The Syrian Refugee Conference … a Russian document for political breakthrough |

Damascus / Moscow- Russia has made every effort to hold an international conference on Syrian refugees, which began Wednesday in the capital Damascus, where President Vladimir Putin sent his special envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, on ferry visits to Baghdad, Amman. and Beirut, to mobilize support for the conference.

During the last period, Moscow has intensified its diplomatic efforts to hold the conference, aiming to find a new path that takes many rounds and occupies public opinion, without having a direct impact on changing the rules of engagement in Syria, similar to the Astana meetings, which gave Moscow the opportunity to grasp the threads of the Syrian crisis.

But his efforts appear to have been unsuccessful, and many observers believe that Moscow is once again proving that it is incapable of devising realistic and reasonable political solutions that satisfy the parties to the Syrian crisis, presenting the same ideas in multiple versions.

Moscow has been trying, for some time, to repeat the same tactic, but this time under the heading of “the return of the refugees”, taking advantage of the American concern about the presidential elections, the chronic indifference of Europeans, and the exit of the Arab League of the Circle of Action and Influence.

On the contrary, some analysts believe that Russia has already known how to strike a chord with the refugees this time to make many Syrians who have been reduced by the camps to think seriously so that they are under the umbrella of the Syrian regime after they left the supporters of the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, led by the United States and his “troublemaker son.” Turkey.

What does Moscow want?

Since its outbreak in March 2011, the Syrian conflict has caused the displacement and displacement of more than half of the population within and outside the country, including more than five million and 500 thousand refugees who fled mainly to neighboring countries registered before the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

And after the Syrian regime made some headway in the last two years, especially after the United States began to withdraw from northern Syria, it became clear that Bashar al-Assad is trying to play on some other issues, to legitimize it, and In coordination with his ally Russia, he chose the Syrian refugee crisis.

At the opening of the conference held in the Umayyad Palace for conferences, al-Assad accused Western countries and others in the region of exploiting the conditions of Syrian refugees “the most horrible exploitation and turning their humanitarian cause into a bargaining chip. politician”. He said: “The question of refugees in Syria is a made-up question, since the history of Syria, for centuries, has been devoid of collective asylum.”

This position is consistent with what Moscow has been seeking to achieve during a special period, with more pressure on the Turks occupying northern Syria, while undermining any more important role for Iran, which is a major ally of Damascus.

There are goals that Russia hopes to hold a conference for Syrian refugees, the main one being to circumvent the political process as it has constantly bypassed international tracks, giving the Syrian opposition a kind of party in exchange for the Assad regime. .

Analysts believe that after Moscow was unable to hold the conference two years ago, today the attempt to hold it is repeated without presenting new ideas, projects and visions, its aim is to divert attention from the political process, but that is not all.

It appears that profiting from the money that Russia will raise on behalf of Syrian refugees to fund the Assad regime, which appears to be on the verge of bankruptcy, is the most prominent goal, and it will work to circumvent the Caesar Act, which includes US sanctions. to the Assad regime and its aides, entering or smuggling money, materials and all that. The regime needs as help for the refugees.

The most important thing is to send a message to the world that Syria is under Russian tutelage, as Moscow wished to send invitations to the conference on behalf of the Russian Defense Ministry, and this is a confiscation of the Syrian decision that the Russians have always praised its legitimacy.

Moscow also wants to limit the aid provided to Syrian refugees through the regime’s channels only, after the Russians managed to close one of the humanitarian crossings in northern Syria, so that it remains a single crossing.

Since its military intervention in 2015, Russia has sought to shape the Syrian scene in a way that allows it to take control and has relied on its air supremacy, support for Iranian militias on the ground, and use of the politics of “scorched earth”, which has been able to shift the balance of military forces in favor of the regime at the expense of the opposition.

After achieving military supremacy, and while the Iranians pursued a policy of displacing the population from their land, as Turkey did, the largest demographic shift in modern history occurred, as those countries pushed millions of residents from Ghouta and Homs to Idlib, which remained on the side of the opposition. Simultaneously, the Russians carried out a series of “reconciliations”, a process of subjugation of those who rejected the forced displacement of the Assad regime.

Condemnation and absence

The head of the Turkish-backed Syrian interim government, Abd al-Rahman Mustafa, condemned the holding of the conference as an orchestrated stunt, saying it “aims to obtain funding from the international community under the name of ensuring the return of the Refugees and Reconstruction “, accusing Russia of looting these funds as compensation in exchange for the support it gave the regime by bombing cities. Syrian weapons of all kinds.

International human rights organizations believe that the cessation of battles in various areas of Syria does not mean they are ready for the return of the refugees in light of their lack of infrastructure and services and their fear of violations.

The Russian president’s envoy avoided visiting Turkey, despite the fact that it is home to some four million Syrian refugees, which is more than half of Syrian refugees, and the Syrian opposition believes that the fact that Moscow has not invited Turkey as much as to Europe is an indication of the lack of seriousness, and that the Russians do not aim to solve the refugee problem.

In the midst of that, the United States remains concerned about the presidential elections, which were held earlier this month and has not yet officially announced its results, as it was unable to express its position at the conference, but in any case does not want to meddle in this file, so it stays on the rope. Communication with Moscow.

But the US envoy for Syria affairs, James Jeffrey, whose resignation was announced by Washington last Monday as his retirement approaches at the end of November, recently said that “the solution in Syria will only be in accordance with Resolution 2254. of the UN, related to a ceasefire and reaching a political agreement “.

Following a briefing by the UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, to the Security Council on October 27, the US mission to the United Nations indicated that the Syrian regime is an obstacle to the UN envoy’s efforts to celebrate the fourth round of work of the Constitutional Committee.

The mission called on the Assad regime to stop attacking Syrians, who have returned to their areas of control, and to create conditions that allow refugees to return safely, voluntarily, dignified and timely to the country, in a clear reference to the difficulty of returning the refugees without formulating a final solution.

Russia tried to persuade Europeans to finance the reconstruction process under the pretext of the return of refugees, but the European position, like that of most countries in the world, was reluctant to discuss reconstruction before it was completed. achieve political change in accordance with Resolution 2254 and others.

Moscow has been trying for some time to repeat the same tactic, but this time under the heading of “the return of the refugees”, taking advantage of the American concern about the presidential elections and the chronic apathy of Europeans.

However, it appears that the Russians are determined to circumvent the international will, especially after they achieved partial success in narrowing down the political process by focusing only on the constitutional committee.

Neighboring countries, especially Iraq and Jordan, avoided making promises of participation, and on the other hand, Lebanon showed its desire to assist through the statements of its president Michel Aoun, who emphasized that his country is the most affected by the ongoing crisis. displaced Syrians, and that it can no longer bear this burden, especially with the exacerbation of the financial and economic crises. In the Lebanese interior.

The return of the displaced Syrians is one of the priorities of the Lebanese president and his Free Patriotic Movement party. In fact, in recent years, the return of hundreds of people has been organized in batches after direct coordination with Damascus, but this path has faltered.

On the other hand, Jordan does not appear enthusiastic about the return of the refugees until there is an international agreement, and observers say that Amman, despite frequent conversations by its officials about the burden of asylum, was largely benefiting from the situation at the level of international financial support in light of the financial crisis it is suffering.