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The French initiative “took shape” with the ins and outs of internal reality seeping into his veins and turning it into material for interpretation or investment. What happened? And why did the 15-day period pass without the government being born?
A political figure who is at the same distance from the internal forces is trying to distribute equally the responsibilities for the failure of the French initiative and the delay in the formation of the government. The former heads of government asked, without taking into account the position of president of the republic, which is an inevitable partner by virtue of the mandatory signature, nor the role of other components without whom the government does not gain confidence.
And the danger in Adib’s behavior, depending on the personality, is that he almost repeated what the President of the Republic was doing before the Taif Agreement, in terms of uniqueness with his political incubator in the selection of ministers and the formation of the government, “knowing that it was these“ real ”powers that ultimately led to the outbreak. The Civil War of 1975, without neglecting other factors as well. The war did not end until after the signing of the Taif Agreement, which transferred many of the powers from the President of the Republic to the Council of Ministers collectively, and not exclusively to the Prime Minister. Consequently, the attempt by any designated president to play the role of Maronite president in the first republic should be avoided, as this behavior is fraught with risk and involves a great adventure, threatening to fan the embers of obsessions and restore the history at a high cost ”.
The second mistake Adeeb made, according to the estimates of the open-minded personality, is that he neglected the principle of consulting with others for a long time, and at least with the Shiite duo who opposed taking away his finance portfolio and imposing ministers on him. Shiites, prompting Aoun to make it up to him. Through parallel consultations he conducted at the Baabda Palace, before Adib realizes the situation and meets yesterday with the two Khalileans, “noting that dialogue is one of the pillars of organizing diversity in a “state project” like Lebanon, then what if the matter is related to the formation of the cabinet that became the center of decision and authority under the Second Republic. “
Adeeb, according to the character, should have communicated within 15 days with the main forces, because the distance is dry, perhaps he could turn corners and dismantle the nodes that hinder the birth of his government, especially since the “duo “He showed willingness to deal, but he complained about the absence of consultation with him.”
As for the saying that Adeeb wants to form a government of specialists independent of politicians, and that is why he tried to weave the threads of a consistent ministerial team and refused to enter the bazaars to negotiate with internal forces, the personality points out that This approach is not correct, “because Adib himself is not 100% independent. After his name was suggested by the club of former prime ministers, and at the head of them is the head of the Future Movement, Saad Hariri, in addition to having previously held the position of director of the office of President Najib Mikati. Later, when he embarked on the effort to unilaterally form the government, the sponsors of his name intervened in proposing ministers according to their standards and calculations, so that the influence of the former heads of the government club was clear on the president-designate, to change from the absence of others and the attempt to impose canned training on them under penalty of charging them the consequences of the failure of the French initiative. .
the other side
As for the responsibilities of the other side, the character who prefers to be classified in the position of “doer of good” considers that the Shiite duo must act in a pragmatic and pragmatic way, and that it must, more than others, facilitate the French initiative so that don’t lose a European country as big as France to a demand. Ministerial, important and vital as it may be.
The character indicates that it is possible to understand the duo’s motives for hardening their position, especially after the new round of US sanctions, which this time specifically challenged President Nabih Berri, “But one of the means to face American pressure is win over Paris and build confidence. It is between him and the “duo”, it is not about complicating their mission and clearing the scene for the Americans.
This character points out that France is the only Western country that continues to communicate with Hezbollah and recognizes its political role. “It is not a simple matter for President Manuel Macron to sit down with the head of the Bloc of Loyalty to the Resistance, MP Muhammad Raad, and launch positions Realistically avoid the exclusion and isolation of the party, which led to the withdrawal of the issue of arms and the demand for early parliamentary elections of deliberation, and ended with the understanding of the duo’s insistence on sticking to “financial”, at a time when US pressure and sanctions against Hezbollah and its allies were increasing. .
It is true that the French initiative and Macron’s openness to Hezbollah are framed within the framework of Paris’s calculations about his influence in Lebanon and the region. However, this does not prevent, according to the conclusions of the personality, that “there is an intersection of interests that can be used to alleviate the international siege of Hezbollah and Lebanon through the French window. in the world”.
This character indicates that the next government will implement a specific “important issue” and is unlikely to last long. “There is nothing wrong with the” duo “showing flexibility in approaching the issue of training to cross this stage in the best possible terms, advising them to “sell” this supposed flexibility to the French, and to win them more and more to their side, instead of Washington trying to isolate him and Lebanon after Paris turns off the engines of its initiative.
The neutral figure calls on all parties to comply with the French initiative, on the basis of mutual concessions, before it is too late and plunges into the unknown tunnel.
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