, co-chair of the “Syrian Democratic Council” (the political arm of the SDF), says: “I do not know what the Turks are thinking about the region”, dismissing any major military operation in the coming days, comparing it to what he said. the US envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, that there is no possibility of a new demographic change.
Dirar added in statements to the Al-Hurra website: “There may be an exchange of verbal or artillery bombardment between the Russians and the Turks (referring to him as Ain Issa), but as a result the matter will not reach the limit of changing location, and they may meet at a later time to figure this out in Sochi or Astana. ”
Regarding Washington and its presence in eastern Syria, the “SDF” co-chair believes that “the American need to remain in the region is a necessity, as the United States cannot protect its remaining presence in Iraq and its hope in political calculations except by staying in eastern Syria (…) his presence is … the force of his presence in any political settlement, and if he left, he could be forced to leave the Middle East in its entirety. “
In the context of the above, researcher Badr Mulla Rashid hopes that the skirmishes will continue in the east for a long period as long as the international parties that control the Syrian dossier have not reached a consensus formula, either in terms of the process. political that represents the implementation of Resolution 2254 of the Security Council, or a consensus on the destiny of the military forces. East and west of the Euphrates.
It says: “The countries that control the Syrian archive will continue to use the paper for military operations until a consensus formula is reached on the political and military archives.”
