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Ghassan Charbel wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat:
It is not an exaggeration to say that they are “weeks of fire”. American elections are not just about Americans. The man who will come out of the polls will be considered a “global village” cop, even if he rejects the description and the role. The date of the American election is more important than all other dates. More important than political quotas in other parts of the world, and more important than all the sporting and artistic events that attract people’s attention on various continents.
They are “hot weeks” because waiting there is heavy. The leaders of countries large and small are equal in this wait. Vladimir Putin cannot ignore this date. The name of the American president affects his country, his image, his military spending and his position in the world. President Xi Jinping is definitely walking on hot coals. You cannot forget that Donald Trump prefers in his speeches to call “Corona” “the Chinese virus.” Trump also claims that China will have to pay the price for what it has done. The teacher from Beijing cannot deny that Trump has imposed a new language when addressing his country. He forced her to make some business concessions to avoid an open round of coups. Trump’s stay in the White House would present Mao’s party with very difficult elections. Perhaps that is why the architect of the inauguration of the Chinese mainland half a century ago, Henry Kissinger, issued warnings, recalling the climates that preceded the First World War.
They are also “warm weeks” in Europe. “Covid-19” repeated its attacks on the old continent. It killed more people, drained the healthcare system, and shook the confidence of Europeans in their countries and institutions. The epidemic has compounded the pain of a continent already suffering from British betrayal, Turkish blackmail, and open fires in or near the Mediterranean. Confused continent. He is afraid of the President of the United States when he acts as a soloist who upsets the Western orchestra with his individualistic and selfish style. He is also afraid of becoming hostage to Russian gas or the sanctions imposed by the Tsar with his opponents, the last of whom is Alexei Navalny.
They are also “warm weeks” in the Middle East. It is no exaggeration to say that Iranian leader Ali Khamenei counts the hours between the elections. It cannot forget that Trump has exhausted the Iranian economy, forcing the regime to practice brutal repression to break the protests of citizens who are fed up with the deterioration of their living conditions and their national currency and the exhaustion of the country’s capabilities in role play. Khamenei cannot forgive Trump for making a decision that would be difficult for others to make, which was to remove General Qassem Soleimani from the equation. It is a more difficult decision than the decision to kill Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Nor does he forget that his country has not yet dared to undertake a response equivalent to the magnitude of the murder, despite its commitment to do so.
Turkey is also concerned about waiting anxiously. It is clear that the policy of blackmailing Europe with waves of refugees, interfering with mercenaries, penetrating maps without permission, planting mercenaries on them and waving forcibly to demarcate the borders of wealth in the seas, raised Europe’s concern over “ recklessness ” of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies and increased the conviction that he should be punished. It is natural for Ankara to await the results of the US elections to learn the extent of the damage to its relations with Washington due to the introduction of Russian missiles into the Atlantic house.
Israel is also waiting. It is not at all suggested that the White House master is hostile to the Hebrew state or is willing to slow down or limit its policies. Israel wants more than that. He wants to read the events of the region and its future with the same glasses and the same vocabulary. Here, the style of the president can interfere with approaching alliances and the degree of commitment to them.
Riyadh is also interested in the American elections. The strict policy of the Trump administration toward the widespread Iranian attack in the region deprived Tehran of revenue that it could use to expand or consolidate the attack. The Trump administration understood Iran’s attempts to surround Saudi Arabia, especially through the Yemeni side, and the role it assigned to the Houthis there. Of course, Saudi Arabia has an interest in maintaining strong relations with the US administration, regardless of the name of the president. On the other hand, the United States has a real interest in establishing a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia as a country with economic weight and political influence, especially in the Arab and Islamic worlds. Cairo is also worried about waiting for the results. Certainly, you will not want to see in Washington again approaches similar to those that appeared during the era of Barack Obama and his reading of the change in the region and the forces that can participate in it.
The heaviness of “warm weeks” increases in countries that have become open spaces and boxes for the exchange of messages, especially with America. In Beirut, many believe that the new Lebanese government will not be born before the US elections, despite the proliferation of analysis following the launch of “technical” negotiations to demarcate the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel. In Syria, there is talk that Damascus’s exit from its international isolation depends on the results of the US elections, especially if it reduces the climates of confrontation with Tehran.
The “weeks of fire” are clear in Iraq. Non-state forces are not allowing Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi to catch his breath. Missiles aimed at the Americans or the Green Zone. Packages and threats. A new practice is to rekindle Shia-Sunni sensibilities, particularly through the massacre in the Balad district of Salah al-Din governorate. This coincided with a return to tension in the relationship with the Kurdish component.
The US elections scheduled for the first week of next month added embers to the embers. The entire world lives in painful waiting for a Corona vaccine. Many believe that the date is approaching. That is why the world entered “warm weeks” after what it heard from Trump and Moscow as well. The epidemic has shaken maps and swallowed up budgets, causing funerals and waves of unemployment. It also shook institutions, convictions, habits, education, medicine, and investment. How much the world yearns for the good news that announces the end of the embers of waiting for the vaccine. American coals are another story.
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