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The French came to the conviction that in Lebanon they had to choose between the bad and the worst. The downside is that your political efforts for a solution are resumed regardless of the negative consequences that occurred and those that will come later, that is, practically speaking, ignoring all the disastrous political events in Lebanon and continuing to prepare for surgery! As for the worst, it is a declaration of the death of the initiative, and by announcing its end an acknowledgment of the failure that qualifies it to enter a political dead end. In the end, the French must choose!
The French initiative is now almost 3 months old and so far nothing has been achieved except an extension of the neglected crisis that regulates it. France’s political image had previously been damaged by the “ineffectiveness” of solutions in Lebanon. Then came the fatal blow after the messenger of fifteen hundred million Muslims was attacked, but Paris did not give up yet!
With regard to the Lebanese issue, fundamental amendments have been made to the “Lebanon Task Force” inside the Elysee Palace. He referred Emmanuel Boone to semi-political retirement in connection with his role on the record and removed Bernard Emié in his direct ability from him to resolve the update by leveraging the services of Emmanuel Macron’s senior adviser Patrick Durrell, in the hope that I could look for a solution somewhere.
It is no secret that Emmanuel Macron, president of France, sold the changes that included the “Lebanon Team” to the Lebanese themselves who were complaining about Bonn-Emier’s handling of the file of the French initiative. In fact, the former ambassador to Beirut, Bruno Fuchier, led a “restraint” that caused the rowdy couple to move away from the “Lebanese lane”, with the intention of removing obstacles and extending support for the initiative. Most likely, Macron expected to deal differently with the new French mediator and thus commit to a certain limit of playing on the brink, but it later turned out that the Lebanese are not docile.
Importantly, Macron can only deliver his last blow. Durrell has shipped to Beirut and has more than one file on his schedule. It is true that what is “outrageous” is the issue of reviving the French initiative, but there are other issues that are no less important, among them the reform of the image of France, which has been damaged by the publication of offensive images of the prophet Muhammad, and Dorell’s visit coincided with a “tsunami” of delegates visiting the region that cannot be separated at all. .
What appears to be the case so far is that the French delegate is not “spoiled”. In their meetings, he spoke in an inflexible French language. It became clear that the man came to seek answers from the parties about their perception of the French initiative and their intentions towards it: Are they still in favor of their solutions or are they looking the other way?
This question has its reasons, of course, and reasons lead to results. The shameful “Elysee”, 3 months after his initiative, wants to preserve his face, so he sent Dorell on a closer mission to investigate facts than to urge to do something. Prepare for something about the weight of the reaction. Continuing, Macron himself had previously announced, although ambiguously, that Lebanese politicians would be punished if they missed the opportunity of the “French solution”, and this punishment has its interpretations and mechanisms, which start from the inclusion of personalities in lists of specific sanctions that are said to be not the promise of US sanctions, and reach the circulation of names at the European level, such as the issuance of decisions that prevent the entry of certain personalities to the European Union.
On the other hand, some are spilling cold waters in Lebanon at the news of the French envoy’s visit. They say: How is Dorrell destined to succeed in a mission in which the elements of success of his boss, Macron, were not assured? This includes several dimensions, including that the visit is not primarily intended to contribute to any solution, but rather to communicate various messages, including those related to the Lebanese issue, such as informing the owners of the solution and linking that their failure to forming a government will react negatively and on more than one front, and launching the negatives will begin by postponing a conference. Support that France assigned to Lebanon indefinitely. Including it has a regional dimension, such as reforming the image of France, which has been damaged by terrorist attacks.
In practice, the language of pressure left the French side some time ago, even if the task force working on the formation of a home government tried to treat and tempt the advisor to the French president upon his arrival in Beirut with shocks. of government positivity, which seemed exaggerated and apparently did not pass to the newcomer.
In the end, the French initiative will be subject to an evaluation that will be recorded by the French delegate. The general impression in Lebanon is that the assessment will not satisfy the hopes of the political class, and there is a sense that the assessment, if written, will lead to a crisis with France with visible repercussions in Lebanon. Therefore, we began to notice an acceleration in the pace of work in the formation of government, maintaining a positive environment. Behind the pillars of the class, headed by the designated prime minister, Saad Hariri, they find in the loss of French support a double loss that affects a personal structure that will have double negative repercussions.
