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On November 5, 2020, armed clashes broke out between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a core component of the former ruling party, the EPRDF, which ruled the country for nearly three decades. Almost. There is a deep background to the conflict with current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, but many other reasons have led to the outbreak of the conflict at this time, the most important of which are: the government of Abiy Ahmed postponed the presidential elections due to the pandemic of the Coronavirus (Covid-19). This provoked widespread objections among the various political forces and parties, and the government dissolved the Revolutionary Democratic Front and the establishment of Abi Ahmed’s Prosperity Party as a replacement, as well as targeting members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front party. These actions led the TPLF to hold internal elections in the region without the consent of Addis Ababa. What caused the outbreak of the crisis.
The country’s conditions on the eve of the crisis
The EPRDF, which included a coalition of four major parties, notably the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, held the reins of power in Ethiopia for more than three decades (1991-2018), after Mengistu overthrew Haile Mariam with the support from Sudan, and was able during this period to achieve high rates of economic growth, which in some years reached around 10 percent. But the political and economic situation deteriorated dramatically after the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who was also the leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and ruled the country for almost two decades (1991-2012) with an iron fist. And the country began to witness a state of continuous unrest starting in 2015, culminating in protests in the Oromia region in early 2018. On his impact, Abiy Ahmed reached the head of government (after being director of General Intelligence and de facto ruler), after understandings that resulted in his election as leader of the Front alliance. Revolutionary Democracy for the Peoples of Ethiopia, in April 2018. Launched a campaign to purge the Tigrayans from the articulations of power after their accession to power.
Abiy Ahmed’s arrival was popularly welcomed, especially among young people who played a prominent role in the 2018 protests, especially after he launched a series of reforms, including the release of political prisoners and permission for the establishment of political parties. opposition, and thanks to his speech calling for national unity in a country where more than 80 groups live. Ethnic. But these hopes were soon dashed. With the return of political discontent, and assassinations became common in different parts of the country, amid repeated protests against the government, the level of rebellion was reached, especially in the Oromia region, to which Abiy Ahmed himself belongs. , amid accusations that she did not show much interest in her ethnic interests, that she was suspended She has high hopes, especially after she has been marginalized for a long time, even though she forms one of the largest ethnic groups in the country . At least 616 people were killed in the Oromia protests, which erupted in July 2020 over the murder of a well-known popular singer. The authorities prosecuted more than 4,000 people, including top Oromo leaders and other opposition leaders. In the south of the country, as allowed by the federal constitution, one of the large groups in the south, the Sidama ethnic group in July 2018, submitted a request to the federal government to hold a referendum for the secession of the Territory of Nations, Nationalities and Pueblos del Sur (SNNPR) and the formation of a new region of its own. . This was the first request of its kind at the Ethiopian level. Despite the success of the referendum in 2019, many problems remained, such as the subordination of “Awassa”, the provincial capital, as well as the borders of the region; Which portends a conflict with the territory of the nations, nationalities and peoples of the south. At the national level, Ethiopia has been affected by the Corona pandemic and has had significant economic, social and political repercussions.
From hopes to tensions
As soon as Abiy Ahmed came to power, tensions escalated between the capital, Addis Ababa, or the federal government, on the one hand, and Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region, on the other; Where Abiy Ahmed worked to implement a series of measures aimed at purging the institutions of the federal state of the members of the old ruling coalition, the Democratic Revolutionary Front, which was led by officers and officials, most of whom hail from the region of Tigray. Many leaders, especially military and security forces, were arrested, except for those who managed to flee out of the country or into the Tigray region. The province, which effectively administers some form of autonomy, has refused to hand over the fugitives to the federal government; That was the beginning of the political rift between the region and the capital, Addis Ababa. The objective of these leaders is due to their participation in the ethnic domination of Ethiopia. The federal government also believes that the EPRDF did not agree to lose power in 2018 and was therefore behind a series of terrorist operations, sabotage operations, and undermining of security, including numerous assassinations; In doing so, it seeks to undermine Abiy Ahmed’s administration to force him to make room for a transitional government instead of the current government.
