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Dr .. Basil Hajj Jassim – Arab Independent
It appears that the Moscow-sponsored deal a few days ago saved Armenia and saved the face of the authorities in Yerevan, and the Armenian approval of this deal came as a result of them realizing that their army could no longer maintain the reality that had established with direct support from Russia, during the first Karabakh war in the early 1990s.
On the other hand, the agreement did not allow Azerbaijan to achieve a complete military victory, as it was about to achieve it within a few days of its control of the strategic city of Shusha, the second largest city in the Nagorno Karabakh region, and the question of decisive victory was only a matter of time.
Great chances of success
The chances of success of the Russian-sponsored agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in coordination with Turkey, compared to previous agreements, which were failed negotiations for 28 years.
What distinguishes this agreement from the previous ones is that there is a timetable, despite the presence of ambiguity in the implementation mechanisms of some of its provisions on the situation of the Armenian population in the region, which may have a special status within of the geography of Karabakh, since nothing has been clarified about it, either politically or militarily, except for the entry of Russian peacekeepers into it, in addition to their stationing in other areas and points on the lines of contact, with the provision to open a corridor linking this region with Armenia under Russian supervision, in exchange for a corridor also supervised by Russia, linking Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan region through Armenian lands, Likewise, the return mechanisms for Azerbaijani refugees who were displaced from their lands during the wars of the 1990s are unclear, as their number is estimated at around one million people.
We must wait several weeks, otherwise we will be facing only one phase of this conflict that has spread since the late 1980s, when its battles began with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The main title of this stage will be “Preventing the Second Karabakh War”, in which it was clear that the balance tips in favor of Baku, which made up for much of its loss during the first war, but as they say: “Satan can be in the details. “
the agreement
The announced agreement stipulated a complete and complete ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan, starting at midnight on November 10, and the Azerbaijani and Armenian armies also remained in their positions, the parties pledging to exchange prisoners of war.
The agreement stipulates that Armenia will return Kilbajar to Azerbaijan on November 15, the Lachin region on December 1, 2020 and the opening of a five-kilometer-wide corridor from Lachin, connecting Karabakh with Armenia. By November 20, Yerevan must hand over the Agdam region to Baku and part of the Gazakh region of Azerbaijan.
Under the agreement, a Russian peacekeeping unit consisting of 1,960 soldiers, with their firearms, 90 armored personnel carriers and 380 special teams, will be deployed along the line of contact in Karabakh and along from the corridor “Lachin”. The Russian force will also be deployed simultaneously with the withdrawal of the Armenian army, and its stay will be limited to five years, with automatic renewal for additional five-year periods, if neither party to the agreement decides to withdraw from it, and to monitor its implementation. , the Peacekeeping Center will be deployed to monitor the ceasefire. .
Azerbaijan regained control of all the territories that Armenia occupied in 1992 outside of Karabakh, and will also keep within Karabakh the lands it recovered during this war, including the strategic city of Shusha, while the Armenians will maintain control of the rest of the region. , as well as the possibility of using the “Lachin” corridor, which will be controlled by the Russian forces to communicate with the Republic of Armenia.
Guarantee
The big question today revolves around the guarantees for the implementation of this agreement, after the lack of mutual trust between Baku and Yerevan, and it is also imperative to monitor the internal situation in Armenia, since the current government may collapse or be overthrown. . Many within Armenia today call the “agreement of shame” for what happened. The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, signed it with the presidents of Russia Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and whoever comes to power will oppose this agreement, and here the matter will become more complicated, with the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the heart of the conflict, so it is necessary to wait until the start Next month, which is the deadline for the withdrawal of Armenia from the three occupied regions of Azerbaijan, and after that date the picture will clear up, the devil will come out of the details and the political map within Armenia will also be revealed.
At the same time, after the signing of the tripartite declaration, several questions remain controversial. The statement states that the Armenian military units will leave Karabakh, so is it the army of the Republic of Armenia or the Armenian armed formations and militias in the region? Divergent interpretations can exacerbate the conflict at any time.
If the terms of this agreement are fully met, it will be a historic peace agreement that ended a conflict that lasted decades ago, and whose battles began with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Azerbaijan will be able to free three regions of its lands without firing. one shot, and this is a great political achievement, which will be safe with him. The war in the South Caucasus will go down in history, as it is the first time that a country on the map after the world war has been able to regain its occupied lands after the failure of 28 years of negotiations, and implement the Security Council resolutions. and international resolutions through its military might.
The deal is a great victory for Moscow
The only certainty today is that the agreement is a great victory for Moscow, and to a lesser extent for Ankara, since Russia was able to show its strength without linking with the parties of the “Minsk Group”, and without agreements with Turkey, Iran or the West. , and was able to stop the second Karabakh war, and thus Russia will strengthen its position. In the region, it controls transport between Armenia and part of Karabakh, and between Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani region enclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, and Russia has secured the main player in any future negotiations between the two parties.
Although Turkey was not mentioned in the joint statement by the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, the President of Azerbaijan announced the deployment of Turkish peacekeepers in the region, and it is likely that we may witness the establishment of a Turkish base in the lands. of Azerbaijan to create a balance and put pressure on Yerevan and Moscow, as it will be. Part of the coordination center for monitoring the ceasefire in the region, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, and Turkey has already surpassed its previous participation as a regular member of the “Minsk Group” of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is leading the solution to the Caucasus conflict.
There was a common strategic goal for Moscow and Ankara together, which was to avoid any role for players from outside the region, especially Washington and Paris, as the United States and France partnered with Russia, led by the Minsk Group, which has been leading the negotiation process on the ongoing conflict for 28 years, and Turkey’s interference in This group is a regular member. French President Emmanuel Macron has tried to exploit this conflict to strengthen his country’s position within the European Union, amid the vibrations his foreign policy is exposed to in more than one forum.
It remains to be said, whether the tripartite agreement successfully stopped the war in the South Caucasus, although the conflict has been effectively frozen for an indefinite period of time, the objective reasons for the outbreak of a new war still exist and the legal solution of the case. Karabakh remains elusive.
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