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Hassan Diab’s government was the latest manifestation of Hezbollah’s political power in Lebanon, and the latest indications of its political supremacy in various archives, and the decision to form governments and determine the fate of quotas. The expression of the party was evident on its disgust at the “failure to comply with the results of the parliamentary elections in the process of forming the government.” He possesses the majority with his allies, but is no longer able to do what he wants, whereas before he used to impose his will, even if the majority were with his opponents. The path taken by the Mustafa Adib government formation process indicates a major change in the political machinery, resulting in “the end of the era of the Khalileans.”
Hezbollah was attached to Lebanon through the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement. This era is destined to end, under American and Western pressure. Even the Russian position was remarkable when the Russian ambassador, Alexander Zaspiken, announced that Russia did not have any projects in Lebanon. And when the Russians don’t care, that means Syria can’t be interested. Russia, for example, did not provide any aid to Lebanon or announce its willingness to participate in rebuilding the port.
Whoever worked for months before forming a government completely loyal to him, can no longer fight except to obtain the Ministry of Finance, and can be handed over to a Shiite figure who does not count, as in the past, with the Shiite duo. This shows the magnitude of the change that took place in Lebanon. Also, there is a designated head of government who does not participate in detailed political discussions with Bassil, who has become a very weak position even within the movement or others. In contrast to the new facts, there are those who want to suggest the existence of an understanding between Iran and Turkey in Lebanon, investing in Ismail Haniyeh’s visit, but everything indicates that no influence will exist in the light of Franco-American influence.
Get out of Mar Mikhael’s understanding?
According to estimates, the government will be born next week, despite the words of Nabih Berri that the Shiite duo does not want to participate if the Amal Movement does not obtain the Ministry of Finance. This opens the door to two possibilities, either to agree on a Shiite figure for the ministry or to proceed to form a government without the consent of both. President Michel Aoun has come to the conviction that the United States of America will no longer tolerate the relationship with Hezbollah. Therefore, he could no longer continue to cover the party as he should. There are many changes that we will witness in the coming days. He knows that if he does not take a position that clarifies his departure from the Mar Mikhael agreement, he will face many difficulties, especially because what he receives from abroad regarding his relationship with the party and his support for it, will not give him anything in return, and not It will lead whoever it wants to the presidency.
Therefore, Basil will take positions that differ from the positions of the Shiite duo. It will not participate in the government or in the negotiations to form it. He will not insist on ministries and will stick to them. Only the President of the Republic will negotiate. Bassil will also declare distrust in this government. Basil’s positions will be linked to his obsession to avoid new sanctions. In the event that he does not adopt positions other than those of the party and indicates that he is distancing himself from it, then he will be sanctioned himself and all his relatives. Therefore, his position on Sunday will not be directed at the Lebanese, but at the international community, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in particular. Perhaps the last chance to avoid penalties is in the position you will announce and the path you will take.
On the other hand, Hezbollah is betting on whatever concessions it makes to invest in time, pending the US elections. If Trump returns, the party will face many difficulties, forcing it to make concessions. But if Joe Biden wins, the party and its successor, Iran, believe some of the pressure will be relieved. But there are estimates that are different from yours. Biden will not repeat the experience of Barack Obama, and the laws against Hezbollah in Lebanon have broad support from the Democratic and Republican parties. Therefore, it is not possible to bet on the abolition or the relief of sanctions.
All of this will lead Lebanon into a new era of political and economic mandate. Like all projects, they will be under the supervision of international institutions, particularly European ones, similar to what happened in Greece after its financial collapse.
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