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Events in Lebanon accelerate after Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adeeb cabled his apology for forming the government to Lebanese President Michel Aoun.
The first repercussions in the field of this apology were the sudden flight of the dollar exchange rate of about 7,500 pounds, breaking the ceiling of 8 thousand Lebanese pounds.
Politically, Adib’s apology warns of the collapse of the French initiative that adopted his mandate, and while opposition forces began to compete for responsibility for the faltering formation of the government, it was notable that most of them were eager to confirm continuity. of the effectiveness of the French initiative and working according to its agenda.
Therefore, President Aoun was quick to consider that “the initiative launched by the French president is still under way.” Also, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri emphasized that “the French initiative has not failed. Rather, the approach that leads Lebanon to ruin has fallen.”
At a time when opponents of the Shiite duo (Amal Movement and Hezbollah) tend to accuse it of obstructing the government formation process, the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, issued a statement saying: “No one adheres to the French initiative as much as we do, but there are those who stifled it in contradiction with all established principles.
As for the ally of the Shiite duo, head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, stressed the need to reactivate the French initiative, “with a president who agrees with the country, because no party president will lead Lebanon to the best” .
Who aborted Mustafa Adib’s government before he was born?
Lebanese political affairs researcher Wassim Bazzi (close to the Shiite duo) considers that this apology was not surprising, but rather natural “after Adib violated all constitutional axioms and Hariri’s control over him.” Bazzi believes, in a statement to Al Jazeera Net, that Adib’s departure from the government stadium appears to be a blow to France, but does not mean the downfall of his initiative.
Bazzi al-Hariri is accused of secretly working to thwart Adeeb, “in the hope that he himself would float back to power, at a time when his internal and external circumstances prevented it.” He said Adeeb applied the saying to him that “They took me out of my father’s house.”
But Mustafa Alloush, a member of the Political Bureau of the Future Movement, rejects this accusation and confirms that Hariri was working hard to make the French initiative succeed at all costs.
Alloush told Aljazeera Net that Adeeb’s apology was delayed 10 days after the end of the first deadline for the French initiative, and holds both the Shiite duo and President Aoun, with their political team, responsible for failing Adeeb, after who put the knot of the financial portfolio and the Shiite ministers in his face, and then paved the way for the knot of the Christian ministers. The slogan “the constitutional right to participate in training,” Alloush said.
On the other hand, Bazzi affirms that “everything that Hezbollah and the Amal movement demanded was a cumulative right over the last 3 decades, and they will not compromise their achievements under the sectarian regime that governs Lebanon.”
After the experience with Adeeb, Bazzi believes that the Shiite duo will become stricter in their demands, and also accuses the United States of beating Adeeb, especially at the political moment of what he described as “dropping the sanctions bomb.” to each of the former ministers Yusef Fenianios and Ali Hassan Khalil.
As for accusing former heads of government of controlling Adib in the performance of his mission, the Lebanese politician Khaldoun Al-Sharif confirms that each of them contributed from his position to facilitating the process of government formation in support of the French initiative .
According to Al-Sharif, it is necessary to return to Adeeb’s original mandate, which was based on the formation of a major government of non-partisan specialists that would undertake the transfer of the promised reforms from Lebanon to the bank.
Al-Sharif tells Al-Jazeera Net that Adib’s apology revealed the failure of the French initiative to form a government of specialists, by subjecting it to the blackmail of some political forces who demanded its representation in the government.
For his part, Bazzi hopes to reactivate the work of the interim government led by Hassan Diab, before moving on to the constitutional steps to appoint a new president to form the government, “especially after it became clear that France does not have enough experience to understand the realities of Lebanese politics and its historical complexities “.
President Aoun said that the initiative launched by the French president is still underway (Reuters)External factors hampered the French initiative
Al-Sharif does not expect an agreement to form a government in the near future, and it is likely that France knew in advance of a polite apology and therefore “will not give up easily on Lebanon due to the inability to form a government, in awaiting the consequences of the US elections. “
For his part, the professor of International Law and International Relations, Raif Khoury, travels to Iran to explain the path of obstructing the formation of the Adib government, given that the regional conflict is the main influence on the Lebanese reality.
In a statement to Al-Jazeera Net, it indicates that the facilitation of Adeeb’s assignment coincided with a different political environment at the regional and international level, and “at that time Iran needed to approve a vote in the Security Council on the end of the sanctions and the import and export of arms, thus facilitating, through Hezbollah, the assignment of Adeeb in Beirut before re-obstructing. “.
Khoury believes that all the attempts made by French President Emmanuel Macron in Lebanon have shown that Iran’s influence in Beirut cannot be underestimated, as it “succeeded in preventing the formation of the government by putting the Shiite ministers in the way.” In it, the Lebanese dossier is not one of Iran’s priorities at present, which, according to al-Khoury, means that Iran will not pressure Hezbollah to ease the way of the French initiative.
Khoury believes that France faces two options, either to renew its initiative to seek a president to be reappointed, or to resort to placing Hezbollah on the sanctions list, both political and military, and it is likely to go to the first possibility.
He said: “Macron can try to avoid the collapse of Lebanon entirely, because it will be reflected in him within France.” And since Hizbullah is playing on French weakness, according to Khoury, it will continue to put adverse conditions on the face of France, which does not want the Lebanese card to fall out of its hand.
The French initiative presented by Macron (center) continues to adhere to the Lebanese forces (Reuters)Beware of penalties
Right now, Khoury expects the United States to activate its sanctions in accordance with Israeli demands regarding the demarcation of the borders with Lebanon. God, and all political allies, with Christian allies at the helm.
On the other hand, Wasim Bazzi believes that Macron wants to show Lebanon a platform for a bigger project for him in the Mediterranean, in light of the great struggle for wealth and the confrontation between France and Turkey.
And relying on France’s pragmatism, Bazzi hopes Macron will quickly deal with a courteous apology by capitalizing on the mistakes he commissioned him, while Mustafa Alloush is afraid of forming a politically confrontational government led by Hezbollah, and that the French will surrender to that, and then “let them form the government alone and bear the consequences of that.” Alloush says.
The French presidency said that President Macron will hold a press conference tomorrow Sunday to discuss the political situation in Lebanon.
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