Towards transferring the budget and maintaining the “Knesset”?

The internal political scene in Israel does not remain stable for long. As you move nonstop from crisis to crisis, the latest of which is the prospect of dissolving the Knesset and heading for the fourth election in just two years, amid a split within the Likud party, which also withdrew from the Blue and White match. And the elections, if carried out, will lead, as expected, to a decline in the power of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the departure of his rival in the last two years, Benny Gantz and his party, from the political arena. With the emergence of a new right-wing entrant, polls suggest that he will have an important and balanced position in the next “Knesset”, which is the Gideon Sa’ar Party, the “Likud” party that recently split from his party.

Perhaps one of the most important impending quotas in Israel is the approval of the state budget, with the deadline set for that midnight from Tuesday to Wednesday. And if the current governing coalition does not approve it, the Knesset will automatically dissolve and early elections will be held next March. The dispute over the budget is tied to the most important part of the association agreement between Likud and Blue and White, which is the clause of the rotating prime minister, which Netanyahu is supposed to hand over to Gantz in a few months. According to the agreement, it is assumed that the budget law for the years 2020 and 2021 will be approved in one go, to which the Likud refuses to adhere, and only wants to approve the budget for the current year even though it is nearing its end. , as long as the 2021 budget is approved separately in March. Next. Therefore, Netanyahu will ensure that he will remain prime minister during the transition period if the Knesset is dissolved or the government itself is toppled. Unlike the above, the post of prime minister will pass to Gantz, which is what the latter wants to guarantee in case the Likud decides to leave the coalition (or for any other reason). Therefore, the only tool to prevent the seat from being transferred to Netanyahu is to approve the two budgets together. One aspect of the disagreement is also related to the judicial appointments that include the government’s attorney general, which the Minister of Justice, who is from “Blue and White”, intends to complicate it in the face of Netanyahu, who wants in exchange to elect the judges who adapt to the course of their trial, and perhaps prevent it from the original, if They, and specifically the prosecutor, were in tune with the prime minister, to push them to prioritize their own interest.

The post-election future seems open to many possibilities

In view of this, the boundaries of the settlements appear very narrow. For Gantz, the abandonment of the clause that approves the two budgets means practically resigning the position of rotating prime minister, and this time also putting his destiny in the hands of Netanyahu, which, according to the Hebrew media, amounts to his transformation into a versatile “cloth”. At the same time, if Gantz provokes snap elections, opinion polls indicate that he will back down significantly, winning no more than five seats after winning 33 seats (along with others) in the last election, and perhaps also, and more likely, that does not reach the electoral threshold. Required, and falls outside the political arena.
And at Netanyahu’s door, things don’t look any better. After his opponent, the leader of the “Yamina” party, the former Minister of Security Naftali Bennett, whose opinion polls gave him the position of the second party in terms of the number of seats in the next “Knesset”, is an element that worries him. If he wants to form a government after the early elections if he decides to go to it, Today, he also suffers another inconvenience, and perhaps a threat, related to Gideon Sa’ar’s “Likudist” split from his party, and his leadership of forming a new party through which he will run in elections, and hopes to compete for prime minister. While opinion polls delayed the “Yamina” party to third place, they advanced the Sa’ar party to second place, having jumped to more than twenty seats. As for the Likud, it is expected to win 25 seats, after its 36 turnout in the last elections.
In the end, the danger to Netanyahu is grave. According to expectations, the camp of the center and left will withdraw with a mixture of the “48 Palestinian parties” to the point that it cannot form a government, while the right will divide each other between two camps: Netanyahu and his supporters for one side, and Sa’ar and his supporters on the other side, and each of them cannot) On the formation of the government (58 seats for Netanyahu and 59 for Sa’ar), which will restore things to what they were in the previous elections, even if the competing personalities changed and were limited to the Israeli right, regardless of their names.
Thus, the post-election future appears open to many possibilities, with what is certain is that heading to the elections threatens Netanyahu and would end the political life of Gantz and his party. And this same expected result is the one that is most likely to agree on compromises between the two of their differences, and if this is not possible, postpone the next – imminent right and its effectiveness to resolve the “Knesset”, which is the approval of the budget. for at least another two weeks, and work during this period to find solutions that are difficult to predict. Because of the intertwining of the dispute and its complexities. Until midnight tomorrow, the matter remains open to more than one possibility until the last minute, even if the date to approve the budget is postponed, and according to him, postponing the dissolution of the Knesset is more than possible.

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