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The weeks are crucial in determining the fate of the Iranian nuclear deal, while the positions of the participating countries still vary between adhering to it as is or renewing some of its provisions.
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The question of Washington’s return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action remains unresolved
The Iranian nuclear deal unleashed an international political whirlwind since its signing in 2015, through Washington’s withdrawal in 2018, and did not end with the administration of new US President Joe Biden announcing his desire to reactivate it.
Six years have passed since the agreement came into force, which required about 20 months of negotiations, but its fate today is more at stake than any other day. After Washington withdrew and imposed harsh sanctions on Tehran, the latter set February 21 as the deadline to take measures to lift the sanctions and avoid the expulsion of Inspectors from the International Energy Agency.
Until the reality of the return to work is clear, these are the most important positions expressed by the parties to the agreement:
U.S
The issue of Washington’s return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) remains unresolved in form and mechanism, while it is shrouded in obstacles that do so “from a great distance”, in the words of the director of National Security of the United States, Avril Haines.
Despite President Joe Biden’s promise to return to the agreement repeatedly, during his election campaign, and to repeat his promise to lift sanctions against Iran should the latter return to the agreement, after his victory, things they began to turn towards more complications with the issue of renegotiation and expansion of the nuclear program Include parts and other issues.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in his first statement on the deal, was quick to link the commitment to the deal to work toward a “stronger deal” that includes the ballistic missile program and policies. from Tehran who are “destabilizing the Middle East.” as he himself said, an issue on which Iran has always made clear its refusal to negotiate.
The United States suspends its return to the nuclear deal on “Tehran’s fulfillment of obligations,” as Blinken put it, and confirms that its return hinges on the return of Iran, which has maintained its obligations despite the many dangers it nearly pushed. . to withdraw from it, such as the assassination of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, and the US sanctions that included dozens of people and entities, and recently the assassination of scientist Mohsen Fakhryzadeh.
Some commentators saw the appointment of one of the backers of the nuclear deal in the tenure of former President Barack Obama, Robert Malley, as special envoy on Iran, as an expression of Biden’s desire to return to the nuclear deal, but this appointment may have another. explanation: What if the appointment of Mali aims to strengthen diplomacy in the negotiations with Iran for a new agreement?
This vagueness so far in Washington’s position has led some commentators to question Washington’s intention to achieve what it promised and to claim that it will not entirely renounce using the sanctions imposed by the previous administration to pressure Iran to make basic concessions. , especially with regard to stopping uranium enrichment by 20%. And abandon all the enriched uranium in your arsenal.
Iran
Iran, led by Sheikh Hassan Rouhani, wants to return soon to the nuclear deal, which would mitigate the damaging effects of US sanctions on various sectors of the economy, including the health sector, and confirms the validity of the “bet” of Rouhani on a “diplomatic solution” with Washington.
The Iranian president announced earlier that “the way is open” for the US government to return, and that “it has chosen the right path and we are ready,” a position that most Iranian officials have adhered to. including Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who considered that the US president faces the “opportunity to” return to the deal “abandoned by his predecessor, and if he does so,” Iran will also fully comply with its obligations. “.
However, Iran’s welcome to restore the 2015 agreement is limited by complete opposition to any proposal calling for a new negotiation or the return of Washington without a comprehensive lifting of the sanctions imposed by the United States.
Officials fear that the Biden administration will avoid fulfilling all its obligations to the deal, like previous administrations, and that is why Shura Council Chairman Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf suggested abolishing the sanctions before reverting to the “unholy” deal.
The most prominent position announced by Ali Khamenei, affirming his commitment to support allies and friends of the region, which cuts the possibility of expanding the terms of the agreement to include this issue, and his indication that Tehran “does not insist on The United States returns to the agreement, but is only interested in lifting the sanctions. ”
Therefore, Iran considers that the responsibility to reactivate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action rests with Washington, from which it withdrew in May 2018, and expresses its astonishment at the parties that require it to assume its responsibility towards the agreement while “the ball is in United States Court “.
Tehran always affirms its rejection of any new negotiations that impose different terms to the “2015 agreement” or include other parties to the agreement, considering that the main problem from Iran’s point of view is “the US withdrawal and the imposed sanctions.” and not the agreement itself.
China and Russia
The two countries participating in the signing of the nuclear agreement agree to support Tehran’s position on the “unconditional” return of Washington, and are clearly opposed to the withdrawal of the agreement by the Trump administration.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed Moscow’s interest in “fully preserving this important document of agreement” and clarified that his country has a “common position” with Tehran to preserve it.
Russia’s deputy representative to the United Nations, Dmitry Poliansky, also stressed that Washington’s return to the nuclear deal “depends on a decision taken by the new US administration, which should not be conditional.”
As for China, its Foreign Ministry asked Washington to return to the agreement “without preconditions and as soon as possible,” in conjunction with the lifting of all sanctions imposed on Iran and on entities and individuals.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry submitted 4 proposals in this regard, the first of which is to firmly adhere to the agreement, promote the early return of the United States to it, and resolve differences fairly and objectively during the implementation of the agreement, and the fourth proposal is related to the adequate treatment of regional security issues.
European Troika
Contrary to the clarity of China and Russia regarding the immediate return of the agreement, the three European countries participating in the agreement (Germany, France and Great Britain) issued positions that show reluctance to decide whether or not to rework the agreement. .
Recently there have been changes in the position announced by the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, last July, saying that the parties to the nuclear agreement “must do everything necessary to preserve it.”
Although the European Union has expressed its desire to cooperate with Washington on the Iranian docket, and the US special envoy to Iran has begun speaking with officials from Britain, France and Germany to discuss ways to reactivate the nuclear deal, the statements of European officials. they reflect disparities within the European ranks, and a tendency to demand a new agreement instead of accession to the current agreement.
The most expressive statement on the European withdrawal from its commitments came from French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke about the “mistake” of excluding regional powers such as Saudi Arabia from the agreement, who called for their participation in the new agreement that would be “very tough. “towards Iran.
As for the German chancellor, he previously announced, in December, that “returning to the current agreement will not be enough,” indicating that the agreement should include additions “without nuclear weapons but also with a ballistic missile program that threatens the entire region.”
The UK did not deviate from the position of its European partners, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had previously called for changes to the nuclear deal, while this was accompanied by his call for Tehran to return to the deal.
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