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Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri made a simple “tactical mistake” when he got involved with his promise about the “Eid government” and within 48 hours, without relying on new data, and without reflecting the reality of what happened in his meeting with President Michel Aoun, to meet in The next day, he is forced to go from “preaching” the birth of a government before Christmas, to “becoming aware” of this possibility and announcing that the government will be deported until later on New Year’s Day, recognizing that two months after their assignment there are clear obstacles that prevent the issuance of government decrees.
Hariri justifies his propaganda and marketing of the positive atmosphere in response to a direct request from President Aoun, who wanted to declare that there are positives to be completed. The results of the meeting before it took place … But circles near the Baabda Palace point to a cheeky game that Hariri is playing, a game of wasting time and refraining from hurdling and accusing the President of the Republic Michel Aoun and his successor Minister Gebran Bassil, indicating that President Aoun is deeply disturbed by Hariri’s actions after Every visit to Baabda follows a maneuver that puts the President of the Republic to shame on the issue of interruption and departure after the meeting to declare that the meeting was positive and there are signs of the birth of the government, so Aoun appears as the obstruction, and this is a tactical game that has been exposed and it is nothing more than an attempt to invest in the lost time.
It no longer matters to define the responsibilities or go into the tedious details in the government’s file and in the disputes over the portfolios and their political and sectarian distribution, which are coupled into two basic portfolios: Interior and Justice … The issue goes further and more important than the issue of bags and names. The depth of the crisis and the existence of reasons and hidden poles that delay the formation of the government and its migration for next year, among which the following stand out:
1 – The “paramount importance” of the new government, which has almost certainly become the last government of President Michel Aoun, and that it is the government that will administer constitutional and political rights, especially parliamentary and presidential elections. .and what comes after these rights in light of preliminary expectations and indications that they may not happen. Parliamentary elections in time before the outbreak of disagreement on the electoral law and with this pretext, which leads to the expansion of the current parliament, similar to what happened with the 2009 parliament, and the possibility of a presidential vacuum in the face of an entrenched disagreement on the next president and the alternative, similar to what happened after the end of the previous president’s term. Michel Suleiman.
The new government, which was initially described as a “mission government” that came for a specific mission (reform and salvation) and within a specified period (six months), is not like that, but is a “government of the end of the era “that will face exceptional tasks and situations. Therefore, it becomes important. In its composition and equation related to the accounts of the next phase and the post-Aoun phase.
2- The delicate and sensitive situation in which the two parties in the government battle, the President of the Republic and the President-designate, are present, which pushes them to be tough and not give in:
President Michel Aoun has two basic problems: the first is his problem with Hariri, that his trust in him has been seriously shaken since he failed him and evaded the obligations of the settlement after the revolution of “October 17”, and already he did not see in him the proper or proper partner in government, nor the one worthy of driving the rescue wheel and the stage. The most difficult in the history of Lebanon. And if Aoun reluctantly agreed to assign Hariri, he is still on guard and does not trust Hariri’s abilities and the possibility of coexisting with him again under the roof of power. The second problem for President Aoun is that he is concerned about Minister Gebran Bassil’s problem that he is facing a comprehensive and coordinated attack to isolate him and block the path to his presidential project, and that Hariri weakens him after US sanctions and He works to ignore and weaken him … Therefore, Aoun will not accept that the new government is used to break Basil. And inflict a political defeat on him, at a time when the Presidency of the Republic is under increasing pressure.
As for the Hariri problem, it is found elsewhere, but it is no less precise and difficult. Hariri is alert to the situation and is surrounded by internal and external conditions that make him unable to move forward or backward. Either way, there is a price to pay. If it wanted to form a government, it could only do so in accordance with the conditions of Aoun and Hezbollah, and if it did so, it would jeopardize its political and popular assets, as well as its Arab and international relations, especially with the United States, which it has over the head of the entire ruling political class, including Hariri, the sword of sanctions. It could be used for the remainder of Trump’s term if Hariri goes to a government in which Hezbollah participates and is under its influence and control.
But if Hariri decides to retire and apologize for not continuing with the task of training, then he risks his last chance to return to the prime minister on the eve of popular and political rights, and before situations where he is no longer in control. of initiative and leadership and he’s out of control … Hariri needs to stay in the “government equation.” “And leaving it this time is fraught with danger and the possibility of not returning. For this reason, he is determined to stay and continue in this situation, from not training and not apologizing for remaining in the equation until “God decides something that was in effect.”
3 – External factors and circumstances that do not play in the interest of the government and accelerate its birth. With the change in the US presidency there was a reversal of regional data, and the region came under the influence of a US transition phase, especially at the level of confrontation between Iran and America open to the possibilities of negotiation in the Biden era But preceded by the stage of gathering negotiation papers and strengths. Lebanon is part of the regional stage for this confrontation and a basic negotiating card in Iran’s hand. And Hezbollah will not give the Americans the government they want in Lebanon, and it will not give Hariri a chance to act from the victor’s position and the conditioner, and will not facilitate the government formation process unless it is established based on their vision and conditions, that is, the operations of a revised version of Hassan Diab’s government. On top of that, the French drive to form the government has waned after the Macron initiative in Lebanon faltered and became concerned about internal problems and external pressures. Thus, all signs lead to the belief that everyone is waiting for Trump to go. The White House and Biden received, and that the Hariri government will not be formed before next January 20.
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