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2020 was a transformative year in every sense of the word for the Middle East and North Africa: the peace accords between four Arab countries and Israel, the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, and Lebanon plunged into an epidemic of corruption and economic collapse.
Transformations that will establish, in one way or another, what next year will bring, which begins with the title of change of power in the United States and the presidency of Joseph Biden with the departure of Donald Trump and the team of hawks, including Jared. Kushner and Mike Pompeo from power.
Biden’s presidency and his vision of the Middle East are radically different from those of his predecessor Trump. There is no ideological and electoral element to go so far as to flirt with Israel as Trump did in moving the embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 and acknowledging the annexation of the Golan in 2019, and at the same time Biden will not be hostile to Israel, and was who said in the hall of Congress in 1986 that “if there were no Israel, the United States would have to. The invention of the State of Israel to protect its interests. “There is also Biden’s fear of drowning in the Middle East, and he was in favor of withdrawing from Iraq, and the candidates for Defense and Foreign Affairs in his administration, Lloyd Austin and Tony Blinken, oversaw the pullout in 2011 before returning in 2014 to fight ISIS.
Consequently, these four priorities are looming in the new year as the driving force for America in the Middle East.
First, the negotiations between Iran and the United States: regardless of the depth of the crisis between Washington and Tehran, which Biden will inherit from Trump, the conditions are ripe for negotiations between Iran and the United States, the most prominent of which is the nuclear archive. Iran seeks these negotiations and Biden is not opposed to them, and lobbyists have begun to prepare a practical agenda for them that, unlike Barack Obama’s negotiations with Tehran, makes them comprehensive in form and content for issues that go beyond enrichment and nuclear counterattack. At least the focus of these negotiations will include ballistic missiles, which has become a demand that Germany, as well as France and Britain, support and are driven by countries in the region. So far, Iran is opposed to merging this dossier with its nuclear negotiations, but the bar of sanctions Biden carries, much of which is tied to the ballistics program, postpones any economic advance for Tehran without lifting it. There is also a regional insistence led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to participate in the next negotiations with Iran and have a regional framework that makes its fate acceptable in the region and from Congress, which makes any agreement with Iran a treaty of difficult exit for any future American president. Biden’s team is aware of the importance of negotiations with Iran and stopping the nuclear clock, and secretly led it in the Sultanate of Oman in 2011. This time, there is a more complex international and regional landscape that requires an expansion of its framework and table to reach an agreement that will not be overthrown by a future American president.
Second, fixing the relationship with both Saudi Arabia and Turkey: the change from Trump to Biden also means a different vision in the alliances that Trump led in the region. The close relationship between Trump and Riyadh, the first capital he visited in 2017, and his personal friendship with Recep Tayyip Erdogan defined an exceptional framework for bilateral relations. This framework that Biden will seek to replace with a fresher one, and addresses American priorities and the demands of Congress. With Saudi Arabia, this means concentrating Biden’s team on ending the war in Yemen, freeing activists and improving communication opportunities between Israel and Saudi Arabia. As for Turkey, the new sanctions will not be lifted without Ankara freezing the S-400 missile system it bought from Russia. Biden will also seek to pressure Erdogan in Syria, especially regarding the relationship with the Kurds, the Turkish presence in the north, and the future of the relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Third, focus on reducing the influence of Russia and China: Limiting the influence of China and Russia will be a high priority for the Biden administration in its dealings with all players, including the Middle East. Turkey’s arms deals with Egypt and Libya with Russia are a point of contention with the United States, as is China’s economic penetration of transportation, agriculture, and the media in the Gulf and North Africa. In a changing world and facing the rise of the “sleeping tiger” in Beijing, there is American concern about competition in the region.
Fourth, limit American military adventures in the region: All of these priorities are for Biden to redirect the American compass to Asia and Europe instead of the Middle East. Today, the bases of Deir al-Zour, al-Tanf and Ain al-Assad are not a priority due to the threat of the advance of China and its occupation of Taiwan. Consequently, the military, economic and diplomatic power of the United States will be diverted from the adventures of the Middle East and the competition with Iran, and will go to Asia to protect American supremacy. This cannot be done without consolidating the Atlantic alliance, today threatened by the investment agreement of the European Union with China.
The year 2021 carries the signs of the beginning of the Iranian-American negotiations, a shift for Joseph Biden in his view of the relationship with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and a realignment of America’s priorities away from conflicts in the Middle East and towards reducing the influence of China.
Source: Free
