Trump needs a historic mistake to win

The final stage of the voting process in the United States confirmed what opinion polls had revealed in recent weeks, that is, the progress of the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden. Four-way polls conducted by the “New York Times” in conjunction with “Siena College”, the results of which were released yesterday morning, showed that Biden has made sufficient progress in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin that it is enough to give him an easy victory. The Des Moines Register (DMR) poll conducted by Ann Seltzer Saturday night showed the former vice president fell 7 percentage points in the state of Iowa, while the ABC poll showed Donald Trump won twice in Florida and fell seven points in Pennsylvania. .

Overall, the message from the polls was clear: Trump is losing the election, including the major swing states, by not an insignificant margin. This in no way means the absence of the possibility of the current president winning, especially since major mistakes can occur on the sidelines of the vote, but betting on mistakes to tip Trump, with this difference in favor of Biden, is almost impossible. .
The results of the latest opinion polls (yesterday evening, Sunday) were as follows:
Arizona: Biden 49, Trump 43 (New York Times / Sienna)
Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44 (New York Times / Sienna)
Pennsylvania: Biden 49, Trump 43 (New York Times / Siena)
Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 41 (New York Times / Sienna)
Iowa: Biden 41, Trump 48 (DMR / Selzer)
Pennsylvania: Biden 51, Trump 44 (Washington Post / ABC)
Florida: Biden 48, Trump 50 (Washington Post / ABC)
Consequently, Biden’s 6 percentage point lead in Arizona gives him a backup route to victory, should he fail in Pennsylvania. Although Biden’s campaign will be disappointed to lose Iowa after the results appear close in several other polls, this result is simply not as good as it seems to Trump. The latter won Iowa by 9 percentage points two years ago, and if he lost 2 percentage points of support in the northern battlefields, he would lose the election. Iowa, with its six votes in the Electoral College, is not a great prize for either candidate. But what matters for the Iowa poll is the Senate race, as Teresa Greenfield’s efforts to evict Johnny Ernest look worse than a month ago in a race that could decide whether Democrats or Republicans take over. of the camera.
On the other hand, the ABC / Washington Post poll, which brings good news for Trump, gives him victory in Florida by a slightly higher margin than in 2016. From here, Trump can only win by a historic mistake.
Hillary Clinton led the polls in 2016, but lost the election, dealing a blow to public confidence in pollsters and forecasters. But much of the overconfidence in Clinton’s progress at the time came from sites that predicted that his chances of winning 90% or more were based on bad role models and not a bad vote. Small polling errors happen all the time (in fact, it happened in 2012, and no one says Obama won less than expected), and a candidate is unlikely to lose by 2 or 3 percentage points. However, Trump was down 6 or 7 percentage points in Pennsylvania and lower rates in North Carolina and Arizona, indicating that the survey errors will be related in part to errors in Pennsylvania. None of this means it is impossible to win, but doing so would imply a bigger voting error than in previous elections, and raise questions about whether major public opinion polls can continue to carry out reliable polls.

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