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Hadeel Farfour wrote in Al-Akhbar: By the end of this month, the number of patients infected with the Corona virus who need intensive care is expected to exceed the number of beds available in Lebanon, according to the findings of an investigation prepared by the professor. of Physics from the Lebanese University and the Lebanese International University Omar Deeb. And the professor of economics at the Lebanese American University, Maya Jalloul, studied four scenarios for the rate of spread of the virus until the end of this September, ranging from “the maximum level of spread that was recorded after the explosion of the port of Beirut to controlled spread after the gradual reopening of the country. “
The research is based on the data available since the beginning of the spread of the virus (last February 21) and was based on mathematical simulation models, reaching that by September 30 the number of infections ranges between 39,000 and 74,000, and that the number of registered infections per day can range between 930 and 3,400, according to Khadija. Measures of social distancing and degree of adherence to them “.
Assuming that 1% of infected people need intensive care, the research expected the number of these people to reach more than 336 by the end of this year (which is the number of beds announced by the Ministry of Health that will be available) should the infection continue to spread at the current rate, “and this constitutes a real threat to the capacity of The health sector is willing to absorb these cases, especially as intensive care beds are not only necessary for patients in Corona, but for a large number of people with chronic diseases. With continued relaxation in the application of spacing measures, the health sector can reach a state of saturation and the inability to absorb new cases before the end. September » , and “this is what would constitute a health disaster and would raise the death toll and leave dozens of patients out of intensive care rooms.
And the researchers previously published a scientific study last July in which they predicted the number of cases expected over a 6-week period, and the injury results on that day matched the numbers they had established.
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