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With the start of the countdown to the US elections, which will take place on November 3 of this year, the world is waiting to know who will win the office of president of the United States and thus predict the next American role in world politics.
Far from the environment of competition between the Republican candidate, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and his rival, the Democratic candidate, former vice president, Joe Biden, the issue of announcing the electoral results will not be the same as on previous occasions, but it continues being a subject of controversy in the country.
US President Donald Trump said last week, speaking to reporters as he left Andrews Naval Air Force Base, that it would be “better to announce the winner in the November 3 election than to count the votes during two weeks”.
However, in the 2020 elections, there was an increase in the number of those who cast their vote by mail, in light of the Corona pandemic.
Early voting rates exceeded the figures recorded in previous years, as many voters preferred to fill out their ballots in advance to avoid waiting in long lines on Election Day, which takes place in light of the Covid-19 epidemic. By mid-Friday, around 84 million people had cast their votes.
But even without this, the vote counting process doesn’t begin until the polls close on Election Day, which can take days or even weeks.
Even assuming that the count ends on the same day, the official announcement may take more than a month, especially since the result of the general elections is not the decisive factor in determining the winner, but rather their obtaining of 270 votes in the electoral college. which includes a total of 538 members.
Fears of chaos
In case of an intense battle and the results are delayed, some fear that the supporters of the candidates will take to the streets to demand the annulment of the opponent’s victory.
In an indication of the tension that prevails throughout the country with the election date approaching, several stores have taken refuge in several American cities, including New York and Washington, DC, fearing that the expected demonstrations will turn in riots.
On Saturday, Trump expected “chaos in our country.”
The president’s tone was not reassuring, as he had repeatedly refused to state clearly whether he would hand over power peacefully if he lost the election, according to Agence France-Presse.
Biden, for his part, had said that “fraud is the only way you can lose the election to Trump.”
But he indicated that he would accept the result, whatever it was.
No election day results
According to a report published by ABC News’ “Five Thirty Eight” website, it is likely that “we do not know who won the presidential election on the same day.”
He explained that counting ballots by mail can take longer than ballots at the centers, not to mention that there is no single rule that governs all states in the way they handle the counting process.
He pointed out that some of the results that will be announced on the first day will be final, especially in states where there is a strong dependence on voting with ballots, since the counting of the votes of the electoral colleges is in principle more likely to give Preliminary results that show the victory of the Republicans, especially with the majority of them heading to the polls. On this day, not by mail.
One third of the states
A third of the US states, specifically just 16 states, are likely to be able to complete the vote count on Election Day, such as Florida, Howie, Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Tennessee.
While about 24 states will be able to count the majority of the votes on November 3, but not all, such as Maine, Massachusetts, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona.
And counting votes in about 10 states takes more than a day, and maybe weeks, especially in states like New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, DC, and the state and California.
Figure 10
Ten states are expected to win the presidential election as voters shift their loyalties between the Republican and Democratic parties, according to an AFP report.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Iowa and Ohio played a significant role in Donald Trump’s victory in 2016.
Polls show that Biden may pressure traditionally Republican states like Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Texas to switch allegiance to support the Democratic Party this year.
Until December
The publication of the election results is not the end of determining who the new president is, and it will still need to be approved by the United States Congress in December, a process that could take four months, said Amy Dacey, director of the Sane Institute. of Policy at American University.
In an interview with “Voice of America,” he indicated that the entire process, from election day to revealing who the new president is, could take about four months.
Leah Mirkvaki, a specialist in American politics at the University of Mississippi, said legal procedures must be followed and made clear that pressure to announce the winner’s name on Election Day would spell mistrust and confusion.
He did not rule out that some are suing the states to pressure them to announce the result on election day.
Mirkvaki indicated that knowing the final name of the new president will not take place before December, when the electors who make up the capital’s electoral college will meet to officially cast their votes to elect the president and vice president, which is what happens. the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, which coincides with On this December 14.
230 million American voters
There are 230 million Americans eligible to vote in the presidential election, although most of them do not actually participate.
But the 2020 elections could see a record turnout.
Early voting rates exceeded the figures recorded in previous years, as many voters preferred to fill out their ballots early to avoid long lines on Election Day in light of the Covid-19 epidemic.
By mid-Friday, around 84 million people had cast their vote.
Handwritten letter
The law provides for the access of the president-elect’s team to a large number of files, but ultimately, everything depends on the good will of the outgoing team, mainly the president. Sometimes it is difficult to erase the effects of an electoral campaign.
There is a famous story in Washington, during the transition between the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush teams in early 2001, the letter “W” was damaged or removed from many computer keyboards by members of the outgoing team, according to AFP.
On the other hand, the transition in early 2009 between the George W. Bush and Barack Obama teams is often presented as an example of what should happen, despite the deep political differences between the two men, according to AFP.
Of course, it is easier for a president to maintain two terms and thus leave power without being defeated at the polls, to facilitate the transfer of power.
“It’s easier to start early, and the transition becomes part of his performance, and he makes sure to leave a good image,” Martha Kumar, a researcher specializing in presidential transitions, told AFP.
But there is an exception to this rule. Republican President George HW Bush, who served one term, decided to leave, leaving a good impression by transferring power to Democrat Bill Clinton.
And if the handwritten letter George HW Bush left in the Oval Office has become a tradition, nothing is as great as what he wrote on January 20, 1993.
“Dear Bill, I wish you much happiness here. I have never felt the loneliness that some of our presidents have spoken of,” wrote Bush Sr., adding: “I am not good at advising, but don’t let the critics put you off.”
He also wrote: “Your success is now a success for our country. I am with you from the bottom of my heart. Good luck.”
And if he is defeated, will Donald Trump leave a message for Joe Biden? This raises many questions about its content, especially after this intense competition, which included an exchange of accusations and harsh statements.