On the other hand, the front believes that Abi Ahmed turned against him when he decided to dissolve the EPRDF, after he used it to gain power. The National Elections Council received a message from the head of the front, Abiy Ahmed, that this front no longer exists as a political party and has been replaced by the Prosperity Party, which the TPLF refused to join. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front believes that this decision represents a constitutional violation and goes against the will of the Ethiopian people, who elected the members of the parties that made up the alliance. A large part of the Oromo oppose him, as he is the sole ruler and is moving away from democracy under the pretext of preserving Ethiopia’s unity and development, and this is a priority over democracy. And this is a kind of favorable adoption of the ideas of the President of Eritrea, Isaias Afewerki, as many Ethiopian commentators have suggested. Tension between the federal government and the Tigray region increased after Ethiopia’s Supreme Council, the “Federation Council”, extended the mandates of the federal and regional governments for several months due to the outbreak of the Corona pandemic. A step that the region considered unconstitutional. Consequently, the region went ahead with holding the regional council elections on September 9, 2020, despite warnings from Addis Ababa and that voting was deemed illegal. Turnout in district elections was around 98 percent, with nearly 2.7 million voters, according to the Tigray Election Commission; The TPLF won a large majority, winning 152 of the 190 seats.
The main opposition parties in Ethiopia, numbering more than a hundred, have voiced their opposition to the new electoral law, which was passed before the outbreak of the Corona pandemic. He believed that this law is adapted to the size of the Prosperity Party. The National Board of Elections rejected the opposition’s demands to reconsider the law. These parties, which enjoy significant popular support, include the Oromia Federal Congress, led by the repeatedly known opposition Godina.
Among the thorny records of this crisis is also the Tigray Regional Government’s rejection of a federal decision to change the leadership of the army’s Northern Command, which is based in the region, and includes leaders known for their sympathy for the problems. of the region against the federal government and Eritrea over border disputes and allegations of Eritrean interference in the region. The Northern Command includes more than half of the total personnel of the Ethiopian Armed Forces.
These measures have strengthened the convictions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front that Abiy Ahmed is weakening the region and seeks to monopolize power. The dispute over budget transfers is also a major issue in the conflict between federal authorities and the Tigrayan government. And because the federal government considers it illegal to hold elections in the region; Decides to stop funding the executive branch of the Tigrayans and instead direct it directly to local administrations; Which infuriated the leaders of the region.
Possible repercussions of the conflict
With the launch of three missiles, originating in the Tigray region, against the Eritrea capital Asmara on November 14, 2020, the conflict between the federal government and the region threatens to expand and spread not only within Ethiopia, but also outside of it to regional countries. In light of the new alliance between Addis Ababa and Asmara – following the signing of the peace agreement between the two countries in June 2018 and subsequent reciprocal visits between the leaders of the two countries, the most recent of which was the visit from Afewerki to the Renaissance dam in October 2020, the first visit of a foreign president to the dam – May become a military alliance and joint operations against Tigray. There is evidence of this, such as the Addis Ababa reception for several Eritrean military advisers. However, this issue may require greater regional involvement in the conflict, as Egypt may be in favor of the Tigray region, with the aim of influencing the Ethiopian political decision regarding the Renaissance dam, which Cairo considers a threat to their national security, and also to respond to the emerging alliance between Addis Ababa and Asmara. But these possibilities have yet to be realized. Despite the issuance of appeals requesting international diplomatic intervention to prevent the deterioration of the situation, especially since its continuation would threaten the fragile political cohesion in Ethiopia and would put the federal state at risk of disintegration, international attention has so far been limited to calls for restraint from the United Nations and the African Union.
In light of the rejection of some northern leaders of the Ethiopian army to federal military intervention in the region, there is a possibility that the situation will deteriorate further, especially with the development of sentiments in the Tigray region in favor of secession, especially since the federal constitution provides for this right, and regional leaders have repeatedly raised the issue. However, this is unlikely to happen unless the situation escalates and international mediation and interventions fail to stop the conflict. The trend towards secession is acceptable to many ethnic groups within Ethiopia. But the federal government is not likely to sit idly by as it watches the country on its way to disintegration; The federal government will make any attempt at secession illegal; Because he considers that the current executive authority of the Tigray region has been formed illegally. The region’s efforts towards secession and independence would trigger secondary conflicts with the Amhara ethnic group (whose leadership is currently allied with Abiy Ahmed) due to disputes over land that Tigray annexed from the Amhara region a few decades ago.
In the absence of a political solution to the conflict between the federal government and the authorities of the Tigray region, the crisis may escalate, which carries great risks that threaten the unity of the country and regional stability, especially with the increasing difficulty of separating the internal tensions and regional conflicts in the region.
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