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French President Emmanuel Macron struggles to salvage his Lebanese initiative after putting his political balance on the scale by betting on the Lebanese political system to accelerate the formation of a “major government” aimed at passing necessary reforms and avoiding the planned collapse in the land of cedars. It is clear from the path of the formation of the future government that external and internal obstacles put the French initiative to the test and that they increase the chances of failure, and in any case, the occurrence of a breakthrough does not mean that the path of Mustafa Adib’s government be a paved road in the face of an unprecedented economic – monetary – social crisis, a crisis of the system, a crisis of role and a crisis of relationship. In the Arabian ocean. The worst thing about the French initiative is its lack of American support and Arab satisfaction, and its inability to trust the eligibility of Lebanese partners specialized in squandering opportunities and the role of the Iranian axis that takes Lebanon captive.
The situation worsened after the bombing of the destroyed port and the political-economic impasse deepened. As the country is on the brink of an abyss and collapse becomes a matter of time, the French president rushed to the impact of the disaster in an attempt to find a way out of the intractable crisis because he is haunted by history and a mixture of passion. and responsibility towards an entity established by Mandatory France a century ago and linked by cultural and humanitarian ties with its country, in addition to its geopolitical position. Emmanuel Macron, characteristic of the eastern Mediterranean region, where a new game of nations is taking place, tries to reserve an advanced position for his country in it.
There is no doubt that the “master of the Elysee” depended implicitly on the connection he wove with Iran, and perhaps he was betting that his open attitude towards him and his defense of the “nuclear deal” would make it easier for him with his Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, that is in force in the institutions simply “dialoguing with him and recognizing the representation”. Al-Shaabi for his political wing. However, it became clear over time that the political system, which was nearly knocked out after the “port scandal”, benefited from the French initiative to float its status, and that Hezbollah, which was in a difficult situation, won a precious time seven weeks (outside the deadline that separated us from the US elections) and the commitments made by the political leaders who had met with Macron in the Pine Palace are not being fulfilled. Thus, unsurprisingly, those who held the Lebanese regime facilitated the French role by agreeing to elect Dr. Adeeb as the designated head of government on the eve of Macron’s second visit earlier this month, but they came back and stifled the French initiative. with the devil’s help of details. The knot in the portfolio of the Ministry of Finance and its occupant was like the tree that darkens the forest of crisis. Disruptive system and external interactions.
After a simplistic comparison of the new French role with the Syrian role during the post-Taif era (noting that there is a big difference between the capabilities, methods and goals of both sides), some observers wonder what the reason for this is. French involvement in a complex and unsafe game with unreliable internal and regional players and they get to the point. Do you wonder if Paris lost its expertise in probing the depths of Lebanese politics and its ramifications, and will it forget Charles de Gaulle’s lesson on how to go to the East complex, or Jacques Chirac’s assessment of the promises and promises that Are they only necessary for those who request them?
It is likely that Emmanuel Macron and his team felt that the opportunity should not be missed, and that a sunken, looted and depleted Lebanon should be eager for French help, in light of a kind of international neglect and an American approach to dealing with the Lebanon as a detail within a regional strategy and not as an independent archive. However, these calculations, which were betting on an opportunity or a breach of default, did not take into account that American patience does not mean a green light and that Iran waiting for Biden’s Joe will not automatically facilitate the French mission, and that the quota system for the Lebanese system it hides all obstacles.
It soon became clear that the US sanctions against two of Hezbollah’s allies (advisers to Nabih Berri and Suleiman Franjieh), who abandoned the bet in Tehran for a unilateral French management of the Lebanese dossier, and soon the Lebanese Shiite duo entered, adhering to the financial portfolio and insisting on appointing his ministers in Vetó the spirit of the French initiative that speaks of a government of non-partisan specialists, in an effort to reproduce their part to facilitate the formation of the expected government.
Despite these obstacles, Paris seemed to hold on to its initiative as it realized that there is no alternative and that announcing its termination would mean leading Lebanon into the unknown. From here, following the words of President Michel Aoun about holding the club of former prime ministers responsible for obstruction due to its adherence to rotation in sovereign portfolios and refusing to link the financial portfolio to a specific sect, the French side lobbied to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri to launch an initiative in which he announced the only and last resignation of the Shiite community to receive The finance portfolio stipulated that the minister was one of the independents appointed by Dr. Mustafa Adeeb, who reinstalled the ball In the window of the Shiite duo. This does not mean that the game is purely domestic, but rather that it has regional and international complications.
It is clear that neither the Arab countries that are trusted to provide aid, nor the Western countries will be prepared for this in light of the reproduction of a government as Hezbollah or the Shiite duo wishes. In this context, it should be noted that the objection to what is happening in Lebanon was precisely expressed by the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz when he spoke about the port explosion and the deterioration of the Lebanese situation and the role of Hezbollah, in which he described as the Iranian terrorist and the need to disarm him in his speech before the “General Assembly” of the organization. United Nations through video technology.
In the same context, the US Undersecretary of State, David Hale, affirmed that “there will be no aid to Lebanon without changes, reforms and the end of Hezbollah’s control.” As for the International Support Group for Lebanon, it supported the positions of the French initiative to promote demining before the formation of the government.
In light of these facts, Hezbollah could weaken should the French initiative be brought down, as Paris will face (as it faces all those it considers obstructed) that if the government is not formed, there will be deliberate sabotage to save the Lebanon. At that point, the Lebanese political class will be exposed to US sanctions that could affect a broader segment of the political class, whose names have been linked to corruption and the facilitation of affairs with Hezbollah.
Thus, it seems that the French initiative without it has obstacles that are not only internal, but also great external. Acceptance of the demands of the Shiite duo will inevitably lead to a repeat of the experience of the Hassan Diab government with the Mustafa Adib government. Therefore, any government that heeds Hezbollah’s demands will be treated by Washington and Riyadh as the Hezbollah government, with its consequences and repercussions. So far, Paris has not revealed Plan B in the event that its initiative’s roadmap is foiled, and since our time is not a time of miracles, the Lebanese situation will escalate, awaiting imaginary bets on a unknown antidote.
